[beatrix45]

Three spades seems best. Double followed by three spades shows more. Passing partner's three heart or three diamond response risks playing in a weak 4-3 fit rather than a 5-3 spade fit.

[CSGibson]

MrAce, on 2013-September-11, 15:56, said:

3♠ for me.

@OP: As i said in another topic, don't pay much attention to the quantity of votes, pay attention to who voted for what, unless of course voters are coming up with some convincing explanations.

I made my own chart for polls in BBF for example, there are 7 posters who i value their vote = 3 points, i have another 5 posters who i value their votes =2 points , i have 4 posters that i value their votes = 0 points and rest gets 1 points.

I am so curious as to who is on this list now. Oh Timo, leaving cliffhangers....

For what its worth, I do the same on Bridgewinners, making sure I "follow" people with a base of knowledge I really respect. Frequently this means that they have won a national championship (or I know them in real life and want their opinion), but I add and subtract from the list as I see fit based on their other postings.

[quiddity]

I really was surprised that basically no one chose to pass, even though I knew it wouldn't be a popular choice. Given that partner's range is something like 3-11, how often will we have the values for game? And of those times, how often are we going to get to game after taking whatever action we choose, and of those times how often are we going to get to the right game? That seems like a pretty small number.

By taking any action other than pass we're usually ending up in at most an 8-card fit and frequently a 7-card fit, and meanwhile we have a balanced hand with lots of prime values and the opponents are red so how bad can it be to defend?

[cherdano]

MrAce, on 2013-September-11, 15:56, said:

I made my own chart for polls in BBF for example, there are 7 posters who i value their vote = 3 points, i have another 5 posters who i value their votes =2 points , i have 4 posters that i value their votes = 0 points and rest gets 1 points.

Phew, at least you don't count my vote as a negative. Yet.

[the hog]

3S. If pd doubled I would be mildly surprised but would not criticise. X followed by 3S shows a MUCH better hand.

[JLOGIC]

We are almost never getting doubled by a passed hand facing a preempt. Maybe if partner bids, but that is unlikely if LHO has a penalty X hand type.

[nige1]

benlessard, on 2013-September-11, 07:44, said:

IMPs

My vote only got 130 out of 390.. ? While I was expecting something like 66%

---

IMO 3♠ = 10, Double = 8, Pass = 6.

[akhare]

3♠ for me -- X and then bid would show a stronger hand.

[aguahombre]

I don't understand why people believe the choice is between 3S and DBL followed by 3S. The choice is between a takeout double and an overcall.

[Flem72]

Many more 3♠ bidders, but the doublers, IMHO, seem heavily weighted toward very high level players.

[TylerE]

aguahombre, on 2013-September-11, 19:45, said:

I don't understand why people believe the choice is between 3S and DBL followed by 3S. The choice is between a takeout double and an overcall.

Yes, precisely. The whole reason I'm Xing is to get to 3red when partner has a not-uncommon unremarkable 3-7 count and a 5 bagger. Even a 4-3 is likely fine...and if partner has THAT hand it's probably worse than useless as a dummy in 3♠, might as well play in partners suit.

[dake50]

I actually like pass.
Partner's passed hand had better have 2 useful cards to even come close.
Shudder to think if West has everything over my tenaces and 3C was 3rd
seat with CAK-6th +HQJ10 +S:4-1.
East can try a double with his "good defense" preempt.
IMP's fear the -800 = -12 disaster more than 140-50 = +3.
AK +A +K is enough "stuff" but 5=3=3=2 is no surprise shape.

[the hog]

dake50, on 2013-September-11, 22:40, said:

I actually like pass.
Partner's passed hand had better have 2 useful cards to even come close.
Shudder to think if West has everything over my tenaces and 3C was 3rd
seat with CAK-6th +HQJ10 +S:4-1.
East can try a double with his "good defense" preempt.
IMP's fear the -800 = -12 disaster more than 140-50 = +3.

Do you fear 4S making as well?

[benlessard]

I tought that the distribution was going to be something like at least 60% for double and less than 5% for pass. But on BW there is a lot more 3S than double, also the number of passers is really puzzling for me since I consider myself a conservative player and dont really consider passing an option.

Or course I plan to pass 3 red since X and 3S show a better hand. I guess I should strive to overcall instead of double a bit more.

[rhm]

JLOGIC, on 2013-September-11, 12:03, said:

I would always bid 3S, def think X then 3S should be more

Whether 3♠ or double is more likely to find the right strain can be argued. I would certainly overcall 1♣ with 1♠
The trouble with 3♠ is that at this level it is now a much more unilateral action and we might not belong in spades.
For example if there is a double you might well go for a telephone number against nothing.
DBL from us is far safer should we be outgunned.

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

rhm, on 2013-September-12, 05:09, said:

The trouble with 3♠ is that at this level it is now a much more unilateral action and we might not belong in spades.
For example if there is a double you might well go for a telephone number against nothing.
DBL from us is far safer should we be outgunned.

But the auction tells us that we're unlikely to be outgunned, and very unlikely to be doubled.

[TylerE]

It's conceivable that partner is as weak as a one count here (give both opponents bad 12 counts). We could very well be out-gunned.

[cherdano]

gnasher, on 2013-September-12, 07:02, said:

But the auction tells us that we're unlikely to be outgunned, and very unlikely to be doubled.

TylerE, on 2013-September-12, 08:46, said:

It's conceivable that partner is as weak as a one count here (give both opponents bad 12 counts).

I presume you are trying to support Andy's claim?

[dake50]

"Do you fear 4S making as well?" -- the hog
*** Picture for me what you think a passed partner's
hand MUST have to make 4S.
Isn't it 2 useful cards and something more?
Is that even in the 30% to expect from passed partner?
That repeats my reasoning.
Show your reasoning -- construct partner's hand and suggest
that construction is anywhere close.

[dake50]

"But the auction tells us that we're unlikely to be outgunned, and very unlikely to be doubled." -- gnasher
*** Assuming of course the 3rd-seat 3C was very weak. Not a good defense deviation in 3rd-seat.
If 3S is systemically not really strong: 18+; thus limited, won't that blab to good-defense 3C try double??
Some such as CAK +HQJ10 +Sx(S-void) suggesting bad S-split and a defensive bonanza.
Little danger in getting higher to 4C -- if partner can't see that bonanza.