Opening Lead Problem Unusual Situation
#1
Posted 2013-November-04, 07:56
Here is a highly unusual opening lead problem. The stakes are high, as it is the last board of the last round of the Swiss Teams, and your team is leading by 2 VPs. The first six boards have been reasonable, but they were all part score hands so it is likely that the match is close.
You hold:
Q86xx
9xx
Axx
Tx
Your opponents, who are very experienced players, are playing Blue Team Club, which means that the auction that you are facing is far different from the auction at the other table. Both vul, and the opps have the following uncontested auction:
RHO.....LHO
..1♠......2♥
..2NT....3NT
A very simple auction, but a whole lot of inferences. I have played Blue Team Club, but everyone has their own "flavor" of Blue Team, so I asked a lot of questions. First, the 1♠ opening is often on 4 cards. If opener is 2-suited, he will often open a four card suit and bid a longer suit second (Canape). And, since opener did not open 1♣, opener is limited to less than 17 HCP.
The 2♥ response is not game forcing, but shows at least 10 HCP. If responder has a strong hand with 2 suits, he will bid the shorter suit first and the longer suit next. So, responder may have a 4 card heart suit (in rare instances, responder could have a 3 card heart suit, but in that case he would have a strong hand with a long second suit).
The 2NT rebid by opener denies a 5 card spade suit. Opener MUST rebid spades with 5. He also did not bid a second suit, so opener is balanced (or he is not bidding the longer second suit because he does not have enough to force to game). The opps 1NT opening range is standard strong NT, so opener's typical range on this auction is 12-14. 2NT is not forcing.
Responder's 3NT shows enough to bid game opposite opener's nonforcing 2NT rebid, and tends to be balanced. Certainly, responder has no slam ambitions.
With all of that information, YOUR LEAD.
In the poll, I have only asked which suit you will lead. If you have any comments about which card in a suit you want to lead, feel free to comment. At the table, my partner and I play basic methods against NT contracts - 4th best from length and standard honor leads.
#2
Posted 2013-November-04, 10:33
1NT-2♣
2♠-3NT
At IMPs its a clear diamond lead IMO
#4
Posted 2013-November-04, 11:27
Partner rates to be 2-4 or 2-3 in the majors and if I'm going to hit them a club is more likely to do the job. 5 of those or 4 with decent spots works and they may well have only 3 diamonds.
What is baby oil made of?
#5
Posted 2013-November-04, 11:35
The 9 because if we are playing lavinthal signals it may deter a club return for the second lead through dummy. As partner knows it is not my suit, I would lead a low x if my Ace was in clubs.
#6
Posted 2013-November-04, 13:13
I should know after trick 1 whether the opening lead was right, and if I get in with a spade early I can judge where to switch if it was wrong.
#7
Posted 2013-November-04, 14:57
Based on my experience with Blue Team Club, I believe that a strong case can be made for spades being the weak spot in the opponents' hands on this auction. I led a spade, declarer winning in dummy, my partner playing the 9. Declarer went after clubs by playing A and another, my partner winning the K. My partner played the ♠J, and declarer, after much thought, decided to win the K (of course it did not matter). Now declarer tried to make his contract by running the ♥Q, losing to the K. Three spades and the AK of diamonds followed.
If you lead either a heart or a club, declarer has gained a tempo on you and can establish 5 clubs, three hearts and at least one spade. After a diamond lead, things are less clear. I am not sure which side will prevail.
I can't tell you why East did not bid 3♣ at his second turn to bid. Perhaps he decided that 3NT was the likely best game contract and he didn't want to give away any additional information. In any event, 3♣ was the last guaranteed positive score for EW, and I don't believe they can stop in that spot (nor would they want to, as 3NT is a pretty good contract).
#8
Posted 2013-November-04, 15:04
HighLow21, on 2013-November-04, 13:13, said:
I should know after trick 1 whether the opening lead was right, and if I get in with a spade early I can judge where to switch if it was wrong.
You have your opponent's directions wrong. My RHO opened 1♠ and my LHO bid 2♥.
#9
Posted 2013-November-04, 15:06
Fluffy, on 2013-November-04, 10:33, said:
1NT-2♣
2♠-3NT
At IMPs its a clear diamond lead IMO
Yes, if the opponents play weak NTs this might be the auction, but, as you can see from LHO's hand, that is far from clear with 4 hearts AND 6 CLUBS.
Besides, in the US, strong NT openings, even at the highest level of play, are still far more common than weak NT openings.
#10
Posted 2013-November-04, 15:32
What about the other table?" I can imagine anything from 1♦ - p - 1♥ - p - 1♠ (or 1nt) etc. to a loose 1♠ overcall with your hand. Many possibilities that would lead to a much different lead problem or a 3♣ contract.
What is baby oil made of?
#11
Posted 2013-November-04, 15:35
#12
Posted 2013-November-04, 15:44
ArtK78, on 2013-November-04, 15:06, said:
Besides, in the US, strong NT openings, even at the highest level of play, are still far more common than weak NT openings.
Art my apologies for misunderstanding -- I sometimes have trouble reading descriptions like this because everyone has their own style of notating them, and I read your column headers (wrongly) as "LHO" and "RHO."
If the spades are on your RIGHT, then the spade lead is unquestionably the right one in my view, given the info that you have. If partner has at least 2 spades and the J♠ or A♠ we are off to a really good start.