[Phil]

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OK, I think I figured this out. I'm not sure this is appropriate for BI or AE, because there are elements of both here. If Ben wants to label this, and fill in a series number, its fine with me.

Its IMPs.

Probably you should have made a takeout double and maybe you should have unblocked the ♥K, but its too late for either of those things.

This is a regular partnership. Your carding is UDCA, 3/low leads and standard present count. Your signals in the trump suit can be suit preference or count. It depends what partner thinks you need.

Your play to T5?

[inquiry]

Quote

Probably you should have made a takeout double and maybe you should have unblocked the ♥K, but its too late for either of those things.

This is a regular partnership. Your carding is UDCA, 3/low leads and standard present count. Your signals in the trump suit can be suit preference or count. It depends what partner thinks you need.

Your play to T5?

I wish we had been playing 4th best leads on this hand. Partner would have inserted the club nine at trick one (I would not have under lead AK of clubs) then, and I could have under lead the club king (by leading the two) later in the hand. Partner would have known to lead a spade back. Sigh...

Here is my shot at an answer

Spoiler

Partner can not have much. If declarer only has 14 hcp for bidding game, the most partner can have is another JACK, he can have the queen of hearts only if East bid game with 13 hcp, and the heart queen is the only queen HE could have.

First question, was partner trying to tell us he could ruff a club when he played the ♥2? The answer is, probably no unless he is a very good player and he truly respects our ability. Most people will play a low heart all the time here out of fear that a high heart might convince us he has a spade honor (which we know he can't possibly have). A great partner will realize that from our own holding we will know that he can not have a spade honor (assumption if we are beating this, I must have all our side points). So a great partner would play a high heart suggest a spade honor IF he couldn't ruff a club. This game can get tough,

So with a partner who would play a high heart in this situation anytime he couldn;t ruff the third round of clubs, I would return a club. So let's assume that we can't be certain what partners low heart meant.

If partner has the ♥Queen, this is down, we get ♠A, two hearts and the club already in the pocket. This does not even require me to cash the spade ace, because declarer can come to four hearts, a club, and three diamonds. Partner ruffs the fourth diamond and leads a spade.

So lets ignore partner having the heart queen. Can we set this without a club ruff if partner lacks the heart queen? There is one case. Declarer has a singleton diamond. We can exit with the ♦Ten and declarer wins in dummy. Now he has a problem. If he ruffs a club to pull trumps, he has to lose a couple of spades at least. If he runs diamonds, partner ruffs the fourth one and he overruffs, but comes to five hearts, 1 club, and three diamonds for only nine tricks. The problem with this defense is it fails if diamonds are 2=2, but only when partner can not ruff a club anyway, because declarer has no entry to his hand. So, it is diamond Ten for me to trick FIVE, if my partner is not, well, me. or someone who is on the same page as me about signalling.

[semeai]

Spoiler

If declarer is void in diamonds, we're fine as long as we don't play a diamond.

If partner has ♠K or ♥Q or lacks ♣3, we set by playing ♠A now (as long as we can interpret partner's signal and correctly continue spades or shift to a club). I suspect partner doesn't have ♠K due to his play in hearts. A club has nothing to gain but under/overtricks over a spade, but is no worse if partner lacks ♠K (notice declarer doesn't get enough pitches with Kxxx-AJ9xxx-x-Ax on a club exit). If partner fell asleep and played hearts up the line by rote holding ♠K, it's possible declarer has xx-AQJxxxx-xx-Ax. I'll favor a club over a spade if I trust partner (for the extra over/undertricks), but a spade over a club if not.

The only case this fails for which we can still set is if declarer has one diamond and partner has a low trump remaining, the ♣3, and no ♠K. Then we have to play a diamond now. Then declarer will only get three diamond tricks, five heart tricks, and a club. Certainly declarer with K(J)xx AQ(J)xxx x Ax plays as he did (and partner's signals are consistent with this).

If partner has ♥Q, the diamond return also works unless declarer is void in diamonds. A diamond return also sets when partner has a low trump and no ♣3 or when partner has ♥Q.

Taking as given for now that partner doesn't have ♠K, the diamond return fails when we can still set when declarer has any 4-7-0-2, any 3-7-0-3, any 4-6-0-3, Kx-AQ(J)xxx-xx-Axx, K-AQJxxxx-xx-Axx.

All of these hands are consistent with declarer's play and with partner's signalling. Together they must be more likely than K(J)xx AQ(J)xxx x Ax.

Thus I play a high club or, if I'm not confident that partner's ♥2-♥8 ruled out e.g. xx-AQJxxxx-xx-Ax, I'll play ♠A (giving up some under/overtricks sometimes).

[gnasher]

inquiry, on 2011-September-20, 14:13, said:

I wish we had been playing 4th best leads on this hand. Partner would have inserted the club nine at trick one (I would not have under lead AK of clubs)

What would you lead from K8642 ?

[gnasher]

I don't understand these constructions where declarer has a singleton diamond. On all such hands he would have started by throwing his club loser(s) on diamonds.

Similarly, if he had a doubleton diamond, he would have used one of his diamond entries to try to pick the trumps up.

So it seems clear to me that he has a diamond void. He probably has something like Kxxx AQJxxx - Axx, where his only legitimate chance was to find a singleton king of hearts. I play another top club. If partner is out of clubs, maybe he'll ruff and return a spade, but it doesn't really matter if he doesn't.

What have I missed?

[inquiry]

gnasher, on 2011-September-20, 17:02, said:

What would you lead from K8642 ?

Whoops my complaint is not valid if partner cant figure out that declarer has only one card higher than the one I lead. The six being "seen" in this format confusded me. This is the 2nd or third time I have been trip up by this, and I started it....

[inquiry]

gnasher, on 2011-September-20, 17:18, said:

I don't understand these constructions where declarer has a singleton diamond. On all such hands he would have started by throwing his club loser(s) on diamonds.

Similarly, if he had a doubleton diamond, he would have used one of his diamond entries to try to pick the trumps up.

So it seems clear to me that he has a diamond void. He probably has something like Kxxx AQJxxx - Axx, where his only legitimate chance was to find a singleton king of hearts. I play another top club. If partner is out of clubs, maybe he'll ruff and return a spade, but it doesn't really matter if he doesn't.

What have I missed?

Perhaps a couple of issues. The first is with a void in diamonds most people would not have accepted the game try. With a singleton diamond, he might want to hold off on diamond to dummy for heart finesse, which even if it wins, might not pick up the king third (or fourth). With two diamonds, a losing heart finesse would allow a diamond back, killing the dummy. So while it is true if he has a diamond void, a diamond back gives him 4♦, 5♥, 1♣, I would not be overly concerned with that. (remember what I said I would return if I could "trust" my partner to signal like I would).

Lets try different number of diamonds with EAST...
Zero.... well diamond back is not good
One... that has been discussed...
Two... (including the 9x in the two).. then the lead of Ten works when a club would have worked.
Three... (including the 9).. then the lead of the Ten works when a club lead would have.
Four... well partner is ruffing this one.

With 2-or-3 and a club in his hand, declarer has no way off the dummy. True, if he has 9x of diamonds, he can get to his hand to play a trump by playing a diamond to the nine, but then there is no way back to the dummy, so you will score two spades.

[semeai]

gnasher, on 2011-September-20, 17:18, said:

I don't understand these constructions where declarer has a singleton diamond. On all such hands he would have started by throwing his club loser(s) on diamonds.

Similarly, if he had a doubleton diamond, he would have used one of his diamond entries to try to pick the trumps up.

So it seems clear to me that he has a diamond void. He probably has something like Kxxx AQJxxx - Axx, where his only legitimate chance was to find a singleton king of hearts. I play another top club. If partner is out of clubs, maybe he'll ruff and return a spade, but it doesn't really matter if he doesn't.

What have I missed?

Okay, my "certainly" was quite an overbid and some of the hands didn't make sense. It still seems to be a reasonable line with the singleton diamond hands, though.

With Kxxx AQJxxx x Ax, declarer has several possible lines:
1) Play as he did, hoping the opponents don't lead diamonds and either the spade Ace is on or the opponents don't get to lead spades from that side
2) Cash two diamonds, pitching a club, and then lead a spade up, trying for a spade ruff. This works if the space Ace is onside, or if the opponents don't lead trumps twice if the spade Ace is offside, or if diamonds are 3-3 and the heart King is offside (dummy gets in with ♥10 to try the third diamond)
3) Try to cash three diamonds, then lead a spade up. This requires diamonds 3-3 and either the spade Ace onside or the spade Ace offside and hearts not xx-Kxx (or any 4-1 or 5-0 except stiff K)
4) Try to cash three diamonds, then lead a heart up. This requires diamonds 3-3 and the heart finesse on (or maybe some endplay chances)

It seems to be between 1 & 2. Both work on this layout!

There are variants with or without ♠J and ♥J.

With Kx-AQJxxx-xx-Axx etc I will admit declarer would have to take the heart finesse.

[semeai]

inquiry, on 2011-September-20, 18:49, said:

Perhaps a couple of issues. The first is with a void in diamonds most people would not have accepted the game try.

I don't see why. Any 4-6-0-3, 4-7-0-2, or 3-7-0-3 with ♠K, ♥AQJ, ♣A seems like an easy accept.

Quote

With two diamonds, a losing heart finesse would allow a diamond back, killing the dummy.

Unfortunately (assuming you can set him in the problem) he's off 4 top tricks if he gives up the heart. For example Kx AQJxxx xx Axx. He needs the heart finesse.

[wyman]

I'm surprised no one has addressed what partner's club 9 means. I'm still not sure when one would play it from 93.

In any case. It looks like if declarer has 2 clubs only, he'll be able to ruff the 3rd club back, draw trumps, and cash the diamonds out, pitching spades, unless he has 0 diamonds or 1 diamond and I hit it now. However, with 1 diamond, he'd have gone to dummy earlier and taken spade pitches rather than risking an offside HK and a spade thru. So unless declarer has 0 diamonds, I'm not beating this if he has 2 clubs. If he has 0 diamonds, I just have to not lead a diamond.

If declarer has 3 clubs, I can just cash my 2 tricks in the blacks (surely declarer does not have a spade void and partner 8 to the K).

So I'll cash the spade ace first, then play the club J. This way, even when declarer is cold, we don't concede unnecessary overs.

[inquiry]

wyman, on 2011-September-20, 20:11, said:

I'm surprised no one has addressed what partner's club 9 means. I'm still not sure when one would play it from 93.

The 9 of clubs is either from 93 or a singleton 9. The original post said "standard remaining count". what that means is if partner played the club THREE and east followed suit, you would KNOW partner started with A3 doubleton and you can give him a club ruff. What the 9 means he may, or maynot have the 3.

Your parnter does not have the spade king for a lot of reasons.

[wyman]

inquiry, on 2011-September-20, 21:59, said:

The 9 of clubs is either from 93 or a singleton 9. The original post said "standard remaining count". what that means is if partner played the club THREE and east followed suit, you would KNOW partner started with A3 doubleton and you can give him a club ruff. What the 9 means he may, or maynot have the 3.

Your parnter does not have the spade king for a lot of reasons.

Yeah I know partner doesn't have the SK. Just wondering if this is a clear count situation.

Also, perhaps for another thread, is there some sort of theoretical advantage to standard remaining count as opposed to UD?

[inquiry]

wyman, on 2011-September-21, 06:47, said:

Yeah I know partner doesn't have the SK. Just wondering if this is a clear count situation.

Also, perhaps for another thread, is there some sort of theoretical advantage to standard remaining count as opposed to UD?

A thread or three on signaling is a great idea. IF no one else picks up the gauntlet I will start a few of them later tonight.

It is interesting that the signaling was listed as UDCA and "standard present count." This is the same thing as UDCA with remaining count, so you don't need to rethink your signal methods.... For instance, if partner held

♣Q93 and played the Queen at trick one, standard present count would require you to play the NINE at the next trick, but so would UDCA count when playing remaining count instead of remaining count.

[semeai]

inquiry, on 2011-September-21, 15:11, said:

♣Q93 and played the Queen at trick one, standard present count would require you to play the NINE at the next trick, but so would UDCA count when playing remaining original count instead of remaining count.

FYP

Also, this isn't quite true if you ever signal count on your third play in a suit. Maybe the second was a discard and meant suit preference (or anything else other than count).

[phil_20686]

The reason you play current count with standard and original count with udca is to automatically unblock holdings like HTx and H9x when you had to play the honour on the first round. Its not a big issue but it crops up occasionally, and way more often that the times when it is right to hold onto the large pip.

Playing the DT just seems pretty natural to me, Obviously the danger is that dec might be void, 4-6-0-3 shape, and then declarer gets four pitches, but this just seems hugely unlikely. Assuming that is not the case, playing the ten of diaonds just always wins as far as I can see, except possibly in the case that declarer is xxx AQJxxx xx Ax and you could beat it by cashing 3 spades. I do not think this is at all impossible.

The other option is of course to play the ace of spades, this obviously wins when partner has the K, it also wins when declarer has 3 clubs. I.e. it essentially loses only to the case that declarer has one diamond and two clubs.

Finally, can we draw any inferences from the play? Personally I think the 4-6-1-2 layouts are disfavoured, as with KJTx AQJxxx x Ax he seems to have a better line of playing two diamonds pitching a club and then trying a spade to the J. Planning to ruff the 4th spade in dummy with the ten. This seems to win automatically if the QS is onside, and often even if it is off side we can get home losing two spades and a heart. Also, on this layout he might well ahve started the hearts with small to the ten, as if that holds he can revert to cashing diamonds and playing spades with spades as poor as KJxx.

In fact, I have to admit, I do not really understand the heart play, it seems like if delcarer has AQJxxx he should start with small to the ten as a defender might well duck with Kxx offside not seeing the danger, and thus he can cash the ace of hearts and play diamonds forcing a ruff with a winning heart, this seems like a good line most of the time. The only time declarer would not do this is if he was basically certain to have enough tricks if there is no ruffing. That could happen if declarer has 4 small diamonds, and maybe if he is a real expert we should assume that and lead a diamond for partner to ruff. But that is pretty deep.

[gnasher]

phil_20686, on 2011-September-21, 19:14, said:

Playing the DT just seems pretty natural to me, Obviously the danger is that dec might be void, 4-6-0-3 shape, and then declarer gets four pitches, but this just seems hugely unlikely. Assuming that is not the case, playing the ten of diaonds just always wins as far as I can see, except possibly in the case that declarer is xxx AQJxxx xx Ax and you could beat it by cashing 3 spades. I do not think this is at all impossible.

I think that's absolutely impossible. Apart from declarer's absurd choice of line, if partner had ♠K he would have given suit preference for it.

[Phil]

Great discussion, thanks all.

A few thoughts from me.

- I think its unlikely that partner has the ♠K unless declarer has a 7th heart. Partner is sort of defending in a vacuum here, but I don't see any reason for the 2-8 of hearts to mean anything but "I don't have the ♠A/K" when we are looking at a cashout position with dummy's diamonds.

- I thought there would be more talk about the lack of a ♥ unblock, but thats a discussion of its own.

- Singleton diamond seems indicated with the strange heart play.

- A void diamond seems very unlikely with what we know about declarer's hand. Is Kxxx AQxxxx void Axx really a game bid?

Declarer's hand was Kxxx AQ9xxx x A6. Partner didn't find the diamond shift, but its a speedball and its hard to process things like this under time pressure.

[Fluffy]

I'd liek to see a simulation to compare Kxxx AQxxxx x Ax to Kxxx AQxxxx - Axx, I think the latter will make game more often.