[Lorne50]

OK - lets get to real question. East tanked for some time before passing and west bid 6S which was the winning action (1 off doubled, 6C cold and bid at every table but 1 other bid 6S and 1 pair doubled). I have been asked to chair an appeal after the director ruled it back to 6C making so the real question is whether the UI makes 6S more likely to be right than pass.

[blackshoe]

Lorne50, on 2014-December-21, 10:39, said:

OK - lets get to real question. East tanked for some time before passing and west bid 6S which was the winning action (1 off doubled, 6C cold and bid at every table but 1 other bid 6S and 1 pair doubled). I have been asked to chair an appeal after the director ruled it back to 6C making so the real question is whether the UI makes 6S more likely to be right than pass.

Or whether there's no LA to 6♠, given the hand and the auction (without the BIT). Not saying that's the case here, but it's something the committee must consider.

[AyunuS]

I'd say double. If they make, you're going to have a near lowest score anyways. But consider this. What if it's just a huge preempt with KQJxxxxxxx of clubs and some other junk, trying to deny you a game that your team has? Then if almost everyone bids a game but your table, and you didn't double, you get a really bad score. And if he really has 11 clubs and can make the bid then your partner probably has some really lopsided hand that can run from the double and thus still let the other team get fewer points than letting them make the slam.

[mikeh]

AyunuS, on 2014-December-21, 17:48, said:

I'd say double. If they make, you're going to have a near lowest score anyways.

Why can't anyone understand that when LHO holds 12 winners in his own hand, everyone in the field will bid slam?

Since it is probable that he bid to make, and certain that he knows his hand better than you do, wtf do you think you are doing with your double? When par is -1370, doubling turns an average into a bottom. Of course, there is the possibility that had you opened 1S, partner might have saved. That could justify a huge gamble via 6S, but I roll it back after the b.i.t. Nothing justifies double other than not understanding the game. In real life, nobody jumps red to 6C over a 3rd seat strong NT as a save.

[Wackojack]

Winstonm, on 2014-December-20, 17:09, said:

He sounds 0148 or 0139, and I have no reason to think he cannot make his contract. I pass.

Yes indeed! But consider the implications of LHO having this shape. You have 5 spades and LHO has none. How many spades might partner have and so how many tricks might you make in spades?

[AyunuS]

Opponent's hand if he has 12 winners is likely something like this: (maybe a little weaker than this)
-
-
AKQx
AQKJxxxxx

Then partner probably has something like (maybe a little stronger than this)
xxxx
xxxxx
Jxxx
-

So then you lose 1 in spades and 3 in diamonds. You're only down 3, so if you double and partner runs to 6 spades, you're likely only going to give up 800 points, which is better than 1370. So if you double and the other team can make it, your team can still run away so as to give them fewer points than letting them make it. So yes, 1370 is probably already bottom score since everyone else sacrificed.

[PhantomSac]

If the jlol account still posted he would probably give
Multiple Lols to doubling

[Jinksy]

mikeh, on 2014-December-21, 17:59, said:

Why can't anyone understand that when LHO holds 12 winners in his own hand, everyone in the field will bid slam?

I'm still waiting for a response to my point - at some point, if the hand the opp is representing is unlikely enough, the odds are better that your opp glitched than that he actually has it. I don't know where the cutoff is, but I'm betting a hand like this is pretty close.

Would you still be passing if he'd bid 7? What if you had the QJ of ♦s instead of the J♠?

[whereagles]

mikeh, on 2014-December-21, 17:59, said:

Why can't anyone understand that when LHO holds 12 winners in his own hand, everyone in the field will bid slam?

well doh! everybody knows that when you hold 12 winners you bid 13 tricks

[Cthulhu D]

mikeh, on 2014-December-21, 17:59, said:

Why can't anyone understand that when LHO holds 12 winners in his own hand, everyone in the field will bid slam?

Right, I agree. Therefore double shouldn't be penalty. Shouldn't dbl therefore suggest you made a perverted 1NT opening and now want to suggest a save? I'm not sure if this is the hand to do it with (I suspect the right hand is 6 diamonds or something), but isn't that a logical meaning of double?

I mean I have no idea obviously, but if we're assigning a meaning to X other than DNE and it's not penalty, it has to be takeout?

[the hog]

I would certainly roll 6S back and I would issue a warning.

[mikeh]

AyunuS, on 2014-December-21, 18:58, said:

Opponent's hand if he has 12 winners is likely something like this: (maybe a little weaker than this)
-
-
AKQx
AQKJxxxxx

Then partner probably has something like (maybe a little stronger than this)
xxxx
xxxxx
Jxxx
-

So then you lose 1 in spades and 3 in diamonds. You're only down 3, so if you double and partner runs to 6 spades, you're likely only going to give up 800 points, which is better than 1370. So if you double and the other team can make it, your team can still run away so as to give them fewer points than letting them make it. So yes, 1370 is probably already bottom score since everyone else sacrificed.

Really? LHO has what almost every player in the world would consider a 7C call and partner that hand and you expect, firstly, a bid of 6C and secondly partner will take a double by the strong 1NT opener as takeout. You need to start thinking about how the game is really played.

I doubt that any poster here has EVER had a vul LHO over all his or her strong 1NT opener at the 6 level. No matter how you try to justify a double, there is nobody playing here whose regular partner would take it out to 6 spades. I bet 6D won't be a success and why should west pull with 4 card support?

It isn't even clear to pull 6H!

[whereagles]

Lorne50, on 2014-December-21, 10:39, said:

the real question is whether the UI makes 6S more likely to be right than pass.

The UI says West has something, so it suggests action rather than pass.

And what sort of action does the UI suggest? If the thinking was based on high cards, West would certainly have doubled anyway. Hence the thinking suggests a strange distributional hand.

As a rule I try to keep rollbacks to as few as possible, but I think this case it probably is correct.

[Wackojack]

These were the actual hands.

---

At the end of the session, I alongside 2 other club directors were called on by the acting director of the evening to make a ruling on what happened at his table. On the basis of a significant hesitation by East we agreed that the score should revert back to 6♣= and this was the insrtuction given to the scorer. The EW pair were not present at that time and it transpired that they wished to appeal against the decision.

First of all I wish to apologise to Lorne for starting this thread. It was done before I knew there was going to be an appeal and my interest was the bidding when there was no hesitation. Too late now. Here are a few more facts and my opinions assuming (hypothetically or not as the case may be) no hesitations.

At my table I opened 1♠ (5M 15-17NT) and partner bid 6♠ over 6♣. It wasn't too difficult for me to play North for a spade void and use hearts for a trump coup for -200. My partner's explanation for her bid of 6♠ was that West was normally frightened of her own shadow and therefore had to have 12 tricks in her own hand. This was a complete top and 6♣= was the result at all tables except one where the contract was 6♣ doubled =. I think that all other West's were weak no trumpers so would have opened 1♠.

I support the opinion given by a surprising minority of posters in this thread, that most Norths would only bid 6♣ when they had just about 12 tricks in their hand. Thus if after partner opens 1NT it is reasonable to think that East might consider a sacrifice of 6♥. It is also not unreasonable to think that if East passes without any hesitation (after the stop card is removed) then there is a good chance that 6♠ doubled will be cheaper than -1370. So the question here is do you consider that the Chance of 6♣ making x the chance of 6♠ going off no more than 4 is greater or less than 50%?

[PhilKing]

Wackojack, on 2014-December-22, 06:44, said:

I support the opinion given by a surprising minority of posters in this thread, that most Norths would only bid 6♣ when they had just about 12 tricks in their hand. Thus if after partner opens 1NT it is reasonable to think that East might consider a sacrifice of 6♥. It is also not unreasonable to think that if East passes without any hesitation (after the stop card is removed) then there is a good chance that 6♠ doubled will be cheaper than -1370. So the question here is do you consider that the Chance of 6♣ making x the chance of 6♠ going off no more than 4 is greater or less than 50%?

Well I was the only person to suggest that the choice was between pass and 6♠. Why did I reject it? On the grounds that there would be sufficient numbers of people doubling 6♣ to make it unnecessary. I would judge that a sacrifice is likely to go for less than slam more than half the time, but that is not the only problem - I would not be happy to push them into Seven whan lefty is 0058 or 0049 missing one diamond honour, which may be in his partner's hand.

Anyway, the real point is whether partner's hesitation indicated bidding on as compared to a smooth pass. This is a situation where it it is likely partner is rarely passing smoothly, so I think it is pretty close, but I would reluctantly disallow the 6♠ bid.

[the hog]

The chance of 6C not making is remote, though I do see that one poster thinks the opposite. Well, there is always one.

[billw55]

Perhaps the moral of the story is to open 1♠?

At any rate, ruling of 6♣= is totally clear IMO.

[whereagles]

West was normally frightened of her own shadow and therefore had to have 12 tricks in her own hand.

This is very relevant information. Opposite me, you could count on perhaps 10 top tricks lol. As it is, it makes pulling to 6♠ much more attractive.

I might very well let the table result stand on grounds of the following: pulling to 6♠ is extremely risky because chances are the hesitation was based on a different suit (probably hearts, given our doubleton). Pard might very well have a singleton spade instead of his xxxx, making 6♠X quite the bloodbath. 6♠ was just pure luck, as the hesitation could not have conveyed a spade suit. As such, it should be allowed to stand.

I can understand this is a minority view, ofc.

[mikeh]

Wackojack, on 2014-December-22, 06:44, said:

These were the actual hands.

---

I support the opinion given by a surprising minority of posters in this thread, that most Norths would only bid 6♣ when they had just about 12 tricks in their hand. Thus if after partner opens 1NT it is reasonable to think that East might consider a sacrifice of 6♥. It is also not unreasonable to think that if East passes without any hesitation (after the stop card is removed) then there is a good chance that 6♠ doubled will be cheaper than -1370. So the question here is do you consider that the Chance of 6♣ making x the chance of 6♠ going off no more than 4 is greater or less than 50%?

I think that you are correct in suggesting, as I read your post, that the real issue is pass or 6♠. Double is silly even if both intended and taken as takeout, since although on the actual hand 6♥ is ok, it is hardly odds-on that partner will be able to get us to a playable spot. Indeed, aren't we always having to bid 6♠ if he takes out the double?

The one thing we can infer is that N has very good diamonds. Her actual holding isn't unexpected. So we can't leave 6♦ in, and it must be against the odds to play in hearts.

So the issue is whether we need to find 6♠. I am with Phil on this one (that's twice in the same thread!). I learned a long time ago that in a typical mp field one should avoid questionable sacrifices. Even when the save is 'good', we're likely to be doing no worse than average minus for not taking it, and of course when it is a phantom, we are getting close to a zero.

That doesn't mean never saving. It means only that in most mp fields, the save should appear to be a high percentage call. I don't see is as such here. I mean, look at the number of people doubling here. Now many of them claim it is clearly takeout, but I would be very surprised if, in the real world at the table, many of their partners pulled, even those who worked out that it 'should' be takeout.

[nige1]

I would have considered double but I'm now persuaded it's wrong. I wouldn't have considered 6♠ although PhilKing has convinced us that it's a strong alternative to Pass. I also agree that partner's hesitation suggest 6♠ over Pass or Double, so the director should rule 6♣=. Instructive stuff.