In the last few weeks I've managed to get Henk Uijterwaal's 'dealer' software running on my PC, and I've started crunching numbers on a wide variety of topics (ranging from 'how often do we open the bidding' through 'what is third hand's HCP distribution if partner opens and we get overcalled' to 'what is the chance of landing in an 8+ card fit with an assumed fit preempt'). One big caveat is that it was too much work to attempt to fully emulate judgement in the bidding, so I simplified in the hopes of creating about an equal share of false positives and false negatives, keeping the total percentages reasonable (for example, instead of my normally aggressive weak two's I demanded that we have at least a 5-card suit (but we don't nearly open most 5-card suits with a weak two), no undisclosed 4cM (which we might sometimes have) and at least half our points in the long suit (which is also not always accurate) with 5-10 HCP and no rule of 20 opening).
A few sequences of Dutch Doubleton stood out as likely losers - allocating lots of valuable bidding space to infrequent hand types, which sometimes had completely fine alternative sequences as well. For example, consider the approximate opening percentages of each bid through 2NT in the spoiler1:
Among other things the 2♣ opening stands out as a sore loser. This bid is a necessary evil in natural systems, but reserving such a relatively cheap opening bid for a ~1/300 hand type conditional on nobody preempting us seems lousy. It is somewhat popular to include a weak option in this bid (usually a weak two in diamonds, reserving 2♦ for the multi, or alternatively a weak opening with at least 5-4 in the majors) but I don't like those options at all. They make it very risky to competitively/preemptively raise partner, and the 'both majors' version in particular forces opener to jump to 3M on 2♣-2♦* (pick your longest major if weak); ? with a strong unbalanced hand. They also give the opponents multiple bites at the apple when weak, which it almost always is.
So instead I've been browsing the system notes of Polish club players (Dan Neill's website helpfully has many system overviews). Some of these Polish club systems closely resemble Dutch Doubleton, giving me hope that there might be a hybrid system where I get to use my experience with Dutch Doubleton, but fold that nasty 2♣ opener into the 1♣ opening. The basic structure over 1♣ is:
1♦ - any weak hand (approx 0-5, 0-6 or 0-7 HCP depending on flavour), or a hand of any strength with natural diamonds, or a balanced hand with some values, support for clubs but no desire to hog the hand (e.g. 3=3=3=4 or 3=2=3=5). Optionally also some hands with both majors (in Dutch Doubleton), but this is infrequent and can be confusing.
1♥ - natural (4+), shows some strength (6+, 7+ or 8+, again depending on flavour), may contain a long minor (Walsh-style) if not GF.
1♠ - natural (4+), shows some strength (6+, 7+ or 8+, again depending on flavour), may contain a long minor (Walsh-style) if not GF.
Over 1♣*-1M opener rebids naturally (and is assured of some values opposite). Over 1♣*-1♦* opener rebids naturally but folds the 12-13 balanced hands into a 1M reply (in DD: always 1♥. In older DD systems as well as some of the Polish club systems: bid your longer major, 3+), so that 1♣*-1♦*; 1NT shows 17-19 NF.
The main differences compared to my Dutch Doubleton that stand out to me are:
- A 2♣ opening shows ~10-15, 6(+) clubs. Some pairs also include 4♦5♣ too weak to reverse. I think 4M6♣ is allowed always while 4M5♣ is not, or maybe there are just different ways to show this hand type and it is up to judgement/preference. The pairs who insist on 6(+) clubs seem to open 1♦ with 4♦5♣ and too weak to reverse (or you can treat the hand as balanced, if appropriate).
- This frees 1♣-1X; 2♣ to show 16+ not balanced, long clubs, artificial (and usually forcing) and includes all natural reverses with long clubs.
- This frees 1♣-1X; 2♦ as an artificial relay, conveying something along the lines of 'hey partner, I had a standard 2♣ opening'. It also frees up 1♣-1♦; 2M, 1♣-1♥; 2♠ and 1♣-1♠; 2♥.
Several Polish systems open 1♣ with any (say) 18+ hand, so that you don't need tools like Gazzilli over 1M openings, and can reap the benefits of (somewhat) limited openers. My goals are less ambitious: I just want to fold most 22+ hands in there. So far I've tried something simple (opponents silent):
- On the auction 1♣*-1♦*; ?, use the jumps to 2♥ and up identical to the standard auction 2♣-2♦; ?.
- On the auction 1♣*-1♥; ?, use 2♦* as an artificial relay forcing 2♥, and opener's next bid is identical to that of the standard auction 2♣-2♦; ?. Use 1♣*-1♥; 2♠* as an artifical GF relay establishing hearts as trumps. This loses all sequences starting 2♣-2♦; 2♥, but almost all of those contain natural hearts (I play Kokish here) so they fold into the 2♠ bid nicely. The only hand types that are now hard to show are the balanced hands that go through Kokish normally.
- On the auction 1♣*-1♠; ? use 2♦* as an artificial relay forcing 2♥, and opener's next bid is identical to that of the standard auction 2♣-2♦; ? (not 2♥). The auction 1♣*-1♠; 2♥* is the Kokish relay, and shows that opener has a hand that would have bid 2♣-2♦; 2♥ in standard.
I'm currently still looking for good rebid systems over 1♣*-1♦*; 2♣* and 1♣*-1M; 2♣* to untangle the reverses, keeping in mind these 2♣* rebids can be very wide ranging (from a minimum reverse to a decent 22-count), a good system over the natural 2♣ opening (most Precision systems have one, I'd welcome any and all recommendations) or general suggestions for changing up the approach. I currently also don't assign any meaning to the auction 1♣*-1♦*; 2♦. There is also a serious issue of interference over 1♣*, although I've tried to minimise that by not including a whole host of ~18-21 HCP hands regardless of shape.
Lastly it is interesting to note that modern Dutch Doubleton systems (as well as several natural systems) have already started using a version of this artificial 2♦ relay, using:
- 1♣*-1M; 2♦*-2♥ (forced); 2NT shows 17-19 balanced (GF, since partner shows 8+).
- 1♣*-1M; 2♦*-2♥ (forced); 2♠/3X shows a club-diamond reverse with a feature (optionally the 3♣ bid doesn't say anything about diamonds, a classical 'fake reverse', and just shows a GF hand with long clubs and no support for partner's major).
- 1♣*-1M; 2♦*-2♥; 2/3M (responder's suit) shows an artificial GF 4-card raise, allowing for better slam investigation.
- 1♣*-1M; 2NT shows the 'Bridge World Death Hand' with approximately 16+ HCP, a good long (6+) club suit and exactly 3-card support for partner.