[RunemPard]

This may be more of a "bridge psychology" question than percentage, but...

We came into a hand earlier where we were playing 4♠ with 9 winners, and a possible 10. The defenders have taken their A AK in offsuits quickly, and the only question that remains is...

AT9xxx
KJx

...for the trump suit, but that's not all!

During the 2nd club play, the player who led clubs throws off their good Q on partner's K. Partner started with xxxxx in clubs opposite my xx. So on the return of the club into our newly found void, we are left with a situation that nobody wants to be in.

Are they trying to get us to do something stupid?
Did they really lead x from QJx, even x from Qx is a little strange already.
Is our lefty really out? Do they have the trump Q?
Should we play our king and finesse through? Is there any psychology involved on them returning clubs, knowing partner is most likely void when we hold KJx in dummy?
Does the club return for a ruff typically mean that the Q is held by the other opp?

I am sure this is all irrelevant, but I find it interesting to think about anyways.

If you all want the full deals I can find them.

Partner held 6025 (bid a weak 2♠ over 1♥).
Opposite..3452 (16 HCP NT)

[kayin801]

---

1: Club A cashing with RHO, LHO playing low
2: Low diamond to J and A with LHO
3: Club Q to the K with RHO

So is the layout and play something like above, and the auction went (1H)-2S-(P)-4S or something equivalently unrevealing, and so the large hand is dummy? Can you be more specific on the play of the first 3 tricks and who had what honors?

I would place LHO with ♠Q, ♥K, ♦A, ♣Q for the opening bid, assuming RHO had ♣AK, if that's how I correctly interpreted your bidding and play so far. So it would make sense to rise with the spade A and hook, otherwise the opening is on a 9 count or something. If I'm misunderstanding your post then I can't know for sure what's going on.

If you're asking about this situation in general, I would take it as good opponents who are trying to put you on a trump guess. I would guess that the spade queen isn't dropping in 2 rounds but I don't think there's any other information from the play that guides us as to where the queen is. You can use the bidding though. I would expect LHO to be out of clubs, starting with Qx.

Edit: Maybe this is wrong due to me not being able to understand your post (a diagram and the first 3 tricks would be nice, if you'd clarify them) but without the club count (declarer has the 5 clubs?) RHO can't know that he might be giving partner a trump promotion, so the only thing it tells me is that he has either Qxx or x of trumps, so we only know not to play for the drop. Then again there's some opportunity for cross/double-cross there too.

[RunemPard]

Just a random post about this position, which happens at times...

Mostly talking about the situation where you are somewhat sure your lefty is out of the suit played while you are, and you need to decide how to play the Q here.

Could be sitting..

Qxxx ----
Qxx- x---
Qx-- xx--
Q--- xxx-
---- Qxxx
x--- Qxx-
xx-- Qx--
xxx- Q---

We will always lose against Qxxx, and it seems to be a 50/50 chance. Which leaves the only question being...

Is our lefty MORE likely to hold the Q, since righty knowingly led into our KJx on the table. He does not know who has the Q, but maybe he is playing for it to be there. The other thing to think about, is if our righty holds the Q, and is playing with our minds to force us into a losing line of play.

As I said in the post, I am sure there is no real answer...and a lot would depend on the opps levels. But, I still find it interesting to think about. This goes beyond percentages, IMO?