[wank]

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lead is the 4 of heart's to easts king. east returns a small club.

EW play non-polish style 2nd and 4th leads, i.e. if west has 4 or more to an honour he'd lead 4th, with 3 or more and no honour he'd lead 2nd, with 3 to an honour he'd lead lowest and with any doubleton he'd lead top.

knowing EW you assess the chances of LHO making a non-systemic lead as being very low. east similarly is a pretty upstanding honest carder, but anyone could manage to win the king from kq here.

your go?

if you cash 1 top spade, which is i think all you can do without committing yourself in some way, RHO follows with the 8 and lho with the 2.

[Aardv]

if LHO has made a true lead his possible heart holdings are Q74, Q54, Q754, Q7543, Q75432, 43, 42, or 4 (this last only if RHO gone wrong). On this auction you might lead from any of those holdings. Restricted choice makes it relatively less likely that RHO has ♥Q.

Suppose we are going to play LHO for HQ, and we're going to be right. If spades are 3-2 we can make by ruffing a club in dummy - don't unblock HJ at trick one, win the club switch, take two rounds of spades ending in hand, lead HJ which LHO can't afford to cover, ruff a club, ruff a heart back to hand, draw the last trump and claim.

If RHO shows out on the second spade we can change tack - draw four rounds of trumps and take the heart finesse, hoping LHO was dealt Qxx. (You can cash the long spade and ♣A before crossing to dummy, in case you can read it when LHO is squeezed in the reds However, when this hand came up RHO was first in at green and hadn't pre-empted in clubs.)

I'm told by a reliable witness that David Gold, who is a better declarer than I am, selected a different and unsuccessful line.

[MrAce]

Well,,,it does not make sense to me to lead from Qxx(x) ♥ however if we are going to play other ♥ honor also with East, we then need W to hold either only 2 trumps or 3+ hearts...I don't know how one can spot the position with confidence.

Lead can be from (the way you explained their leads) Q74 Q84 Q54 7432 742 743 842 843 42 43. I will just go head and take out the Qxx combinations, this is either a stupid or a brilliant lead and he deserves to win the board if he found that lead on this hand.

In remaining combos, the critical ones are 43 and 42. Once we decide to play other ♥ honor, Q, to be with E, we can no longer play for 4-1 spade breaks, we are going down unless miraculously QJ ♦ is onside or drops.

I would just take the ♣ in dummy, cash spade K and play another spade to my A. Ruff a club, and play A of hearts and ♥ for finesse. this way I can also make when W started with 2-2 in the major suits, regardless of how diamonds split.

[Aardv]

I forgot about leads from 3 or 4 low. But I'm sceptical that anyone would lead a MUD 4 here, I think the only trebleton is 432.

[MrAce]

Aardv, on 2014-September-30, 02:36, said:

I forgot about leads from 3 or 4 low. But I'm sceptical that anyone would lead a MUD 4 here, I think the only trebleton is 432.

Meckwell loves it, particularly to be able to false card later if they need to.

And yes, you are correct that if spades turn out to be 4-1, we have to play for the split ♥ honors.
I admit I maybe under estimating the likelihood of under Q lead.

[wanoff]

I can see 2 lines starting with ♠KQ;
1. if the ♥Q is on the left, either Qxx or if Qxxx, a ♥/♦ squeeze.
or 2. if the ♥Q is wrong, hearts 4-3 and trumps 3-2, by overtaking ♠Q, taking a club ruff followed by a ruffing finesse in hearts. If ♠10 has not already appeared, the way back to hand to draw the last trump may involve ruffing a diamond.

I prefer the second as there are only 3 ways for the ♥Q to be with LHO but loads if the lead was 2nd highest.
But since you need trumps 3-2 for line 2. you need to cash ♠KQ first. If RHO shows out, then follow line 1. by cashing AK diamonds before drawing trumps.

[MrAce]

wanoff, on 2014-September-30, 02:57, said:

I can see 2 lines;
1. if the ♥Q is on the left, either Qxx or if Qxxx, a ♥/♦ squeeze.
or 2. if the ♥Q is wrong, hearts 4-3 and trumps 3-2, by overtaking ♠Q, taking a club ruff followed by a ruffing finesse in hearts. If ♠10 has not already appeared, the way back to hand to draw the last trump may involve ruffing a diamond.

I prefer the second as there are only 3 ways for the ♥Q to be with LHO but loads if the lead was 2nd highest.
But since you need trumps 3-2 for line 2. you need to cash ♠KQ first. If RHO shows out, then follow line 1. by cashing AK diamonds before drawing trumps.

Yes, but...if E follows 2nd spade, we have to over take the Q with A in hand. Or we are going down when LHO has xxx ♠ and xxx(x) ♥