[Cyberyeti]

smerriman, on 2019-January-25, 15:55, said:

You seemed to be implying it was a bad slam because the finesse might fail ("do you want to be in slam if the finesse fails"). This isn't true; it's a bad slam solely because it may go down when the finesse *works*.

6N can't go down if the finesse works, in fact it's with the odds by N.

[johnu]

smerriman, on 2019-January-25, 15:55, said:

You seemed to be implying it was a bad slam because the finesse might fail ("do you want to be in slam if the finesse fails"). This isn't true; it's a bad slam solely because it may go down when the finesse *works*.

LOL, nice try at intentionally trying to misinterpret my remark. OP wondered how to bid a slam on a hand that ended up making 12 tricks. I asked if OP would still want to be in slam if only 11 tricks were made. Seems simple enough to me. Apparently not for you.

[smerriman]

I'm not intentionally misinterpreting anything. The answer to "do you want to be in a slam if only 11 tricks were made" is often yes. I thought your question was rhetorical implying no, but I guess it was a genuine question, in which case I (unintentionally) misunderstood.

[IGoHomeNow]

4S was a slight overbid. That heart suit is really hard to love and the two doubletons with Jackx are also junky.

I think South really failed here. (Unless he knows North bids too much). Bet even then, I would rather give partner credit for his bids and if he fails too often, get a new partner.

Over 4S, South has ALL working cards. His lack of extra Spade length is the only problem. But no harm in checking for key cards. After 4NT, South finds out he is missing 2 key cards and bails at 5S after he counts the key cards a few times to make sure he is really missing 2. I don't think you can ever discover you are on a hook for 6. North's Spade T and fairly tame distributions in the other suits are needed to even bring it to 50-50. Without the Spade T, slam is much worse.

The reason it is sound bridge to avoid slams that require a single finesse lies in the fact that in most cases, more is needed than merely the finesse From a match points standing, the slam bid is usually top or bottom vs field average. This argues in favor of bidding it, since higher variance produces bigger (and smaller) scores. But if the play is at all tricky, simply making 6 in the field contract will be a decent result.

If playing IMPs you will consider state of the match, opponents, etc. If you are playing a better team, bid it. It may be your only chance to catch up. If you are ahead in a match against people who know gamesmanship, bid it.... THEY WILL. This is probably not true if playing victory points, since now losing big is actually worse than losing small.

But here....You could be off 2 key cards Slam is just not wise.