[Tramticket]

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You are playing in a club event, scored as cross-IMPs, against a pair of inventive players who tend to score fairly well.

The right lead will gain you 11 IMPs, the wrong lead will cost 11 IMPs.

[Winstonm]

The choice is either to go passive and hope or aggressive and attack. Against a small slam, I go aggressive and lead a low diamond.

[P_Marlowe]

I would go with a heart, the alternative is diamond.

[pescetom]

Winstonm, on 2018-October-26, 08:26, said:

Against a small slam, I go aggressive and lead a low diamond.

But you didn't vote it

I would probably lead a spade. Diamonds under the Q doesn't look good to me, declarer probably has 4-cards and responder looks balanced, so partner can't have much. He must have Hearts, but I can't help there. Declarer has at most HHx in spades and responder quite likely has 4-card hearts, so a spade looks reasonable.

[The_Badger]

I personally think it's a complete toss-up: heads you win, tails you lose. After looking at this for ten minutes plus, there isn't a lead I feel comfortable with. A part of me goes with Winstonm, lead aggressive and lead a small ♦ against a small slam, but we already know declarer is minor suit orientated, even possibly having a solid or semi-solid five or six card suit to boot to open 2NT - more likely to be ♣s given our holding. And South will (probably) be 4432 or 4441 shape, possibly but less likely 4333. With a five card major the bidding would have gone differently.

On reflection I'm probably leading a ♦ too, though there are some suit combinations where it will cost a trick, the most obvious is where dummy has Kx and declarer AJx. Though part of me says that a ♥ may be better as partner is likely to have length - at least 4 cards given the bidding, but that lead might help declarer too.

I haven't voted

[apollo1201]

On a given deal, anything could work. But statistically in the long run I think H will be safer. D are tempting but the spots are definitely too low and it could help declarer a lot. I obviously don’t know how to run a sim to back up what I say 🤣

[mikeh]

It's pretty clearly, to me at least, a red card. A spade is unthinkable. I read, many years ago, an analysis of opening leads against notrump contracts and Jxxx was said to be the single worst holding from which to lead on what is close to a blind auction.

J9xx was not nearly as bad, fwiw.

My subsequent non-scientific assessment (since I flash back to that analysis any time I am tempted by Jxxx) is that the analysis was sound:)

Here, as with others, I am waffling between the aggressive diamond and the passive heart. I think I opt for the heart.

[Winstonm]

I have found useful this advice from Benito Garozzo's Bols tip:

Quote

Games may be quietly defended but slams must be attacked.

[johnu]

I've been reading Bird and Anthias's Winning Notrump Leads. Surprisingly, or maybe not, the winning double dummy lead is frequently a passive lead through dummy's suit in the absence of a clear cut sequence lead, and one of the worst leads is frequently a broken suit lead into one of declarer's presumed long suits. Of course, double dummy assumes you will make the right switch and continuations after the opening lead.

I ran my own simulation and a spade, club and heart lead were all about the same, with a diamond lead was clearly worst. The results were a little insignificant because 6NT was such a heavy favorite to make (95+%) in my simulation (South having 12+ HCP and relatively balanced).

In any case, I would lead a heart through dummy's possible 4 card heart suit, and not a diamond or club when there is a good chance declarer has a 4 (or 5) card suit.

[mikeh]

johnu, on 2018-October-26, 14:36, said:

I've been reading Bird and Anthias's Winning Notrump Leads. Surprisingly, or maybe not, the winning double dummy lead is frequently a passive lead through dummy's suit in the absence of a clear cut sequence lead, and one of the worst leads is frequently a broken suit lead into one of declarer's presumed long suits. Of course, double dummy assumes you will make the right switch and continuations after the opening lead.

I ran my own simulation and a spade, club and heart lead were all about the same, with a diamond lead was clearly worst. The results were a little insignificant because 6NT was such a heavy favorite to make (95+%) in my simulation (South having 12+ HCP and relatively balanced).

In any case, I would lead a heart through dummy's possible 4 card heart suit, and not a diamond or club when there is a good chance declarer has a 4 (or 5) card suit.

Did your simulation score the leads only by trick expectancy?

While I chose a heart, my second choice would be a diamond. Whether your simulation would dissuade me depends on how it ranked the various possibilities.

My expectation, against reasonably good players and bearing in mind my hand, is that they will make 6N most of the time and that grand would be at best a borderline proposition....I'd not be surprised if it made, but it probably needs a little luck, such as a finesse or two.

If they have 12 winners on any lead, the diamond is the one lead that is the most likely to give them 13.

So the question is: does the simulation rank the diamond as the worst because it gives rise to the highest trick expectancy for declarer or because is gives rise to the highest likelihood that 6N makes?

Unless playing BAM or mps, I'd cheerfully give them 13 tricks 9 times out of 10, if I hold them to 11 tricks that other time.

That would mean the diamond lead generated a trick expectancy of 12.8, yet at imps or rubber, that one 'beat' outweighs all those overtricks.

I know it is more complicated than that, but I think you'll get the point.

[smerriman]

I did a quick sim myself, and got similar results to johnu (diamonds being the worst at both MPs and IMPs). Hearts came out slightly ahead of the other two choices for both scoring formats.

Though again, that's double dummy, so doesn't necessarily prove anything.

[dsLawsd]

Many years ago one of the best players in Florida told me to lead the nearest thing to a trick IF you have some hope of an entry.
Here, the heart lead through dummy seems likely not to blow a trick and to perhaps set up a trick for partner. Now if pard turns out to hold an
Ace plus the King of Diamonds or the diamond Ace and a stopper in a major then I will be sorry I did not do that. That advice has proved correct about 60 % of the time- in each case winning the match.

[GrahamJson]

dsLawsd, on 2018-October-26, 23:51, said:

Many years ago one of the best players in Florida told me to lead the nearest thing to a trick IF you have some hope of an entry.
Here, the heart lead through dummy seems likely not to blow a trick and to perhaps set up a trick for partner. Now if pard turns out to hold an
Ace plus the King of Diamonds or the diamond Ace and a stopper in a major then I will be sorry I did not do that. That advice has proved correct about 60 % of the time- in each case winning the match.

But if partner has the king of diamonds and an ace it means that oppo have bid 6NT on a combined 30 count, which doesn’t seem at all likely. It sounds like dummy has enough to make a combined 33 count; there is nothing to suggest he has a long suit so he must be bidding on power alone. If so, partner can have four points at most. The best hope seems to be that your queen of diamonds makes a trick and partner has an ace or a well placed king. So the last thing you want to do is lead a diamond and give away your one potential trick.

[PhilG007]

Tramticket, on 2018-October-26, 07:32, said:

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You are playing in a club event, scored as cross-IMPs, against a pair of inventive players who tend to score fairly well.

The right lead will gain you 11 IMPs, the wrong lead will cost 11 IMPs.

Why was North being deliberately vague in not replying to his partners Stayman inqury? All he had to do was bid a major
if he held one or bid 3!D in denial.. Anyway in answer to the question posed I would lead a diamond a deceptive 5th best from the longest suit

[maartenxq]

All leads can be wrong. I lead ♥ because partner has some length there and I want to protect my ♠and ♦.

If this costs 11 imps, too bad.

Maarten Baltussen

[gordontd]

PhilG007, on 2018-October-27, 04:10, said:

Why was North being deliberately vague in not replying to his partners Stayman inqury? All he had to do was bid a major
if he held one or bid 3!D in denial.

Did you not read the system explanation? 3C 5-card puppet, 3NT denies a four or five-card major. I imagine 3D would have shown a four-card major.

[kmtnyc]

So where do we find the answer?

[msjennifer]

Sir,from the explanation given since opener did not bid 3D but bid 3NT ,I draw the the conclusion that opener has a 5+ minor suit. and it is likely to be clubs and so a club lead is out.A spade lead is a dangerous lead and ,in my personal opinion so is a heart lead.Since this is the case I shall lead the fourth best diamond.My hand is such that one draws a card from another pack and leads that suit, it is a stab in the dark and any lead might be a loser as it would turn out to be.

[phntmshark]

I lead a spade. Heart lead looks bad as it may locate partners strength for declarer. And a diamond lead looks horrible as declarers strength is presumably in the minors, and my Q might be worth something if I don't give it away.

[johnu]

msjennifer, on 2018-October-27, 20:08, said:

Sir,from the explanation given since opener did not bid 3D but bid 3NT ,I draw the the conclusion that opener has a 5+ minor suit. ...

Puppet Stayman over 2NT as played by OP

3♦ = 1 (or 2) unspecified 4 card major
3♥ = 5 hearts
3♠ = 5 spades
3NT = no 4 card major

Opener may have a 5 card minor, but could be also be 4-4 or 4-3 in the minors.