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Romney vs. Obama Can Nate Silver be correct?

#981 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-07, 22:55

 TimG, on 2012-November-07, 13:17, said:

Religion adds some extra beliefs, things like creationism. When those of religious conviction try to force those beliefs on us (or our children), for me it becomes a problem of religious conviction. Sure, I would object to teaching creationism even if those behind the advocacy were doing so for scientific reasons, but no one has yet found scientific support for creationism; some opinions cannot be separated from religion.


I don't understand this. You are saying that even it some scientific basis was found for creationism, you would still object to its being taught?
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#982 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 00:26

I think he's saying that there are parts of Creationism that cannot have a scientific basis, because they contradict knowledge that does have a scientific basis, and do so on the basis of faith only, without any evidence at all, other than the words written in the Bible.
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#983 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 00:39

People still questioning nate silver? lol
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#984 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 01:31

 hrothgar, on 2012-November-07, 18:19, said:

I know the words to the Deutschlandlied... You don't hear the early stanza's too much any more, but it starts like this:

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt,
Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze
Brüderlich zusammenhält.
Von der Maas bis an die Memel,
Von der Etsch bis an den Belt,
Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt!

And don't think for a moment that folk's aren't think of these lyrics when the current German national anthem is sung... (The CDU tried to get the first stanza re-incorporated as recently as the 1980s)

I work in Germany. I think that you couldn't be more wrong here. Germany is the ultimate country without national pride... because they know what it can lead to. Germany has national shame, still 70 years after WW II.

Just because some politician has suggested to get the original lyrics back doesn't mean that "German folks" want that. That is like saying that folks in America (which includes you) know that women cannot get pregnant when they are raped since the body has mechanisms to shut it off. It is equally wrong.

Rik
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#985 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 02:53

 kenberg, on 2012-November-07, 16:51, said:

But just out of curiosity, has Morning Joe had any second thoughts?

I missed the part where he articulated his first thoughts.
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#986 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 04:02

Just for some Nate balance, here and here are more detailed tables of predictions. In addition to Nate, Sam Wang, Drew Linzer, Josh Putnam and Markos Moulitsas all appear to have predicted the outcome correctly, albeit in a less high-profile way. Simon Jackman (Pollster) is also reported to have predicted 332. Clearly Nate is the big winner though and sales of his book are going through the roof.

As for being the greatest nation, I have found plenty of people online calling New Zealand or Canada the greatest nation in the world. But for giggles, I am going to include 3 excerpts from a speech last month. Question: who said it and is it offensive?

Quote

…the best country in the world…
…and let’s say it: with <snip name of Head of State>, the finest Head of State on earth.
I was trying to think of my favourite moment.
Was it telling President Hollande that no, we hadn’t cheated at the cycling, we didn’t have rounder wheels, it was just that we peddled faster than the French?


Quote

This is still the greatest country on earth. We showed that again this summer.

and

Quote

The job of this party … of this government … is to help to bring out the best in this country. Because at our best we’re unbeatable.


The point is that it is completely wrong to say that other countries do not do this too. This is simply normal in politics. Being offended about every country that had someone say their country was the best is like being offended at every opponent that opens a Weak 2 against you.

There are millions of people out there who love to bash America. I hear or see some anti-American sentiment pretty much every month. The thing is, there are many worse nations that could have the place of America in the world. Does anyone seriously believe the world will be a better or safer place if/when China becomes a dominant power? How about if Iran or North Korea was "in charge"? Sure, there are plenty of things to point at in America and cringe about - spending over $2 billion on an election campaign where nothing much changed would be one - but there are also reasons to be glad that a democratic super-power is there. Putting up with them thinking they are "the greatest", or at least feeling that they need to say it, is such a small price to pay.
(-: Zel :-)
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#987 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 05:43

 blackshoe, on 2012-November-08, 00:26, said:

I think he's saying that there are parts of Creationism that cannot have a scientific basis, because they contradict knowledge that does have a scientific basis, and do so on the basis of faith only, without any evidence at all, other than the words written in the Bible.


Well, TimG used the phrase "for scientific reasons"; what reasons could there be unless some evidence of creationism (oops, I mean Intelligent Design) came to light?
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#988 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 07:23

 Zelandakh, on 2012-November-08, 04:02, said:

There are millions of people out there who love to bash America. I hear or see some anti-American sentiment pretty much every month.

I don't think you can call Wayne an America basher. He made an observation. I think that I made it sufficiently clear that I am far from an America basher. I just pointed out a cultural difference between Northern Europe (which to me means the Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, Scandinavia and Finland since they have similar cultural backgrounds) and the USA. I did not put a moral value on that difference.

Rik
I want my opponents to leave my table with a smile on their face and without matchpoints on their score card - in that order.
The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the new discoveries, is not “Eureka!” (I found it!), but “That’s funny…” – Isaac Asimov
The only reason God did not put "Thou shalt mind thine own business" in the Ten Commandments was that He thought that it was too obvious to need stating. - Kenberg
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#989 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 08:04

 Trinidad, on 2012-November-08, 01:31, said:

I work in Germany. I think that you couldn't be more wrong here. Germany is the ultimate country without national pride... because they know what it can lead to. Germany has national shame, still 70 years after WW II.

Just because some politician has suggested to get the original lyrics back doesn't mean that "German folks" want that. That is like saying that folks in America (which includes you) know that women cannot get pregnant when they are raped since the body has mechanisms to shut it off. It is equally wrong.

Rik



I am surprised to hear Germany is the ultimate country without national pride...


According to a new study, Germans finally have fallen in love with their country and believe they should be proud of it.

http://www.infoniac....ng-germans.html
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#990 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 08:13

 Trinidad, on 2012-November-08, 07:23, said:

I don't think you can call Wayne an America basher. He made an observation. I think that I made it sufficiently clear that I am far from an America basher. I just pointed out a cultural difference between Northern Europe (which to me means the Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, Scandinavia and Finland since they have similar cultural backgrounds) and the USA. I did not put a moral value on that difference.


Just because he said "millions", it doesn't mean he included you and Wayne.

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#991 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 08:44

 mike777, on 2012-November-08, 08:04, said:

I am surprised to hear Germany is the ultimate country without national pride...


According to a new study, Germans finally have fallen in love with their country and believe they should be proud of it.

http://www.infoniac....ng-germans.html


I would strongly suggest to take everything word for word which is written on the internet.

This source is crap. F.E.: We still condem the Nazi times and there are a million times more visitors to the Holocaust memorials then to all old Nazi sides.

But besides this, our national pride did indeed increase dramatically during and because of the World Cup 2006 in Germany. During that event we learned to show our flag again- not just during a soccer game, but even in public. Shocking. Does this sound funny to an US citizen? To an Italian, French, Brit, whatever? Yes? Hmm, so maybe we do have big problems with signs of nationalism.
But yes, our nationalism did indeed increase- from below zero to somewhere near not measurable. ;)
That is no surprise: If you are at the low end of a scale, it is much easier to increase something then it is at the top.
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#992 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:00

 Codo, on 2012-November-08, 08:44, said:

This source is crap. F.E.: We still condem the Nazi times and there are a million times more visitors to the Holocaust memorials then to all old Nazi sides.

It might have raised alrm bells for the previous poster when the very top story at the site reads "iPad cae that Turns into Bluetooth Keyboard". FWiiW I can confirm that practically every German I have ever met would not judge the Nazi regime to have been in any way ok. Indeed, I was watching the Real Madrid vs Dortmund game via a Canadian TV channel on Tuesday evening and was far more shocked by the racial stereotyping used by the (English) commentator than anything I have ever seen or heard in Germany.

What is true is that there is a sharp and disturbing increase of violence at football games in Germany, something which reminds me of England back in the day. The English violence was traced back to Fascist groups. So far there has been no (published) link found between such groups and the violence here although one must always be vigilant to prevent those with extreme views from restricting the freedoms of others or trying to undermine a society for this end.
(-: Zel :-)
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#993 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:05

The thing about America is that it is not just a country; it is an idea. Think of songs like Neil Diamond's Coming to America, West Side Story's America.

Going there is not like crossing the border from the Netherlands into Belgium. It's an ocean journey; it's a continent (sorry Canada and Mexico) -- you can get there from both sides. Many millions of immigrants went there with the realisation that they were never going back, nor were the friends and relatives they left behind ever going to visit them.

The "American Dream" is something people believe in, without irony. Simon and Garfunkel also had a song called America. In it there are a couple of people looking for America (which of course they are in). It's not just a place.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#994 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:09

Obama's language was just normal political rhetoric. I'll bet if you go back through speeches by all presidents during the past half century you'll find similar expressions.

Why does it happen more in the US than in many other countries? One reason may be that we've been one of the major superpowers in the world for a century, so we've gotten in the habit of thinking of ourselves as the best (the President is often referred to as "the leader of the free world"). It may have gotten worse in recent years, because we see ourselves as a big target -- when there are many terrorist organizations shouting "Death to America", it's natural to bump up the nationalist pride as a defense mechanism. And don't forget all the foreigners trying to immigrate here -- despite our problems, we're still seen by many around the world as the "land of plenty" that they aspire to move to, and that gives us a feeling of self-importance.

Finally, I think being bombastic is just part of our national DNA.

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:26

 JLOGIC, on 2012-November-08, 00:39, said:

People still questioning nate silver? lol

not me, not ever again
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#996 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:34

 kenberg, on 2012-November-07, 16:51, said:

Until this thread started I had never heard of Nate Silver. As far as I know, Florida has not yet been officially called. but just out of curiosity, has Morning Joe had any second thoughts? I also had never heard of Morning Joe until recently.


Joe who?
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#997 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:37

 barmar, on 2012-November-08, 09:09, said:

Obama's language was just normal political rhetoric. I'll bet if you go back through speeches by all presidents during the past half century you'll find similar expressions.

Why does it happen more in the US than in many other countries? One reason may be that we've been one of the major superpowers in the world for a century, so we've gotten in the habit of thinking of ourselves as the best (the President is often referred to as "the leader of the free world"). It may have gotten worse in recent years, because we see ourselves as a big target -- when there are many terrorist organizations shouting "Death to America", it's natural to bump up the nationalist pride as a defense mechanism. And don't forget all the foreigners trying to immigrate here -- despite our problems, we're still seen by many around the world as the "land of plenty" that they aspire to move to, and that gives us a feeling of self-importance.

Finally, I think being bombastic is just part of our national DNA.

And, if that is not enough, don't forget 9/11.
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#998 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:40

 y66, on 2012-November-08, 09:34, said:

Joe who?

Joe Scarborough, former Republican Congressman from the panhandle of Florida. He is the host of Morning Joe on MSNBC. A Republican as the host of a show on MSNBC? Yes. It is a very good show.
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#999 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2012-November-08, 09:56

 ArtK78, on 2012-November-08, 09:37, said:

And, if that is not enough, don't forget 9/11.

That's what I was alluding to when I mentioned the "Death to America" attitude in recent years.

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Posted 2012-November-08, 10:52

So I was wrong about the intrade markets: they were manipulated: http://rajivsethi.bl...ation-case.html

Re National Pride, I don't think it is the rhetoric so much as the fact that american's seem to genuinely believe the rhetoric. In the UK, its like a nice thing to say when your country is doing well at sport or something, but its not really something to get worked up about.

Take flag burning as an example. You get pretty worked up about that in the US, in the UK when there were protests in the UK about Iraq war, there was burning of the UK flag in the street, and so some conservative MP's started a motion to make flag burning illegal, it got a total of seventeen votes in a parliment of roughly 600 MP's.

I remember when some ex-POW's burned a rising sun flag at a state visit by a Japanese foreign minister, right in front of the Queen and the Japanese delegation, and they didn't even get charged with breach of the peace, which is the normal thing Police do when they just want to hold you for a few hours to prevent you making a scene.

The other thing of course, is that most europeans will laugh in your face if you suggest america is genuinely the best nation on earth. Richest, sure. But we cannot imagine a society without universal healthcare, or the abysmal state of your education that creates a virtually certainty of poverty in some districts. If you put america next to the core european countries (france, germany, uk, austria, finland sweden norway switzerland, and possibly add in european-model states like australia and new zealand)

America would be last in incarceration rates, last in gun crime, last in other violent crime, last in health coverage, last in equality, last in life expectancy, and on some measures, last on education standards.

On the other hand, you are significantly richer, but that might well just be an artefact of the dollar's status as a reserve currency.
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