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What is the best chance to make this grand? Team match
#1
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Posted 2012-October-14, 16:38
After some frisky bidding, you arrive in the not very good contract of 7 diamonds. LHO leads a small spade (3.,5.), and now you have to weigh your options. Obviously, you need clubs 3-2 (although lucky splits may see you through when the club queen is singleton), but how do you go about establishing the club suit?
#2
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Posted 2012-October-14, 16:46
Hm. Diamond A, Club AK and a club, if LHO follows ruff with the king and finesse for the jack back, and if discard you ruff, but if he ruffs with the 9...play him for J9x?
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#3
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Posted 2012-October-14, 21:26
I got 2 ♠ tricks, 1 ♥ trick, likely 5 ♦ tricks and 2 ♣ tricks. So I need to establish 3 additional tricks. Doing that in ♥ is extremely unlikely, ♠ also. I need to establish tricks in clubs.
Win the ♠] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks.
If clubs are 4-1, then it's time to start finessing some hearts.
This line will always make if clubs are 3-2 and diamonds split no worse than 3-2. It will also make if West has 2 clubs and 4 diamonds.
If I did the math right, this gives me about a 54% of making the contract.
Win the ♠] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks.
If clubs are 4-1, then it's time to start finessing some hearts.
This line will always make if clubs are 3-2 and diamonds split no worse than 3-2. It will also make if West has 2 clubs and 4 diamonds.
If I did the math right, this gives me about a 54% of making the contract.
#4
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Posted 2012-October-14, 23:43
cargobeep, on 2012-October-14, 21:26, said:
Win the ♠] Ace, play the Ace-King of clubs. If clubs have split 3-2 (indicated after trick 2), lead a club. If West shows out, overtrump if they ruff, otherwise ruff with the 2. If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks.
you're in grand, not 6
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#5
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Posted 2012-October-15, 01:19
Yeah, but 12 is a typo - insomuch as I was able to follow the line, it comes to 13 tricks.
#6
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Posted 2012-October-15, 02:33
cargobeep, on 2012-October-14, 21:26, said:
...If West follows, I ruff low. Then I win the lead, draw trumps ending in dummy, and play clubs making 12 tricks...
'Winning the lead' kinda implies just making 12 tricks, doesn't it?
#7
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Posted 2012-October-15, 03:34
Oh, right. Thanks, missed that.
#8
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Posted 2012-October-16, 02:03
Thanks - Hanoi's line is probably best in isolation. However, today it would fail because the minor suits were divided as follows;
W: ♦Jxx ♣ Qxx
E: ♦ 9x ♣ xx
So it turns out that the grand could have been made by cashing KA of diamonds, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade back and claim (works whenever the hand with double clubs also has double diamonds, or whenever either opponent have exactly ♦J9). This line seems inferior, but what about the inference that west didn't lead a trump - does this make it more likely that he has the jack, and if so, how much does it change the odds in favour of the winning line? Say against a strong opponent.
W: ♦Jxx ♣ Qxx
E: ♦ 9x ♣ xx
So it turns out that the grand could have been made by cashing KA of diamonds, ruff a diamond, ruff a spade back and claim (works whenever the hand with double clubs also has double diamonds, or whenever either opponent have exactly ♦J9). This line seems inferior, but what about the inference that west didn't lead a trump - does this make it more likely that he has the jack, and if so, how much does it change the odds in favour of the winning line? Say against a strong opponent.
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