Posted 2018-July-23, 04:06
You say it's MPs.
If they've stolen your cold 4 Spades for minus 100 or 200, then you're getting average minus at best.
I think that West has bid his eight-loser hand with his 3♠ bid, and he doesn't have another bid over 5♣.
I think he has to double to protect the 4♠ missed. Even two off might not be enough at this vulnerability.
But, the matchpoints difference between 5♣ doubled and making (highly unlikely, thought the correct lead may be hard to find.) and simply 5♣ making is tiny. If it's making, you're getting a terrible score, doubled or not.
So, double and hope you find the right lead for at least minus two. Not easy, I'd say. (Given the Club control, I'm leading a Diamond or a Heart and not a Spade, which may be ruffed. It's almost certain that, if there are Spade winners, they can wait to be cashed.)
D.