Posted 2013-February-13, 07:59
Just to check: You have the hand labeled West, but the auction has E bidding 4♠. I am right that I am in fourth position, the auction starts with two passes and a 1♦ on my right, yes?
Give partner the ace of hearts, the ace of diamonds, the queen of spades and 6♠ still requires a little work, right? I suppose spade to the queen, finesse the heart, draw trump, cash the king of hearts, go to the board with the diamond ace, throw a diamond on the ace of hearts. 7+3+2=12, good enough. But it is asking a lot from a passed hand, no?
And if I overcall a spade, more often than not there will be a negative double on my left. partner is unlikely to have three spades so he may or may not have a bid, rho bids some number of clubs and now I bid 4♠. Is this really better? I'm not so sure.
The 4♠ is a pre-empt in the sense that it jumps to a high level contract but given that we are vulnerable and the opponents not, partner will be expecting me to have a hand with reasonable expectations of, with a little luck, making 4♠. Seems to me that's what I have. Bidding 4♠ right off seems to me to offer the best hope of being allowed to play 4♠, which I expect to like, and when the opponents compete further it seems to me I can just let partner do his best. It's asking too much to expect to be able to show this hand in detail or discover whether partner has the magic hand I need for slam. Better, I think, to simply announce that we can probably make 4♠, or close to it, assuming that my passed hand partner is not totally broke.
But yes, 4♠ could go wrong. maybe 6♠ is cold and we would have found it if I started with 1♠ or with a double. Maybe so, could be. I still bid 4♠.
Ken