[luckyloser]

♠AQ65
♥J4
♦98753
♣94

Matchpoints, both vulnerable

RHO opens 1NT (15-17), LHO passes and P balances with 2♣(majors, at least 5-4, HCP more or less unknown).
RHO now bids 3♣.

Is your hand worth 3♠ or not?

[Zelandakh]

Game All is the worst time to stretch to compete. If the opps are any good they will MP-double freely so the KoD is very much on the cards.

[rhm]

I tried to simulate this and made the following assumptions:

RHO 6♣322 with 14-16 HCP
LHO no 5 card major, 0-8 HCP
Partner 5-4 or better in the majors.

1000 random deals.
3♣ and 3♠ made on exactly 671 deals each.

Average number of tricks in spades was 9.05 and in clubs 8.92

It looks like you should bid 3♠. If you are unlucky it will drive them into a making 3NT.
I know those who vote for pass will question my assumptions.

Rainer Herrmann

[ahydra]

Depends on style I guess. I mean, ♠KJxx ♥AKxxx ♦xx ♣xx is pretty odds-on for 3S and about what I'd expect for a vulnerable 2C under the strong NT. Plus, partner could be 5-4 rather than 4-5, or have 3 clubs, etc. Trumps rate to break 3-2 - the 1NT opener can't have a singleton and is very unlikely to be 4♠5♣.

But if partner has a tendency to balance quite weak with both majors, even vul, then it would be wiser to pass.

I can believe Rainer's stats (though why simulate with 14-16 rather than 15-17 or indeed 16-17 given opener is bidding by himself?) and if partner has his bid I think it'll be hard for opps to come up with a penalty X here. So I'd bid 3S.

ahydra

[rhm]

ahydra, on 2016-May-11, 06:06, said:

I can believe Rainer's stats (though why simulate with 14-16 rather than 15-17 or indeed 16-17 given opener is bidding by himself?) and if partner has his bid I think it'll be hard for opps to come up with a penalty X here. So I'd bid 3S.

ahydra

A matter of hand evaluation.
Playing 15-17 NT would you open 1NT with 17 HCP holding a reasonable 6 card minor?
I would likely upgrade.
And holding 14 HCP and a 6 card minor I htink I am good enough for 15-17 notrumps.
I certainly prefer that to 15 HCP holding 4333 or 4432 unless I have a fit in major.

Rainer Herrmann

[Winstonm]

I really don't think it matters if the hand is worth it or not - I am pretty sure they can make 3 clubs and I am just as sure they will take a push to 4C so I bid 3S.

[mcphee]

You bet it's worth bidding. Would you not raise. Partner if they had bid S?

[helene_t]

All hour points are in the majors. A raise is obvious.

[miamijd]

It looks like the high-card strength is roughly equal (you have 7; partner likely has at least 10 for his balance -- any less and LHO might have bid originally).

Given that, you should bid 3 over 3 in MPs if the trump count is 17 or more, since with 17 total trump, one contract is likely to make, while the other is likely off one. -100 beats -110, and +140 beats +100.

Here, it's likely the trump count is at least 17, if not 18. You have 4 spades; partner has at least 4 and quite possibly 5. You have 2 clubs; partner has a maximum of 4 minor suit cards, so there's a good chance he has 2 or fewer clubs.

So you may well have a 9-fit, and the opponents likely do have a 9-fit. Sure, it's possible that the trump count is 16, but the odds favor 17+.

So bid 3S.

[apollo1201]

Given our relatively modest power, and also because we are red, we can rely on partner to have some values. So balance of strength is close to 20-20 (with opps likely to be a bit ahead of us).
For all the reasons stated above, total tricks are unlikely to be 16.
I have S honors so the chances of an X by opponents who aim for the magic 200 are reduced. Responder might even be tempted to venture to the 4 level if he has a fit with some C honors as well that could be worthless on defence.
And I love my J💜.
So count me in for the bidders.

[maartenxq]

luckyloser, on 2016-May-11, 03:22, said:

♠AQ65
♥J4
♦98753
♣94

Matchpoints, both vulnerable

RHO opens 1NT (15-17), LHO passes and P balances with 2♣(majors, at least 5-4, HCP more or less unknown).
RHO now bids 3♣.

Is your hand worth 3♠ or not?

3 S it is. Partner must have seen vulnerability too and if not this is a good way to teach him to do so in future. tx for simulation btw.