[mikeh]

I like to think I upgrade into and out of 1N as much as most experts, possibly even more than the average, altho I am otherwise quite conservative in my bidding style) but I wouldn't upgrade here.

We don't have anything special. The diamond 10 would get me bidding 1N, but without that card, we are looking only at a decent 14 rather than a very good 14.

I suspect that at least some of the would-be 1N openers are being influenced, unconsciously, by the realization that this hand would be a far better declarer hand in notrump than it is a dummy hand...imagine partner with a nice 10 count such as Qxx Kxx J10x Axxx

We have all kinds of play for game from my side, although it is far from cold on a heart lead, say. However, with the lead coming through my Kx in spades, we are very unlikely to make, since the overcaller rates to hold the diamond Ace.

[whereagles]

hmm... not sure about overcaller a favorite to hold the diamond ace, mike. It's more like "if ♦A is with opponents, then it's overcaller who is likely to have it". I estimate pard to have the diamond ace about 35-40% of the time. I can run a sim on it if you want.

[Mbodell]

whereagles, on 2014-July-09, 00:57, said:

hmm... not sure about overcaller a favorite to hold the diamond ace, mike. It's more like "if ♦A is with opponents, then it's overcaller who is likely to have it". I estimate pard to have the diamond ace about 35-40% of the time. I can run a sim on it if you want.

I'd be interested in a sim. But for the sim we'd need some agreement on what is the strength of the 1nt response in this sequence. Some people were saying that for them partner could have 6-7 some of the time. Some folks think the 1nt here is more of 8/9-11, but others think 10 or more would bid 2nt not 1nt. So I think before you can sim you need agreement for what sort of hands bid 1nt instead of pass or 2nt or something else in this situation (unpassed hand, unfavorable, imps).

[whereagles]

Just tell me the constraints you'd like and I'll plug it into the machine

Can also run it for several types of 1NT styles.

[billw55]

whereagles, on 2014-July-09, 07:14, said:

Just tell me the constraints you'd like and I'll plug it into the machine

Can also run it for several types of 1NT styles.

I think 8-10 is reasonable. Also there is some constraint on the spade holding - not sure if Qxx is good enough or not.

[mikeh]

whereagles, on 2014-July-09, 00:57, said:

hmm... not sure about overcaller a favorite to hold the diamond ace, mike. It's more like "if ♦A is with opponents, then it's overcaller who is likely to have it". I estimate pard to have the diamond ace about 35-40% of the time. I can run a sim on it if you want.

when I give the example of J10x opposite KQxxx, you can safely assume that the opps hold the A of that suit. I don't need a sim to work that out, but feel free to do one if you are still worried about it.

[whereagles]

- North has spade Q or better, no 4 hearts, balanced hand.
- West is 8-17 H, 5+ spades, not 55.
- East has at most 2 spades if he has 5+ H.

Sim results after 10 000 hands.

1NT is 8-10
Pard has DA = 30.96%
West has DA = 44.43%
East has DA = 24.61%
Pard has 8 HCP = 32.46%
Pard has 9 HCP = 34.14%
Pard has 10 HCP = 33.40%

1NT is 6-10
Pard has DA = 25.74%
West has DA = 44.22%
East has DA = 30.04%
Pard has 6 HCP = 16.47%
Pard has 7 HCP = 18.39%
Pard has 8 HCP = 20.94
Pard has 9 HCP = 22.69%
Pard has 10 HCP = 21.51%

I didn't do double dummy analysis (ask Rainer if he can be bothered ), but I did check a few of the 8-10 hands and 3NT ranged from "pretty hopeless" to (surprisingly) "almost cold", so the flyer isn't that far-fecthed.

[Mbodell]

whereagles, on 2014-July-09, 12:08, said:

I didn't do double dummy analysis (ask Rainer if he can be bothered ), but I did check a few of the 8-10 hands and 3NT ranged from "pretty hopeless" to (surprisingly) "almost cold", so the flyer isn't that far-fecthed.

I wonder, given what you say, which of pass, invite, or flyer 3nt would score best.

[whereagles]

I'm a bit short on time to plug-in a DD solver (would have to study how to do it), but my guess is the 3NT flyer would be a long-term loser, although by a considerably shorter margin than might be expected by passers. 2NT might very well be a long-term small winner.

By the way, for 8-10 the odds for partner having either the ace or jack of diamonds is ~63%.

[quiddity]

While a sim is interesting, IMO it tells us more about how the hand should have been opened and not what it should do on the second round. If you have a balanced hand and want to be in game opposite a 10-count, open 1nt. If you don't want to be in game opposite a 10-count, don't invite over a response which shows 8 to a bad 11. I think a 2nt raise here is never balanced; it shows an offshape strong notrump.

[the hog]

as I do not play a 14-17 NT, I open 1d. This is a clear pass now.

[whereagles]

quiddity, on 2014-July-10, 01:48, said:

I think a 2nt raise here is never balanced; it shows an offshape strong notrump.

That's the theory, yes. I would even say 15-16, as with 17 you just take a small chance and bid game directly.

[rmnka447]

Pass. I don't see any thing special in this hand to upgrade it to a 1 NT opening initially.

[Cascade]

gwnn, on 2014-July-07, 09:27, said:

sign me up for +150

While others are aiming at -100 or -200

[Cascade]

whereagles, on 2014-July-09, 12:08, said:

- North has spade Q or better, no 4 hearts, balanced hand.
- West is 8-17 H, 5+ spades, not 55.
- East has at most 2 spades if he has 5+ H.

Not sure how much difference it will make but I think you need to take out hands with a big diamond fit.

Also you may need to limit east's hand. With a lot of values east may have a double (or a bid), with a few values and a long suit (clubs or hearts) east may have a bid.

[mike777]

2nt assume 1nt is 8-11 and we are vul at imps.


Need to bid those 22-23 pt games

[PhantomSac]

mike777, on 2014-July-14, 16:02, said:

Need to bid those 22-23 pt games

Nope, you really don't!

[rhm]

whereagles, on 2014-July-09, 12:08, said:

I didn't do double dummy analysis (ask Rainer if he can be bothered ), but I did check a few of the 8-10 hands and 3NT ranged from "pretty hopeless" to (surprisingly) "almost cold", so the flyer isn't that far-fecthed.

Mbodell, on 2014-July-10, 00:17, said:

I wonder, given what you say, which of pass, invite, or flyer 3nt would score best.

I did some simulations, three in total, for all those, who appreciate them and to those who want to criticise my assumptions.

What is the South hand worth?
I gave North 9-10 balanced, no 5 card heart suit.
With that 3NT would be reached if you upgraded and likely not if you didn't.

Result 1000 deals.
3NT made on 319 deals, was one down on 409 and two or more down on 272 deals
Average number of tricks was 8.0.
Single dummy you make slightly more often.

I would claim it's a good 14 count, but not worth an upgrade, but admittedly it is close. I would want the ♦T, I am loss-averse.

When the bidding starts 1♦- (1♠) - 1NT agreements matter and mine are non standard, but I insist on them in my partnerships.
After LHO overcalls right siding gets important in my opinion and generally speaking opener should declare notrumps.
I have seen too many 3NT contracts, which were cold from opener's side and hopeless from responder's.

Accordingly if responder bids 1NT he should have a positional stopper. He should not bid 1NT just because he has Axx or Kxx or Qxx in overcaller's suit, just to show "I had values".
It is a concept I despise.
I also do not believe in the standard notion that 1♦-(1♠)-Pass-(Pass)-1NT should be 18-19.
The way my agreements are responder is almost never broke when both responder and RHO passes.
Accordingly if opener balances here with 1NT it shows a weak notrump and I have never come to cropper with this philosophy.

So I assumed for my simulation of this scenario

Responder to have at least 3 cards in spades (no spade raise by East), 2 honors in spades (one could be the spade ten) and at least 2 HCP in spades) ranging from something like ♠QTx to ♠AJ9x
However, if responder has a good positional spade stopper, I see no good reason why he should pass with 7 HCP.

Jumping to game with opener's hand seems to me off this planet and of course shows a different hand.
The choice is between pass and 2NT. (If available)

I simulated this and assumed responder would accept with 9-10 HCP now and pass with 7-8 with responder having the above spade holding and less than 4 cards in hearts.
(On my simulations responder was as likely to hva 7-8 HCP as 9-10 HCP)

Result:

1000 deals , responder has 9-10 HCP:

Game makes on 523 deals, is one down on 315 deals and two or more down on 162 deals.

Average number of tricks was 8.45

This sound as if inviting is clearly right, however

1000 deals, responder has 7-8 HCP:

Now 2NT makes on 342 deals (94 of these deals would make 3NT), on 374 deals you are down one and on 284 deals you are down two or more.
Average number of tricks was only 7.1.
So raising notrumps halfs your chances for a plus score, though you will do a bit better single dummy.

On my assumption that responder would be discriminative when to "wrongside" 1NT , an invite is okay, but no big deal if you pass.
The conservatives do not always lose out to the crazy ones.

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

deleted.

[Zelandakh]

trevahound, on 2014-July-08, 09:52, said:

Since I expect 8-10 ish,

Do you? I don't. Even though this is what I would consider standard expecting it under the circumstances of the OP (pickup partner of undisclosed ability) is foolhardy. The vast majority of players out there will bid 1NT on similar hands after the overcall as before. 6hcp? no problem! It is fine to restate the problem such as "With my regular CHO..." or "With an expert partner..." but there is also an art to playing with normal (intermediate) pickups. Part of that is not making pushy actions when partner might not have what you expect them to.

Of course, this being a forum hand it is odds on that game made. The passers know this too; it does not make it the percentage action.