[EricK]

Here's a couple of hands from tonight where the decision to pass/double/bid did not lead to good results:

1.

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At this position and vulnerability, partner's pre-empt is going to be fairly "classical". Is this an obvious matchpoint double? An obvious pass? An obvious 5♠ bid? Or not obvious at all (if so, what would you actually choose)?

2.

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Is this an obvious matchpoint double? An obvious pass? An obvious 5♥ bid? An obvious 4NT bid? Or not obvious at all (if so, what would you actually choose)?

[Hanoi5]

I'd double both. I think it's clearer in the 2nd one though.

[akwoo]

On (1)

If either opponent is void in spades, or someone has a minor suit singleton (unlikely), then bidding is correct, because someone will make a 5 level contract, 21 total tricks being very likely. (There are 5 total losers, the A of hearts and 2 in each minor suit (unless they split 4333 around the table). If spades split 1-1, that's a sixth loser.) This is pretty close to 50%.

Bidding is still correct on many hands with 20 total tricks, basically unless each side makes 10.

I bid.

On (2)

Generally I double, because it looks like we have 3 losers (2 spades + ?) at any contract. However, if opponents are known to be timid bidders and partner could actually have a small spade singleton on this bidding, I bid.

[RSClyde]

1) I don't have a clear picture of who's making what. They're at the 5 level so I'm happy.
2) This auction is almost unbelievable at these colors. I would say it's a clear pass. Technically something other than pass probably is right, but your hand doesn't suggest a different call and you aren't required to guess.

[Yu18772]

1) Pass. Do not know who makes what, but wasn't pushing them to 5 the point? I had no expectation of partner necessarily making 4!s.
2) Double. If they make, this is a bad board anyway, if they don't double is the only way we get better than 420 score.

2nd looks more obvious to me than 1st, but I can't say either are clear cut.

Yu

[GreenMan]

1) Pass. I doubt we're making 11 tricks. On a good day on defense we'll get a club and two red-suit tricks, but I'm not confident enough to double. (I assume North has a spade void for his 5♥ bid.)

2) Double. They don't sound confident they'll make 4♠. Meanwhile, partner could have been bidding to make or hoping I had some good cards. I can't tell if I have good cards or not, so I'm taking the money.

[RSClyde]

The second problem is interesting. Here is a side question: Do you think they will make 4♠?
I'm getting that many players view this as a clear "no". I'm not so sure at all. This auction really does sound impossible, how can you bid 4♠ now at these colors? At least if you bid it right away it would have given the opponents a chance to go wrong (or at least not double you), even if you did think it likely to go off one. So I'd have to think that the 4♠ bidder didn't bid his hand very well. It such case, he may just not be a very good player, that was sort my impression. So the fact that he (bid as if he) doesn't believe that 4♠ is making, may mean very little. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this was a hand where most were raising to 4♠ right away.

The question of whether you should double is a more complex one.

[kuhchung]

1. pass, no idea who's making
2. I always just eyeroll pass the check raises. Partner was under a lot of pressure and HQ is negative defense

[Fluffy]

The first one I am thinking about bidding on, but it has 2 ways to lose: 500 and 5♥ being down somehow. So I would pass.

Second one is obvious, opponents don't think they can make 4 spades and I don't have any reason not to trust them.

[helene_t]

On the first one I pass. I think it will make about half the time, and sometimes 5♠ will be three off. So double is better than 5♠.

On the second one I pass as well. Double could work if it is take-out but I think most partners will expect a more defensive hand (gwnn's rule: doubles on retarded bids are penalty). In any case, we are very likely to be in a normal spot.

[StevenG]

If I'm not prepared to double the second one, I'm wondering why partnrt bid 4♥ in the first place.

[rmnka447]

Hand #1 - If partner has a classic 3 ♠ bid, then you weren't bidding 4 ♠ to make. So any positive score would beat the score from your previous bidding decision. So, 5 ♥ off 1 rates to be an above average result. If you double and 5 ♥ goes down, you get a top. If it makes, you're getting a bottom. But 5 ♥ undoubled making rates to be an average result.

Additionally, if you double, you're giving declarer a clue about where most of any missing values in the hand are. Declarer may play you for then anyhow, but without any information in the
form of a double, it may be less clear for declarer.

IMHO, pass is correct. You've already achieved one matchpoint goal in pushing them up another level. Now, see if you can beat them.


Hand # 2 - By passing over 3 ♠, preempter's partner has already announced not having enough values to make bidding 4 ♠ a good bet. You have no idea whether 5 ♥ may make or not. You do have what looks like one pretty sure trick and a couple potentially useful side suit cards.

I'd double and lead ♥ Q.

[EricK]

On hand 1, partner chose to double. 5♥ made even though my ♠A lead held the first trick. Declarer had something like ♠4 ♥KQJT2 ♦AQJ9 ♣AT9, and dummy had ♥986543 ♠8 ♦865 ♣K62.

On hand 2, I chose to double, and led the ♥Q, and again the contract made. Dummy had ♠JT4 ♥73 ♦QT75 ♣AKT2 and declarer had ♠AKQ9862 ♥T54 ♦3 ♣75. Obviously partner's 4♥ bid was at the lower end of the range

[HighLow21]

Pass and double. Two good advertisements in my view for the idea that the 5-level belongs to them not us.

Hand I: It's unlikely that 5♥ is making while 5♠ is also. True, 5♠ down 1 is a good sacrifice when 5♥ is making. But it's not a good one if there's a chance to set 5 hearts.

It's hard to tell who makes what, but I'm going to guess that the club suit will be an important factor. It's very possible that 5♥ is down and 5♠ is also. No need to gild the lilly by doubling because if 5♥ makes you have a guaranteed bottom.

Hand II: I do not see how anything but double is correct here. 4♠ will make some of the time, but it will be from freak distribution and it will be rare. Much more rare, in my guesstimation, than any bad result for your side if you pass or bid anything else.