bigbenvic, on 2011-November-30, 04:13, said:
If E has 2 spades, does he hav Ax? what if he ruffs with the A and exits a ♦ eith K/Q or W plays K/Q? You've lost A♠, A♥, have Jxx offside which you can't pick up and your in dummy for the last time (assuming you win) and he'll ruff your last club small, thus you have no parking spot for your third ♦
With Axx trump and W having Jx he can ruff with the A and give partner an uppercut by playing a ♥
So anytime E has 1♣ and the trump ace (but not the J) you can be beaten on that line.
While this is true, the alternative line of playing a spade loses automatically when clubs are 4-1 and the As is offside. Moreover, if rho has two clubs you can now switch to a spade. Moreover, if its AJx spades offside, you can win by playing top club top club over ruffing and playing a top spade. when rho is 2-2 in the black suit. However, this line fails when its Jx onside as oppoents can get two tricks from A9x offside, so its all a bit complicated. Moreover, when you play a spade to the K a good defender will duck from Axx if partner is not ruffing the club, so you will have to guess teh spades anyway, and will probably guess rho to have Jx and lose when he has Ax anyway.
ALso, if rho is Ax - x in the black suits, then the defence has mis-defended by not switching to a diamond. - then they can engineer the uppercut for themselves.
I'm not really sure if this is a better line than switching to a spade at trick one, that also gains some of the time, but it feels like it is. There are so many variables in a hand like this that it isn't really a B/I problem.
The biggest loser to me is that rho might have 8 hearts. If that is the case then attempting to pitch a club on he heart K is not going to work out well....However, i that is the case you are always going to have a problem even if you play a spade, as they can lead a diamond to put you in dummy where they get a trump trick if you play a club, an uppercut if you play a heart, and one of those if you play a diamond.
So you need the hearts to be 7-2. If the clubs are 3-2, then you might want to win the club in hand play a spade from hand. Assuming you would choose to play rho for Jx rather than Ax when a spade to the K holds (which you should vs good defenders). However, your odds still arent that good, as you will still lose legitatemantely when ever rho has three spades without the ace - as now the defence will locate a diamond ruff. So you are playing for rho to be 2-7-2-2 precisely in effect. And not to have Jx of spades else a diamond switch at trick two will beat it legitimately anyway by setting up a trump promo on A9x spades offside.
If I instead played Kh pitching a club and clubs from the top I will make whenever rho has two spades essentially, as I can afford two spades and a heart, Even if rho has Ax and ruffs and plays a heart, I can simply pitch a losing diamond and they ruff with their natural trump trick.
If the clubs are 4-1, you still need the hearts to be 2-7, and by playing clubs from the top you will make whenever rho has three spades, and sometimes when he has two spades, like AJ or J9 (so as to rob west as a promotable holding).
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper