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LHO thought before ducking the 2nd ♠. What now?
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#1
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Posted 2014-January-28, 02:19
You may not agree with the bidding as well as the ♠ play, but that's how it went at the table.
LHO thought before ducking the 2nd ♠. What now?
LHO thought before ducking the 2nd ♠. What now?
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Posted 2014-January-28, 03:53
LHO has 3343, he is strip squeezed on the heart.
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Posted 2014-January-28, 07:31
Fluffy, on 2014-January-28, 03:53, said:
LHO has 3343, he is strip squeezed on the heart.
How sure are you?
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Posted 2014-January-28, 09:27
How sure are you?
*** How interesting if so. A story to tell, not some drab hand.
*** How interesting if so. A story to tell, not some drab hand.
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Posted 2014-January-28, 09:48
If it was that simple I would've posted it in intermediate/advanced... I think Fluffy ignored one point of interest: RHO didn't return a ♦ immediately at trick 2. If he would've had ♦Ax wouldn't he return ♦ immediately in the hope to score 1 or 2 ruffs (knowing that his ♥K would probably be finessed)? Should you pay attention to this inference or not?
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Posted 2014-January-28, 12:59
Way too many post in the Expert forum so that they can get "experts" to comment, even though the problem is closer to the beginner/novice level. 
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Posted 2014-January-28, 14:42
he has ♣QJ10xx over dummy's ♣9xx...
LHO led a diamond, hoe many people do you know that underlead Jxx on an unbid suit?, sure other leads are not attractive either, but this one is worse.
LHO led a diamond, hoe many people do you know that underlead Jxx on an unbid suit?, sure other leads are not attractive either, but this one is worse.
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Posted 2014-January-28, 16:09
If LHO is 3=3=4=3, with Axx Axx J9xx Axx, then as fluffy says, the last trump squeezes him: he has to pitch his club exit and now we lead our last spade.
On the other hand, if he is 3=3=3=4, with Axx Axx J9x A8xx, we are screwed...he pitches a club, but retains one to lead to his partner. This requires RHO to keep his 'idle diamond' but he can pitch his spade instead, and throw the diamond on our spade 'exit'.
Which is which?
Fluffy's point about the lead is valid, in that J9x has to be about the worst lead possible, but take a look at his alternatives on the posited 3=3=3=4 hand. I would, personally, probably lead the club A...I wouldn't lead spades since partner didn't balance (not that that is a big inference with our hand) and because I tend to think the longer suit is the least likely to blow a lot of tricks, and I wouldn't lead trump since this is way too dangerous.
There is another clue. Look at the second round of clubs. RHO didn't play the 8. Now, it costs nothing for him to play the 10 from J108, but most players don't think that way at the table. So the odds are that RHO lacks the 8. Look at what LHO returned. Again, if he can figure out what is going on, it costs nothing for him to falsecard with the x from a current holding of 8x, but most players just return the 8 without thinking.
So since he returned the x, he likely has 8xx left.
What makes me decide this is what is going on is that for 3=3=3=4 to be wrong, both opps have to have falsecarded in clubs, which seems unlikely to me, assuming that they are semi-competent and thus would usually make the normal play. If they are so bad that they play randomly, then nothing really matters anyway.
Btw, I detest the opening bid.
edit: we cash the heart anyway, of course, since there is little cost to doing so and the opps might give the game away. LHO has to pitch a club and it will be interesting to see which one it is.
If it is lower than the one he returned at trick 3, then I will play rho to be devious with the QJ108, concealing the 8.
If it is higher, but not the 8, I will play LHO to have had A8xx, because that is the 'normal' way of playing and pitching clubs for a defender who hasn't looked deeply into the situation, and this also means that I don't have to assume rho falsecarded concurrently with lho.
But what if LHO pitches the 8, as he should (imo) pitch. That is a very interesting card, because it removes the inference about rho...rho is now being a solid citizen, but lho has either belatedly woken up to the fact that he should have falsecarded by returning the 8 from 8xx at trick 3, and is now falsecarding, or he DID falsecard at trick 3, only to be forced to come clean now. Hmmmmm.....few opps will falsecard at trick 3 simply because they won't have visualized the endgame, but falsecarding now isn't that tough.
So if LHO plays the lowest available club on my heart, I exit a spade, playing LHO to be honest and RHO to have falsecarded
If LHO plays a middle x, then I cash the diamond K
If LHO plays the 8, I also cash the diamond K, playing him for a late rather than an early falsecard.
On the other hand, if he is 3=3=3=4, with Axx Axx J9x A8xx, we are screwed...he pitches a club, but retains one to lead to his partner. This requires RHO to keep his 'idle diamond' but he can pitch his spade instead, and throw the diamond on our spade 'exit'.
Which is which?
Fluffy's point about the lead is valid, in that J9x has to be about the worst lead possible, but take a look at his alternatives on the posited 3=3=3=4 hand. I would, personally, probably lead the club A...I wouldn't lead spades since partner didn't balance (not that that is a big inference with our hand) and because I tend to think the longer suit is the least likely to blow a lot of tricks, and I wouldn't lead trump since this is way too dangerous.
There is another clue. Look at the second round of clubs. RHO didn't play the 8. Now, it costs nothing for him to play the 10 from J108, but most players don't think that way at the table. So the odds are that RHO lacks the 8. Look at what LHO returned. Again, if he can figure out what is going on, it costs nothing for him to falsecard with the x from a current holding of 8x, but most players just return the 8 without thinking.
So since he returned the x, he likely has 8xx left.
What makes me decide this is what is going on is that for 3=3=3=4 to be wrong, both opps have to have falsecarded in clubs, which seems unlikely to me, assuming that they are semi-competent and thus would usually make the normal play. If they are so bad that they play randomly, then nothing really matters anyway.
Btw, I detest the opening bid.
edit: we cash the heart anyway, of course, since there is little cost to doing so and the opps might give the game away. LHO has to pitch a club and it will be interesting to see which one it is.
If it is lower than the one he returned at trick 3, then I will play rho to be devious with the QJ108, concealing the 8.
If it is higher, but not the 8, I will play LHO to have had A8xx, because that is the 'normal' way of playing and pitching clubs for a defender who hasn't looked deeply into the situation, and this also means that I don't have to assume rho falsecarded concurrently with lho.
But what if LHO pitches the 8, as he should (imo) pitch. That is a very interesting card, because it removes the inference about rho...rho is now being a solid citizen, but lho has either belatedly woken up to the fact that he should have falsecarded by returning the 8 from 8xx at trick 3, and is now falsecarding, or he DID falsecard at trick 3, only to be forced to come clean now. Hmmmmm.....few opps will falsecard at trick 3 simply because they won't have visualized the endgame, but falsecarding now isn't that tough.
So if LHO plays the lowest available club on my heart, I exit a spade, playing LHO to be honest and RHO to have falsecarded
If LHO plays a middle x, then I cash the diamond K
If LHO plays the 8, I also cash the diamond K, playing him for a late rather than an early falsecard.
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Posted 2014-January-28, 18:47
LHO could also pitch a spade leavng him with either 4333 or 4342, but that would be even more rare.
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Posted 2014-January-28, 19:02
Fluffy, on 2014-January-28, 18:47, said:
LHO could also pitch a spade leavng him with either 4333 or 4342, but that would be even more rare.
It would be really rare, since that would require that the deal contained 14 spades
RHO pitched a spade on the 3rd heart...I know, why wouldn't he pitch a club? But that is how the play is said to have gone.
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Posted 2014-January-29, 03:12
mikeh, on 2014-January-28, 16:09, said:
If LHO is 3=3=4=3, with Axx Axx J9xx Axx, then as fluffy says, the last trump squeezes him: he has to pitch his club exit and now we lead our last spade.
On the other hand, if he is 3=3=3=4, with Axx Axx J9x A8xx, we are screwed...he pitches a club, but retains one to lead to his partner. This requires RHO to keep his 'idle diamond' but he can pitch his spade instead, and throw the diamond on our spade 'exit'.
Which is which?
Fluffy's point about the lead is valid, in that J9x has to be about the worst lead possible, but take a look at his alternatives on the posited 3=3=3=4 hand. I would, personally, probably lead the club A...I wouldn't lead spades since partner didn't balance (not that that is a big inference with our hand) and because I tend to think the longer suit is the least likely to blow a lot of tricks, and I wouldn't lead trump since this is way too dangerous.
There is another clue. Look at the second round of clubs. RHO didn't play the 8. Now, it costs nothing for him to play the 10 from J108, but most players don't think that way at the table. So the odds are that RHO lacks the 8. Look at what LHO returned. Again, if he can figure out what is going on, it costs nothing for him to falsecard with the x from a current holding of 8x, but most players just return the 8 without thinking.
So since he returned the x, he likely has 8xx left.
What makes me decide this is what is going on is that for 3=3=3=4 to be wrong, both opps have to have falsecarded in clubs, which seems unlikely to me, assuming that they are semi-competent and thus would usually make the normal play. If they are so bad that they play randomly, then nothing really matters anyway.
Btw, I detest the opening bid.
edit: we cash the heart anyway, of course, since there is little cost to doing so and the opps might give the game away. LHO has to pitch a club and it will be interesting to see which one it is.
If it is lower than the one he returned at trick 3, then I will play rho to be devious with the QJ108, concealing the 8.
If it is higher, but not the 8, I will play LHO to have had A8xx, because that is the 'normal' way of playing and pitching clubs for a defender who hasn't looked deeply into the situation, and this also means that I don't have to assume rho falsecarded concurrently with lho.
But what if LHO pitches the 8, as he should (imo) pitch. That is a very interesting card, because it removes the inference about rho...rho is now being a solid citizen, but lho has either belatedly woken up to the fact that he should have falsecarded by returning the 8 from 8xx at trick 3, and is now falsecarding, or he DID falsecard at trick 3, only to be forced to come clean now. Hmmmmm.....few opps will falsecard at trick 3 simply because they won't have visualized the endgame, but falsecarding now isn't that tough.
So if LHO plays the lowest available club on my heart, I exit a spade, playing LHO to be honest and RHO to have falsecarded
If LHO plays a middle x, then I cash the diamond K
If LHO plays the 8, I also cash the diamond K, playing him for a late rather than an early falsecard.
On the other hand, if he is 3=3=3=4, with Axx Axx J9x A8xx, we are screwed...he pitches a club, but retains one to lead to his partner. This requires RHO to keep his 'idle diamond' but he can pitch his spade instead, and throw the diamond on our spade 'exit'.
Which is which?
Fluffy's point about the lead is valid, in that J9x has to be about the worst lead possible, but take a look at his alternatives on the posited 3=3=3=4 hand. I would, personally, probably lead the club A...I wouldn't lead spades since partner didn't balance (not that that is a big inference with our hand) and because I tend to think the longer suit is the least likely to blow a lot of tricks, and I wouldn't lead trump since this is way too dangerous.
There is another clue. Look at the second round of clubs. RHO didn't play the 8. Now, it costs nothing for him to play the 10 from J108, but most players don't think that way at the table. So the odds are that RHO lacks the 8. Look at what LHO returned. Again, if he can figure out what is going on, it costs nothing for him to falsecard with the x from a current holding of 8x, but most players just return the 8 without thinking.
So since he returned the x, he likely has 8xx left.
What makes me decide this is what is going on is that for 3=3=3=4 to be wrong, both opps have to have falsecarded in clubs, which seems unlikely to me, assuming that they are semi-competent and thus would usually make the normal play. If they are so bad that they play randomly, then nothing really matters anyway.
Btw, I detest the opening bid.
edit: we cash the heart anyway, of course, since there is little cost to doing so and the opps might give the game away. LHO has to pitch a club and it will be interesting to see which one it is.
If it is lower than the one he returned at trick 3, then I will play rho to be devious with the QJ108, concealing the 8.
If it is higher, but not the 8, I will play LHO to have had A8xx, because that is the 'normal' way of playing and pitching clubs for a defender who hasn't looked deeply into the situation, and this also means that I don't have to assume rho falsecarded concurrently with lho.
But what if LHO pitches the 8, as he should (imo) pitch. That is a very interesting card, because it removes the inference about rho...rho is now being a solid citizen, but lho has either belatedly woken up to the fact that he should have falsecarded by returning the 8 from 8xx at trick 3, and is now falsecarding, or he DID falsecard at trick 3, only to be forced to come clean now. Hmmmmm.....few opps will falsecard at trick 3 simply because they won't have visualized the endgame, but falsecarding now isn't that tough.
So if LHO plays the lowest available club on my heart, I exit a spade, playing LHO to be honest and RHO to have falsecarded
If LHO plays a middle x, then I cash the diamond K
If LHO plays the 8, I also cash the diamond K, playing him for a late rather than an early falsecard.
Interesting analysis, thanks!
At the table LHO didn't duck the ♠ so the hand was over. I was however catering for a 3=3=4=3 (like Fluffy) and was planning to play a ♥ followed by a ♠ which would've resulted in 1 down. Lefty didn't have a 3=3=4=3, instead he had a 3=3=3=4 and didn't like to (under)lead an Ace. Granted, small from J9x isn't great at all, but (under)leading an Ace can also turn out quite poorly.
The hand made me think if there's a way to know (or figure out) if LHO has 3 or 4 ♦s. At first glance I was wondering if you can conclude anything from the fact that RHO didn't continue ♦s immediately. Following Mikeh's logic, on the play of the ♥ we'll see how many ♣s LHO has (unless he's brilliant or completely nuts ofcourse) and in fact figure out his number of ♦s in the process. Moreover, if RHO starts to think before discarding a ♣ on our ♥, he'll give the show away as well.
Hope I haven't disappointed Dake too much...
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Posted 2014-January-29, 11:16
Two additional considerations:
- Maybe East would have balanced with a 6c♣?
- Strength of West is also important: Maybe he is good enough to count the hand and knows that Diamonds are 3334, but has not enough imagination to realize that you can still have a problem because you can think that ♦'s are 4-2. The probably of ♦'s 4-2 is then higher when he ducks ♠'s twice (because he may think that ducking does not matter if they are 3-3).
BTW: Do you think either East or West should have bid?
- Maybe East would have balanced with a 6c♣?
- Strength of West is also important: Maybe he is good enough to count the hand and knows that Diamonds are 3334, but has not enough imagination to realize that you can still have a problem because you can think that ♦'s are 4-2. The probably of ♦'s 4-2 is then higher when he ducks ♠'s twice (because he may think that ducking does not matter if they are 3-3).
BTW: Do you think either East or West should have bid?
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Posted 2014-February-03, 11:54
Fluffy, on 2014-January-28, 03:53, said:
LHO has 3343, he is strip squeezed on the heart.
I think rho would have returned a diamond with AxD and Kx hearts. I would play for 3334. I would also cash the heart nice and fast,a and you are likely to read it quite often if he is in fact squeezed.
Also, its not obvious to me why lho cant have led from 9xx. From rho's pov switching from diamonds cant really cost when partner has four diamonds, and he could have had four the K at this stage?
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Posted 2014-February-03, 16:40
phil_20686, on 2014-February-03, 11:54, said:
I think rho would have returned a diamond with AxD and Kx hearts. I would play for 3334. I would also cash the heart nice and fast,a and you are likely to read it quite often if he is in fact squeezed.
Also, its not obvious to me why lho cant have led from 9xx. From rho's pov switching from diamonds cant really cost when partner has four diamonds, and he could have had four the K at this stage?
Also, its not obvious to me why lho cant have led from 9xx. From rho's pov switching from diamonds cant really cost when partner has four diamonds, and he could have had four the K at this stage?
The first part you are right, but with ♦AJx RHO wouldn't play the ace at trick 1.
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