[dake50]

I ran a simulation with the first 2 hands having no bid, 3rd hand a normal 3C opener (7 cards or a good 6 card suit) and 4th hand fixed as shown. Results for number of tricks made over 1000 deals were:

. <=8 9 10+
♣ 528 283 189
♥ 613 190 197
♠ 376 254 370
NT 806 93 101

Difficult to be certain but it looks to me that 3♠ is a winner - it beats pass given that it makes 624 times (unless partner raises a lot when he shouldn't and 3♣ also makes quite often if you pass. --

*** Looks like 3C fails 52.8%; 3S makes 25.4%; 4S makes 37%...
always assuming we can get the 3S/4S decision right. I'd guess that switches 10% into 4S-1 from 3S tally.
Looks like pass wins most often. Wins big when we get set 3C + set 4S at the other table.
Further what if "normal 3C" is deviant in 3rd seat? Will 2+DT preempt find a double of 4S? On a non-strong auction by us?
A biggest plurality is 3S making 8 or fewer tricks 37.6%.
The double hoping to get 3H into the picture fails 61.3%.

[ArtK78]

dake50, on 2013-September-15, 06:45, said:

I ran a simulation with the first 2 hands having no bid, 3rd hand a normal 3C opener (7 cards or a good 6 card suit) and 4th hand fixed as shown. Results for number of tricks made over 1000 deals were:

. <=8 9 10+
♣ 528 283 189
♥ 613 190 197
♠ 376 254 370
NT 806 93 101

Difficult to be certain but it looks to me that 3♠ is a winner - it beats pass given that it makes 624 times (unless partner raises a lot when he shouldn't and 3♣ also makes quite often if you pass. --

*** Looks like 3C fails 52.8%; 3S makes 25.4%; 4S makes 37%...
always assuming we can get the 3S/4S decision right. I'd guess that switches 10% into 4S-1 from 3S tally.
Looks like pass wins most often. Wins big when we get set 3C + set 4S at the other table.
Further what if "normal 3C" is deviant in 3rd seat? Will 2+DT preempt find a double of 4S? On a non-strong auction by us?
A biggest plurality is 3S making 8 or fewer tricks 37.6%.
The double hoping to get 3H into the picture fails 61.3%.

Pass wins most often? You go plus against 3♣ 52.8% of the time. You go plus in 3♠ 62.4% of the time. And game is possible.

"A biggest plurality is 3S making 8 or fewer tricks 37.6%." Maybe I don't understand the definition of plurality. Are you saying that 3♠ making 8 tricks is a more likely conclusion that 3♠ making exactly 9 tricks or 3♠ making exactly 10 tricks? Who cares? I am concerned with 3♠ making 9 or more tricks.

Just looking at two of your results - 3♠ goes down 37.6% of the time and 4♠ makes 37.0% of the time. A virtual 50-50 proposition. If I were to flip a coin and say heads you are -50 (or -100), tails you are +420, I would take that choice over being +50 52.8% of the time. And my side controls whether we are going to advance 3♠ to 4♠.

I really do not understand your conclusion.

[quiddity]

I don't think pass is quite as bad as the sim suggests. Partner will balance on some of the slam-dunk hands where he has a stiff club and a max; he might even balance with a 4432 and two small clubs. So passing will not miss ALL the games.

[jdeegan]

rhm, on 2013-September-15, 06:14, said:

I value JLOGIC views, but I have my own head and I dislike idolization.
Even top players have been known to disagree on bridge issues.

Rainer Herrmann

For goodness sakes! All I am saying is that every Tom, Dick and Harry is forever eager to offer a bridge lesson. The wise bridge player must be discriminating in knowing whom to listen to. If two players who have represented a major country in international open competition (or something close to that) disagree about the right bid, that is to be taken seriously. Otherwise, just be properly appreciative you have had the opportunity to get a genuine bridge lesson for free.

[dake50]

[quote name='ArtK78' timestamp='1379258106' post='752940']
Pass wins most often? You go plus against 3♣ 52.8% of the time. You go plus in 3♠ 62.4% of the time. And game is possible.

"A biggest plurality is 3S making 8 or fewer tricks 37.6%." Maybe I don't understand the definition of plurality. Are you saying that 3♠ making 8 tricks is a more likely conclusion that 3♠ making exactly 9 tricks or 3♠ making exactly 10 tricks? Who cares? I am concerned with 3♠ making 9 or more tricks.

Just looking at two of your results - 3♠ goes down 37.6% of the time and 4♠ makes 37.0% of the time. A virtual 50-50 proposition. If I were to flip a coin and say heads you are -50 (or -100), tails you are +420, I would take that choice over being +50 52.8% of the time. And my side controls whether we are going to advance 3♠ to 4♠.

I really do not understand your conclusion.

*** 376 > 254 and > 370 Therefor is the biggest plurality. What do you not catch?
Again-1 3S goes plus 25.4% plus 37.0% = 62.4% ASSUMING YOU GET THE 3S/4S decision right.
If you err 10%, that's 52.8 for setting 3C compared to 52.4 (62.4-10%).
Again-2 construct the hand partner must have to make 4S when he bids it over 3S.
Justify your claim that is as likely as the 37.5% threshold for VUL-IMP game.
I want my partner to go 4S over 3S with SQxx, HQJxx, DQx, Cxx don't you?
If yes, you must have that much to try 3S.

[Vampyr]

gordontd, on 2013-September-13, 16:56, said:

I think you must be looking at some other hand.

I think that the problem is that the spades and clubs are difficult to distinguish in the diagrams -- though the many posts discussing a 3♠ overcall might have made the matter a bit clearer.

[lamford]

gordontd, on 2013-September-13, 16:56, said:

I think you must be looking at some other hand.

One in the beginner forum presumably.