[Phil]

gnasher, on 2012-May-31, 11:03, said:

Another advantage of running the queen is that they might duck with Kxx offside. Not everybody gives count all the time.

Wot? Declarer isn't leading the Q with AJx. Furthermore, depending on the auction (I can see 1♠ - 1N - 2♣ - 3♠ - 4♠), LHO already has a solid count on the hand without the benefit of partner's spot.

[gnasher]

rduran1216, on 2012-May-31, 10:45, said:

sorry change the heart spots in my example hand to comply with the lead.

If diamonds are 4-2, which is %, then we have a 50% guess as to which honors to play LHO for. If we come to hand w a trump, then lead up to the club J, we will still get a 10th trick so long as clubs are not 5-1, and the person with the club doubleton not having 3+ trumps.(clubs 3-3 will always get us the 3 club tricks we need.)

trouble is if diamonds are guessed wrong, doesn't the defense have easy trump exit cards to force declarer into some tough decisions later?

Trump returns don't cause me any problems. After the first diamond loses, they play back a trump. I win in hand and lead a club to the jack. RHO wins and plays a second trump. I win that in dummy and play another club. Hence I get the same chance in the club suit that you do.

Where I gain is that I may get a diamond trick immediately, whereas you aren't giving yourself any chance in the diamond suit.

Where I lose is that I may run into an overruff in the diamond suit, either because LHO plays one back immediately, or because I get overuffed after ruffing the fourth club in dummy (LHO being 3424).

[gnasher]

Phil, on 2012-May-31, 11:07, said:

Wot? Declarer isn't leading the Q with AJx. Furthermore, depending on the auction (I can see 1♠ - 1N - 2♣ - 3♠ - 4♠), LHO already has a solid count on the hand without the benefit of partner's spot.

Unless it started with a 1♦ opening.

[phil_20686]

Well the danger in ducking the first heart and playing this way is that lho might play a trump at trick two. Then if you cross in hearts and take a losing diamond finesse, another trump, and if the third trump is with QTxx club you lose the ability to ruff the fourth club.

Thats why i won the first heart, though I realise this is pretty unlikely. Just wasn't that sure that them having communication hurts me at all. In the diamond suit if it comes in I will have the winners to pitch two clubs.

[nige1]

Phil, on 2012-May-31, 11:00, said:

Ducking the heart is clear. You have to lose a heart trick in any event, and surrendering one early leads to an embarrassing continuation like diamond lost to LHO, diamond ruffed by RHO, heart over, uppercut.

Not clear to me: prefer to win ♥A at trick 1; and run ♦Q at trick 2

[gszes]

yours was not a terrible line but may i suggest

trick 1 duck
trick 2 win A
trick 3 spade toward K
trick 4 club toward J (assuming it loses) rho must return a
club to give you a problem
trick 5 win club**
trick 6 spade to A
trick 7 club toward hand

If rho ruffs we hope rho must return a dia from the K
If rho ducks we win and ruff our 4th club (hoping lho has the 3rd trump)*
If rho follows we hope clubs are 33 or rho has the 3rd trump so we
win and ruff our 4th club.

*if you are convinced rho has 3 trumps and did well to duck you need to
change your LOP to the dia A and a dia to the T (hoping rho has to win the
K) win any return in hand and pull last trump.

**If the play convinces you lho has 2 clubs and 3 trumps

trick 6 trump Q
trick 7 dia A
trick 8 another dia toward the Q
if this works you are psychic and should consider buying a lottery ticket today.



Playing the hand this way gives us a lot of flexibility and depending on how the
play goes several ways we can triumph. If we attack dia early we lose these
options while essentailly hoping for a defensive error or a lucky dia break
instead of taking our optimum plays to work with clubs.

[dave_w]

It's telling that the opponent's returned a Heart rather than switched to a Club at trick 2 (a good reason to duck?). I think I'd have ducked at trick one even without knowing about the continuation. It looks like either:
1) Trumps are 4-1 and the opponents are killing the Heart entry to the Diamonds (the trump entry is useless)
2) RHO has the Club Queen and doesn't want to break clubs (maybe even Qx)
3) RHO has Diamonds fairly well covered (KJxx might be enough that he doesn't see them as a threat or knows he has time to put a Club through later).

Whatever, I run the ♦Q at trick 3 (Justin has explained the reason why: they'll duck with Kxx(x) because it's the right play and I'll steal a trick)

If it wins then you are (almost) home (any time the hand is makable)
If it loses then they should return a Club (obvious need to establish tricks with threatening Diamonds in dummy - failure to do so is telling ... trumps 4-1??)
If it's covered then I win and play a Diamond (I think that means I'm home if trumps are 3-2 .... but see point one above ... I'm not thrilled)

If they play back a Diamond rather than a Club then I think I'm playing for trumps 4-1: cash a high trump, if an Honour drops on my right then play to be able to pick up trumps for no loser and Clubs for one loser (needs the Club Queen onside ... ruffing a Club means going down as I'll have a trump loser). If no Honour drops in Clubs (and Diamonds aren't good) then I'm looking at minute chances with trumps 4-1 so I think I'd pray for 3-2 trumps and lead a Club to the Queen.

I guess if Club to the Queen loses I'll have to try and ruff a Club in Dummy (nothing else looks better). Of course in all these lines I have to decide what I do if they ever play a third round of Diamonds through me (with Diamonds established/not established).

Basically gnasher's line but running the ♦Q rather than the Ten.

[dave_w]

rduran1216, on 2012-May-31, 09:30, said:

It just seems like with LHO holding Hx in diamonds and as little as 3 trumps, we r putting ourselves to a diamond guess at trick two which endangers the contract unnecessarily. Something like

---

I don't really know why I'm replying. But if picking on someone's line can you at least choose a layout where their chosen line fails and yours wins?

Or better yet - I don't care for the specific layouts. I don't want to think about all 423849723489238947238947234 hands that are possible, just say on what cases your line gains on and which it loses on (and if we care we can work out the maths - it's mostly too complicated ... a lot depends on inferences about the opponent's plays).

[phil_20686]

So what were the hands?

[JLOGIC]

phil_20686, on 2012-June-05, 13:33, said:

So what were the hands?

I played the DQ and went down. LHO had 1624 with Kx of diamonds, stiff small spade, 4 small clubs so this was about the only way to go down lol. I was heavily criticized in the post mortem.

I don't remember if it was mentioned in this thread, but one thing I was worried about with ace and a diamond is that RHO would win with KJxx of diamonds and give his partner a ruff with a doubleton trump. Now I'd go down if the CQ didnt fall.

[JLOGIC]

I am not sure if the line of thinking of: If I have a trump loser, I need 2 pitches, ergo the DQ is right, although that was my thought process at the time. If the DQ succeeds in getting us 2 pitches, it will usually be with 3-3 diamonds. If diamonds are 4-2, we will only get 2 pitches if the short spade has a doubleton diamond, else the 3rd diamond will get ruffed off. If diamonds are 3-3, ace and a diamond will be just as good (or arguably better I get diamonds right >50 % of the time). Since someone having 1 spade and 2 diamonds is unlikely (and we still need the diamonds to be favorable), maybe we should focus on getting 1 pitch, worrying about the times we have 2 club losers, OR the times that trumps don't break and we catch Qx of clubs. For those purposes ace and a diamond is better since we pick up Kx of diamonds on our left.

I am not sure, I don't think my line was that unreasonable and this thread seems to confirm that. My analysis was a little superficial though at the table.

[gnasher]

I think ace and a diamond is definitely worse than your line.

Let's assume that after we lose a diamond in either line, if they play one back we will read the position correctly.
- Ace and another gains when diamonds are Kx-Jxxx and ♣Q isn't on the left and clubs aren't 3-3. (We don't get the extra chance of ruffing the last club in dummy, because we were forced to draw trumps by the threat of a diamond ruff.)
- Ace and another loses when diamonds are xx-KJxx and ♣Q isn't doubleton.

Quote

I was heavily criticized in the post mortem.

Tell him he was wrong.