[bridgepali]

I find the most accurate point count method for trump play to be when I value voids at 5 pts. singletons at 3 pts. and doubletons at 1 pt. These values have shown that when added to hcpts. adjusted for point altering card formations, the point count reflects the optimum bid level for combined hands no matter what stage the bidding process is at.

Example:

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Bidquest:
Abiding by the 5cardMABBS, South opens declaring five hearts and having at least 13 pts. North responds at the three level (pt. range 23-25) declaring having 11-12 pts. and enough hearts to fill out the 5/3 requisite trump footprint. South perceiving from North's bid that the 5/3 requisite trump footprint is satisfied and that the combined hand's have at least 23 pts. (Three level bid range.), with the 3 pts. not declared in the opening bid, bids hearts at the four level (pt. range 26-28).

The difference between overbidding and underbidding is one point; also the difference between making a contract and not making a contract. The closer the match-up between point count and bid level ranges the more precise a partnership's bidding can be. Point count methods have never met this requirement thusly creating out of necessity the out of kilter bidding practices in use.

Watch for Talking Pts.??

[1eyedjack]

So, just to be clear, which are you suggesting re. the example? You may choose one (and only one) from:

1) The auction was bad, and got what it deserved

2) The auction was good, but just got unlucky

[Vampyr]

South's adding on 3(!) points for a singleton is pretty excessive, considering that any ruffs of that suit will be in the long hand.

[mikestar13]

1-3-5 is a reasonable short suit evaluation in the short trump hand if it holds 4+ trumps; in the long trump hand, no so much.

[johnu]

Is this just a made up example? Who bids 2♠ with the West hand? If your point is that KQJ opposite a singleton is a duplication of values, I agree 100%. I'm not good enough to discover this on this auction.

[rmnka447]

2 ♠ is absurd with the West hand. If West would bid anything, it might be a very aggressive T/O double.

The revaluation of opener's hand should take into account any information that is available from the auction. Here with the West hand bidding 2 ♠, the ♠ Q76 has to be devalued considerably because they sit under the honors West is sure to have.

[nige1]

bridgepali, on 2016-June-10, 13:52, said:

I find the most accurate point count method for trump play to be when I value voids at 5 pts. singletons at 3 pts. and doubletons at 1 pt. These values have shown that when added to hcpts. adjusted for point altering card formations, the point count reflects the optimum bid level for combined hands no matter what stage the bidding process is at.

Bridgepali's evaluation scheme seems reasonable.

Incidentallly, the losing trick count (LTC) is roughly equivalent to counting Winners using the formula:

• Discount honours in short suits,
• Divide HCP by 3 to estimate the number of winners,
• Count void = 3 winners, singleton = 2 winners, doubleton = 1 winner,
• Subtract winners for duplication that becomes apparent during the auction.
• Estimate trick expectation by adding your winners to partner's advertised winners .
• Add a further winner for trump-control (count only once)

Vampyr, on 2016-June-10, 14:25, said:

South's adding on 3(!) points for a singleton is pretty excessive, considering that any ruffs of that suit will be in the long hand.

Effectively, the LTC adds 6 points for a singleton!

[GrahamJson]

If I recall correctly, Goren recommended the 5-3-1 evaluation many years ago, but only for the supporting hand. In the long trump hand it was 3-2-1.

The actual example shows that there is more to bidding than just adding up points. Swap South's black suits around and 4H is a much better contract, yet the point count remains the same.

I doubt if any experienced players use anything but the simple 4321 point count system. They then use their judgement to re-evaluate their holding as the bidding goes on. For example a side suit of Qxx would gain in value if partner bids the suit but would be worthless if it becomes clear that partner is short.

Personally I like to use the most basic loosing trick count as a back up. This involves having a maximum of three losers in each suit, with one loser subtracted for each high honour card (A, K or Q). A typical minimum opening suit bid will have 7 losers. A single raise 9 losers, double raise 8, etc. Using the example given, S has 6 losers and N has 9, not quite enough to justify a four level contract, which needs a total of 14 losers or less.

In general I would say that the simple point count works best for balanced hands and the LTC is better for distributional hands. However, they all need to be combined with large amounts of judgement. I'm afraid that no point count system will substitute for experience.

[661_Pete]

Let me just understand one thing. Is this implying that a partner holding 6-7 HCPs and a 5-4-4-0 distribution, could open at the one level?

I'm sorry, but to me that's a psyche....

[GrahamJson]

According to the Goren method this hand would be worth 7 pts (or 6) plus 3 for the void, giving a total of 9 or 10; not enough to open. However opposite an opening of 1H or 1S you would add 5 pts for the void, giving a total of 11 or 12; sufficient for a raise to 3.

[msjennifer]

I know many or practically all will disagree with me.The responders hand as per LTC has 9 losers .3 in spades 3 in hearts 2in diamonds and one in clubs.As one assumes that opener can have a 7 loser hand the responders hand which has zero ruffing values is worth a single raise only 18 -(7+9)=2.I know all will pooh pooh this arithmetic .There are 11 HCP with responder they will point out..TO Illustrate my point further I give a real life hand which helped me win a major tournament on basis of LTC.LHO opened 1 NT (13/15) and my partner bid 2C(Landy), and I passed holding x,xx,xxxx,AKQxxx.LHO bid 2D and my P bid 3 C((void diamonds with xxxx in Club).Now,RHO silent so far bid 4S.With full confidence I bid 5 C which RHO doubled and we made an overtrick.Partners hand was Qxxx,AQxxx,--,xxxx.With 8 opposite 9 HCP, 12 tricks colt.Partners hand has 3 club,1 heart and 2 spade losers 6 total losers and my hand had 1 Spade 2 heart,3 Diamond losers,I.e.total 6 losers .Now,18-(6+6)=6 ,so a contract of six clubs was suggested by the LTC and was made on the table.I know that I am stretching things a bit too much but I keep using the theory when 8+ suit fit is found. HCP and suit length come into play more in NT contracts and additional points for x,xx or void is a very crude theory as one does not know partners hand and so whether the void is opposite KJX or xxx in partners hand.And of course we all know that hand wherein a grand slam is cold in any suit with only 5 HCP and the opponents holding 35 HCP can not score even a single trick.! By the by,this is my NELSON (111) contribution.