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Pard's 3rd seat opening standards are slightly conservative. May open an 11-count, but will pass most tenners.
Aggressive minor suit lead, or a more passive heart?
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passive or aggressive opening lead here?
#1
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Posted 2014-December-01, 02:52
Matchpoints
Pard's 3rd seat opening standards are slightly conservative. May open an 11-count, but will pass most tenners.
Aggressive minor suit lead, or a more passive heart?
Pard's 3rd seat opening standards are slightly conservative. May open an 11-count, but will pass most tenners.
Aggressive minor suit lead, or a more passive heart?
#2
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Posted 2014-December-01, 03:04
A spade would be foolish and a heart helps declarer to develop his side suit for discards of clubs and diamonds.
I lead diamonds and hope my king becomes a trick, the second round of clubs could very well be ruffed.
I lead diamonds and hope my king becomes a trick, the second round of clubs could very well be ruffed.
--
Finding your own mistakes is more productive than looking for partner's. It improves your game and is good for your soul. (Nige1)
Finding your own mistakes is more productive than looking for partner's. It improves your game and is good for your soul. (Nige1)
#3
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Posted 2014-December-03, 05:42
Layout:
Short K underlead stops the 2nd overtrick here.
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
Short K underlead stops the 2nd overtrick here.
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
#4
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Posted 2014-December-03, 12:47
whereagles, on 2014-December-03, 05:42, said:
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
Is it? I've heard the opposite argument, that if declarer has length we might not lose a trick even if the lead turns out badly whereas the long suit lead might give a trick to Qx or something where it is unrecoverable. Is this something that Bird/Anthias cover? What's the argument for long-suit safety?
#5
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Posted 2014-December-03, 13:53
whereagles, on 2014-December-03, 05:42, said:
.
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
I dunno what Bird/Anthias prefer, but K 5th is a NO NO (in general) up to Tony Forrester, who is a great player imo.
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#6
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Posted 2014-December-03, 17:07
If I recall correctly, a long king is less likely to blow a trick because declarer is more favourite to have a singleton in the suit, meaning he wouldn't lose a trick there anyway.
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Posted 2014-December-04, 04:16
Bird/Anthias compared leads from kt fifth, kt fourth, and ktx against the auctions 1 major-simple raise-game in suit and 1 suit-limit raise-game in suit and their stats showed that on these auctions, the longer the suit the better. I am sure that they did not suggest that in non-similar auctions like this problem, the same results would apply.
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Posted 2014-December-04, 10:06
whereagles, on 2014-December-03, 05:42, said:
Layout:
Short K underlead stops the 2nd overtrick here.
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
Short K underlead stops the 2nd overtrick here.
I think Bird/Anthias would prefer the long king underlead, as its safer. Well, not today.
Another layout:
Now heart or club lead are best; diamond yields the second overtrick. Consensus: Don't lead spades.
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Posted 2014-December-04, 10:22
whereagles, on 2014-December-03, 17:07, said:
If I recall correctly, a long king is less likely to blow a trick because declarer is more favourite to have a singleton in the suit, meaning he wouldn't lose a trick there anyway.
It is presumably also more likely that a trick you blow in your long suit is a loser that declarer could in time have discarded on another suit anyway if you had avoided leading the suit at T1.
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Posted 2014-December-04, 21:24
I am convinced that Bird/Anthias would chose the low diamond here. While a lead from KT with length is normally worse than a lead from K with spot length, they are roughly comparable in aggressive danger. Therefore, we consider the next tiebreaker, leading the shorter of comparable side suits. From the chapter on leading against small slams where a potentially useful side suit has been shown in dummy, and it is assumed the opponents bid well enough to avoid a cashing AK.
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Posted 2014-December-05, 10:37
BillPatch, on 2014-December-04, 21:24, said:
I am convinced that Bird/Anthias would chose the low diamond here. While a lead from KT with length is normally worse than a lead from K with spot length, they are roughly comparable in aggressive danger. Therefore, we consider the next tiebreaker, leading the shorter of comparable side suits. From the chapter on leading against small slams where a potentially useful side suit has been shown in dummy, and it is assumed the opponents bid well enough to avoid a cashing AK.
That's my problem with Bird/Anthias - the assumption that opponents will not tailor their bidding to account for my pessimistic leads (whether it's assuming there's no AK cashable against a slam or that a slam is ice cold and I should cash my Ace or lose it or that declarer has my 6 card suit stopped in 3NT)
I'd rsther opponents lived in fear of my aggressive leads, and avoided close games and slams; I'll give up the occasional overtrick.
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