[Flame]

I'll run the 10, if it loses to the J ill run the Q.

[inquiry]

Flame, on Jan 6 2005, 11:44 PM, said:

I'll run the 10, if it loses to the J ill run the Q.

I don't think that is right. It loses to KJxx two tricks to WEST, not to mention KJX with him. Leading low from hand handles all 4-0's, and taking two hooks is the same rahter you play to dummy and if that loses and hook back, or hook EAST for both honors. So the first trick is low from hand and if WEST plays low, play low from dummy. The question is, if this loses to the jack, do you play EAST for KJx or Jx. Still thinking about that and how good west is (would he duck with Kx when low lead towards dummy).

[fred]

I always thought you were supposed to play the Ace first (except playing against a player who would never duck from Kx - then low toward the Q10x is better). I am pretty sure this is right if you have a 5-4 fit, but I could see KJxx considerations might change this in the actual 6-3 fit.

I'm afraid I had a little too much wine with dinner to make a serious effort to work this out "properly" right now - what you read above is from memory (and it is probably wrong or it wouldn't be your favorite suit combination).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[sceptic]

lead the 9 and finese it against the Q if jack played cover with Q, dont try and cover the K with a jack , I think this way makes which ever side has 4/0 dist

[EricK]

I can see 7 possible appraoches

1. Cash Ace: This wins against all 2-2 splits, all 3-1 splits except x KJx, and no 4-0 splits

2. Run Q, then if it loses run T: This wins against all 2-2 except KJ xx, all 3-1 except KJx x and one of the 4-0 splits

3. Run Q then if it loses cash A: This wins against all 2-2; all 3-1 except KJx x and K Jxx and one 4-0

4. Try to run 9, then if it loses (and 4-0 not revealed) run Q: this works against all 2-2 except Kx Jx; all 3-1 except Kxx J; and both 4-0 splits

5. Try to run 9 then if it loses (and 4-0 not revealed) cash A: this works against all 2-2; all 3-1 except Kxx J and x KJx; and both 4-0

6. Small to the Q then try to run T: This picks up all 2-2 except Jx Kx; all 3-1 except KJx x and Jxx K and one 4-0 split

7. Small to the Q then cash A: this picks up all 2-2; all 3-1 except KJx x and Jxx K and one 4-0 split

I think that line 5. is the best. It is clearly better than 3, 6 &7, and I think it is better than the others although I haven't worked out exact percentages.

Eric

[Flame]

inquiry, on Jan 6 2005, 10:52 PM, said:

Flame, on Jan 6 2005, 11:44 PM, said:

I'll run the 10, if it loses to the J ill run the Q.

I don't think that is right. It loses to KJxx two tricks to WEST, not to mention KJX with him. Leading low from hand handles all 4-0's, and taking two hooks is the same rahter you play to dummy and if that loses and hook back, or hook EAST for both honors. So the first trick is low from hand and if WEST plays low, play low from dummy. The question is, if this loses to the jack, do you play EAST for KJx or Jx. Still thinking about that and how good west is (would he duck with Kx when low lead towards dummy).

Iv developed my suit combo approach in the last 3 days, which worked fine till now, i first look for the more common distribution here 2-2 and 3-1, and find which way takes most of them, only if there are 2 equal lines ill check the less common 4-0.
Playing the 10 (or the Q) wins any 3-1 or 22 except both honors offside.
Playing low to the 10 and and loses to the J , then play the Q, loses to Kx(x) LHO and J(x) RHO, which is more then mine KJ(X) offside.
You also lose to KJx offside. So oviously to me KJ doublton offside if much less freqent then Kx + Kxx. adding one or 2 4-0 wont help you here (actually only one that yours take and mine dont.
Playing the Q is less good, it takes the same for the 3-1 or 22 distributions but as i said before when those are equal i look for the noncommon 4-0, and 10 is better here since it takes 4 onside.

[Flame]

Im begining to think my mind works diffferently then normal,both when im right and wrong, since like in the previous problem, no one suggest my line, even erick who supposingly giving all possible lines.

[Flame]

I change my vote, the A is better then the 10. The 10 is better for 4-0 onside, while the A is better for KJ offside. KJ onesided is better then 4-0 onesided.

[flytoox]

inquiry, on Jan 7 2005, 03:52 AM, said:

Flame, on Jan 6 2005, 11:44 PM, said:

I'll run the 10, if it loses to the J ill run the Q.

I don't think that is right. It loses to KJxx two tricks to WEST, not to mention KJX with him. Leading low from hand handles all 4-0's, and taking two hooks is the same rahter you play to dummy and if that loses and hook back, or hook EAST for both honors. So the first trick is low from hand and if WEST plays low, play low from dummy. The question is, if this loses to the jack, do you play EAST for KJx or Jx. Still thinking about that and how good west is (would he duck with Kx when low lead towards dummy).

I think this is exactly why you should take dbl finesse. If you play what you said, you are still facing another guessing game. The more we guess, the more likely we will be wrong.

[inquiry]

flytoox, on Jan 7 2005, 08:11 AM, said:

inquiry, on Jan 7 2005, 03:52 AM, said:

Flame, on Jan 6 2005, 11:44 PM, said:

I'll run the 10, if it loses to the J ill run the Q.

I don't think that is right. It loses to KJxx two tricks to WEST, not to mention KJX with him. Leading low from hand handles all 4-0's, and taking two hooks is the same rahter you play to dummy and if that loses and hook back, or hook EAST for both honors. So the first trick is low from hand and if WEST plays low, play low from dummy. The question is, if this loses to the jack, do you play EAST for KJx or Jx. Still thinking about that and how good west is (would he duck with Kx when low lead towards dummy).

I think this is exactly why you should take dbl finesse. If you play what you said, you are still facing another guessing game. The more we guess, the more likely we will be wrong.

Well, I KNOW that low to the TEN and then hook the QUEEN on the way back is better odds than simply double hook EAST to begin with.

Hook twice against EAST wins againsst...

xx KJ
x KJx
-- KJxx
J Kxx
K Jxx
Kx Jx
Jx Kx
Kxx J
Jxx K

leading low to the TEN and then hook wins against all of those just the same (except for Kxx with LHO opposite J) and KX opposite Jx, but also against..

KJ xx
KJx x
KJxx --

I think the odds of the two lines are 76 vs 80 in favor of my line...

[mpefritz]

Haven't worked this out, but low to the T seems right. Cash A if hook loses to J? Will work on later.

When listing different combinations to analyze, make sure you count things like WKx --- EJx twice (due to the 2 different spot card choices) and WKJ -- Exx only once. The W and E denote which player has those cards.

Although this is further splitting hairs, each individual 2-2 combination is slightly more likely than each individual 3-1, which in turn is more likely than the 4-0 splits (not knowing anything else about the other cards in the other suits BUT knowing that each hand had 13 to start with). No human can do these exact calculations at the table, though. (At least I hope not...)

fritz

[Flame]

inquiry, on Jan 7 2005, 07:22 AM, said:

flytoox, on Jan 7 2005, 08:11 AM, said:

inquiry, on Jan 7 2005, 03:52 AM, said:

Flame, on Jan 6 2005, 11:44 PM, said:

I'll run the 10, if it loses to the J ill run the Q.

I don't think that is right. It loses to KJxx two tricks to WEST, not to mention KJX with him. Leading low from hand handles all 4-0's, and taking two hooks is the same rahter you play to dummy and if that loses and hook back, or hook EAST for both honors. So the first trick is low from hand and if WEST plays low, play low from dummy. The question is, if this loses to the jack, do you play EAST for KJx or Jx. Still thinking about that and how good west is (would he duck with Kx when low lead towards dummy).

I think this is exactly why you should take dbl finesse. If you play what you said, you are still facing another guessing game. The more we guess, the more likely we will be wrong.

Well, I KNOW that low to the TEN and then hook the QUEEN on the way back is better odds than simply double hook EAST to begin with.

Hook twice against EAST wins againsst...

xx KJ
x KJx
-- KJxx
J Kxx
K Jxx
Kx Jx
Jx Kx
Kxx J
Jxx K

leading low to the TEN and then hook wins against all of those just the same (except for Kxx with LHO opposite J) and KX opposite Jx, but also against..

KJ xx
KJx x
KJxx --

I think the odds of the two lines are 76 vs 80 in favor of my line...

sry you are right , i made a mistake , for some resson i thought ur not making when east has a sgl.
Yes your line is better then runing the 10.
But what about playing the A ? stills seems best to me.

[Chamaco]

For 1 loser, I cash ace and small to the T if not covered:
this loses to a 4-0 splits and RHO holding KJx.

[Chamaco]

EricK, on Jan 7 2005, 08:48 AM, said:

1. Cash Ace: This wins against all 2-2 splits, all 3-1 splits except x  KJx, and no 4-0 splits

I think Ace and small to T wins to LHO holding KJxx and loses to RHO having the trumps, so it wins in half of the 4-0 splits

----------------------------

2nd thought:
OK I got it, Ace and small loses also to LHO habving KJxx: LHO goes up with K and eventually will score his J.

[Flame]

Chamaco, on Jan 7 2005, 08:33 AM, said:

EricK, on Jan 7 2005, 08:48 AM, said:

1. Cash Ace: This wins against all 2-2 splits, all 3-1 splits except x  KJx, and no 4-0 splits

I think Ace and small to T wins to LHO holding KJxx and loses to RHO having the trumps, so it wins in half of the 4-0 splits

----------------------------

2nd thought:
OK I got it, Ace and small loses also to LHO habving KJxx: LHO goes up with K and eventually will score his J.

No, it doesnt work for KJxx.
It also doesnt work for KJx offside.
But i still think its te best.

[mpefritz]

inquiry, on Jan 7 2005, 02:22 PM, said:

Well, I KNOW that low to the TEN and then hook the QUEEN on the way back is better odds than simply double hook EAST to begin with.

Hook twice against EAST wins againsst...

xx KJ
x  KJx
-- KJxx
J  Kxx
K Jxx
Kx  Jx
Jx  Kx
Kxx  J
Jxx  K

leading low to the TEN and then hook wins against all of those just the same (except for Kxx with LHO opposite J) and KX opposite Jx, but also against..

KJ  xx
KJx  x
KJxx --

I think the odds of the two lines are 76 vs 80 in favor of my line...

Ben,

May I add that low to the T and then CASH A (but leading the Q trying to induce cover) is a slight improvement on your line.

Clearly low to T, losing to J when EAST has KJxx, hook the Q back. No question.

Your line and my line will pick up KJxx with EAST and WEST as they start the same.

Where our lines differ is in the

Kx-Jx

and

x-KJx

It seems like maybe since there are equal numbers of these that our two lines are the same. BUT the a priori of Kx-Jx is actually slightly larger than the a priori of x-KJx .

So best line:

Low to T. If it loses to J, lead Q intending to overtake with A. This is especially nice if the dummy has a small spot and EAST doesn't know you had 6 cards in your hand to start with.

fritz

Addendum: Reading the other posts in full, I agree it matters how WEST will play with Kx. That might sway the odds towards hooking on the way back. If I think there is a small ( >3% is probably all we need) but real chance that WEST would not play low from Kx, then hook K on the way back if T loses to J in EAST. The slight advantage of the 2-2 vs 3-1 splits would likely be overwhelmed by the table reality of not ducking with Kx.

[inquiry]

mpefritz, on Jan 7 2005, 09:57 AM, said:

Ben,

May I add that low to the T and then CASH A (but leading the Q trying to induce cover) is a slight improvement on your line.

Well, to be honest, I haven't decided what to do on the second round if the Ten loses to the JACK. The "my line" you quoted was just showing if you are going to double finesee it is better to start low towards the dummy and then finessee on the way back than take the simple two finesseses through EAST. I haven't worked out the odds of play ace second time versus play hook EAST... but if the Ten loses, against almost all players, I would hook EAST since few (lucky for us) would duck Kx in front of dummy QTx..... now, if Fred was defending, I would have more work to do (so I guess I have more work to do)...

Ben

[fred]

mpefritz, on Jan 7 2005, 01:57 PM, said:

Low to T. If it loses to J, lead Q intending to overtake with A. This is especially nice if the dummy has a small spot and EAST doesn't know you had 6 cards in your hand to start with.

I 've had a chance to think about this now and I agree with Mpfritz.

The line he suggests loses only to J and KJx on your right and you can't do any better than that.

Nice problem Jlall - are we missing anything?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com