[Wackojack]

Scoring: IMP

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Bidding playing Acol
S W N E
1♦ p 2♣ p
2♥ p 2♠ p
3♦ p 4NT p
5♣ p 6♦ p
p p

West leads ♠A and continues with ♠3. North goes up with ♠K on 2nd round and East follows with ♠7 then ♠10. This is my analysis of the possible lines of play.

11 top tricks if ♦ not 5:1 or 6:0 (84%), how to make 12th.

1. Finesse clubs =0.5 x .84 = 42%
2. Ruff 3rd heart in dummy. Works if hearts 4:3 or (5:2 and ♦10987 with long hearts) = (.62 +.005) x .84 = 52.5%
3. Play ♣AK then ruff club in hand then if ♣Q comes down (34%). If not and all follow (62%), then play to ruff a heart as before. = ((.34 ) + (.62 x .62))x .84 = 61%
4. Play out all diamonds watching discards. If club is discarded, play out clubs and if the ♣ Q does not fall there is a likely squeeze in hearts and spades. If more than 1 heart discarded then play out hearts. If ♥J10 does not come down there is a certain squeeze on the other hand in spades and clubs. = 75%? (The ♠ threat is in either hand because the ♠10 has already come down)

Would the experts play for a squeeze in this way?
Would the experts prefer to play in 6NT?
I would be grateful for your views

[Free]

How about this line: You play 4 trumps, cash ♣AK (discarding your last !s), play ♠J, and if the Q still doesn't fall you probably have a double squeeze:

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After ♠7 and T in the first 2 tricks, I suspect ♠Q is in RHO's hand (who leads ♠A from AQ3 against slam?). If East shows out in ♠, then ruff and play your ♥s.

I would try this double squeeze, to get a "nice try" from partner if it fails, and a "very nice played" if it works

This line works if the black Q's are divided between the opps, if RHO has 3 ♠s from the Q, if ♣'s are split Qx-xxxxx or when one opponent has (4+♠s or 4+♣s) and 4+♥s. Ruffing that ♠ instead of cashing all your ♦s gives a little extra chance imo. Anyone can calculate this percentage?

[HeartA]

Free, on Jan 6 2005, 08:22 PM, said:

How about this line: You play 4 trumps, cash ♣AK (discarding your last !s), play ♠J, and if the Q still doesn't fall you probably have a double squeeze:

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After ♠7 and T in the first 2 tricks, I suspect ♠Q is in RHO's hand (who leads ♠A from AQ3 against slam?). If East shows out in ♠, then ruff and play your ♥s.

I would try this double squeeze, to get a "nice try" from partner if it fails, and a "very nice played" if it works

This line works if the black Q's are divided between the opps, if RHO has 3 ♠s from the Q, if ♣'s are split Qx-xxxxx or when one opponent has (4+♠s or 4+♣s) and 4+♥s. Ruffing that ♠ instead of cashing all your ♦s gives a little extra chance imo. Anyone can calculate this percentage?

Nice line.

[Fluffy]

I also love Free's line.

[helium]

Free, on Jan 6 2005, 08:22 PM, said:

How about this line: You play 4 trumps, cash ♣AK (discarding your last !s), play ♠J, and if the Q still doesn't fall you probably have a double squeeze:

Dealer: ????? Vul: ???? Scoring: Unknown

♠ J9 ♥ Q9 ♦   ♣ J ♠   ♥ AK85 ♦ 2 ♣

After ♠7 and T in the first 2 tricks, I suspect ♠Q is in RHO's hand (who leads ♠A from AQ3 against slam?).  If East shows out in ♠, then ruff and play your ♥s.

I would try this double squeeze, to get a "nice try" from partner if it fails, and a "very nice played" if it works 

This line works if the black Q's are divided between the opps, if RHO has 3 ♠s from the Q, if ♣'s are split Qx-xxxxx or when one opponent has (4+♠s or 4+♣s) and 4+♥s.  Ruffing that ♠ instead of cashing all your ♦s gives a little extra chance imo.  Anyone can calculate this percentage?

I would lead ♠ from AQx(x) against this bidding. u know from bidding declearer dont have !S Kx(x).
so why not??


i whould play 4 times tromp,club to ace, king of clubs and trow my last spade, ruff a spade and hope u have a show up squees or what ever its called:))

[Wackojack]

Unanimous support for your line. Thanks free!

[FrancesHinden]

You should look carefully at your opponents.

On an auction where South has shown no spade stop, some good players would lead a low spade from Axx(x). Indeed, if East has Q10x I bet you would have gone off on a low spade lead...

[Wackojack]

You have just answered my 2nd question Frances: "Would the experts prefer to play in 6NT"

Only a diamond lead wouldn't give anything away if North converted to 6NT.

[han]

Wackojack, on Jan 6 2005, 07:04 PM, said:

3. Play ♣AK then ruff club in hand then if ♣Q comes down (34%). If not and all follow (62%), then play to ruff a heart as before. = ((.34 ) + (.62 x .62))x .84 = 61%

Nice line Free.

As WackoJack seems to be interested in percentages, I think the above percentage is wrong. The chance that the queen comes down in three rounds is clearly correlated to the chance that the suit splits 4-3, so you have to be a little careful here. As the chance that the queen comes down is lower in the cases that the suit splits badly, the actual chance will be a little less than this 61%, I think.

[firechief]

I like drawing trumps and then ruffing out clubs, not spades. I think the spade ace followed by a low one smacks of the AQxx originally. Ruffing out the spade queen, I consider unlikely. So, instead I'll try to ruff out the club queen before playing for the double squeeze.
Joel

[Free]

firechief, on Jan 10 2005, 11:22 AM, said:

I like drawing trumps and then ruffing out clubs, not spades. I think the spade ace followed by a low one smacks of the AQxx originally. Ruffing out the spade queen, I consider unlikely. So, instead I'll try to ruff out the club queen before playing for the double squeeze.
Joel

Consider your chances: opps have only 6 ♠s together, where they have 7 ♣s. So the chance of any Q falling is bigger in ♠.

[flytoox]

I like the fourth line. If East holds the Q, then there is a marked automatic dbl squeeze.