[blackshoe]

That's a pretty good chart.

[blackshoe]

I found this article interesting.

[hotShot]

blackshoe, on 2011-March-26, 19:37, said:

I found this article interesting.

I suggest you read this too.

[gwnn]

So the UN wrote about 4000 deaths while there are four or five articles and a book that cite higher numbers. What are the conclusions? What should we do? Why is it important?

[Aberlour10]

The political shock waves of this disaster reach Germany. The most conservative state in Germany >>> Baden-Württemberg has got the first "green" prime minister in the history of Federal Republic, elected on Sunday.

[blackshoe]

I don't know much about German politics, but my guess is that won't turn out well.

[P_Marlowe]

blackshoe, on 2011-March-28, 16:55, said:

I don't know much about German politics, but my guess is that won't turn out well.

Well - he belongs to the "Green" party, but from what I understood, he could also be
a member of the party, that ruled the country before.
He is certainly a conservative, "Conservative" also used to mean preserving the resources
of the nature.

And the member of the "Green" Party in Baden-Württemberg are known for their pragmatic
approach, they usually belong to the "Realos" - Real politians. (1)

Also one may or may not like it, but the first federal governemt with participation of
the Green party did a good job in modernizing Germany.

I dont want to discuss the law that tried to end the usage of "Nuclear Energy" in Germany,
this law was rolled back by the current government, ... and now they try to be faster than
the oulined timeschedule, there are others, e.g. like the Hartz Reforms and the Riester
Reform - and the boom 2006 in Germany had a lot to do with the work that was done between
1998 - 2006, when a coalition of Social Democrats and the Green Party governed in Germany.

This does not say it will be easy, but there is realistic hope, that the change will bring
something good, but sure - it will also make some things worse.

With kind regards
Marlowe

PS: (1) Under a Green State Department Germany did send soldiers out side to Afgahnistan,
and the Green Party was a strong "Peace Party", they have their roots in the peace movements
from the 1980.
I am not commenting on this specific decison, but in the end the majority backed the
mandate, although lots of peoble view the mandate critical.

[Gerben42]

More than two weeks after the accident, TEPCO admitted to a core melt. Note that I already told you this two weeks ago. More importantly, plutonium was found outside the plant, which was probably caused by the damaged fuel elements in the fuel pool in block 4. GRS information (reliable source) notes that the plutonium levels are not dangerous for health. Plutonium, although it has a large decay time, is most dangerous when it is incorporated into the body. The radiation can be shielded by a sheet of paper (as can be read here: http://en.wikipedia....tion_protection).

Some more inside information for you: Some AREVA employees were in Fukushima during the earthquake for non-destructive-testing (ultrasound) of several pipes. After the quake, they had noted that the emergency systems were activated as planned. They then proceeded to a hill just outside the plant and the tsunami hit. Apparently this damaged the protective wall in front of the plant, and still everything was running. Half an hour later, an aftershock with more than 8.0 hit and this one produced the 14m high tsunami that then did the damage that the plant could not recover from.

It was apparent that all possibilities to get power from outside the plant were gone as parts of the road were more than 1 meter elevated through huge cracks. Using vehicles was impossible, and the chance that any underground power lines did survive was about zero.

Although now new information is trickling in, the reason is that people are now performing surface measurements, not because things have changed at the plant. As I suggested before, they are changing the injection from salt water to fresh water because that won't attack the steel of the RPV and pipes. Getting rid of the contaminated water that is already inside the plant is of course a difficult business. But I doubt that it is worth the headlines that it is getting.

Radiation levels around the plant are still elevated at approximately 1 mSv / hour, which is about the natural yearly dose per hour. It will be some months until it will be healthy to live there again, but I must repeat that under the current information, a long-term evacuation of a large area will not be necessary.

As for the situation in Europe, it is important to learn from what happened in Japan. It is possible to reach the right conclusions or to reach the wrong ones. My personal opinion is that the complete removal of nuclear power plants while not turning into a CO2-machine can be managed by very few countries. If any, it could be Germany. Most of the rest of Europe cannot. For them I think a good decision would be to replace the old NPP by new ones. It seems Sweden for example is willing to go this way. Large industrial countries that can survive without nuclear power are rare birds indeed. If Germany goes this way, I wish them good luck, they will need it as it is an almost impossible task as the main challenges will be to get more power grid capacity and large energy storage facilities. Also note that the neighbours won't follow. They cannot even if they wanted to.

As for politics in Germany's south-west: The Green party in Baden-Württemberg gets a bonus problem. The government of Baden-Württemberg owns 45% of their utility and with that, 45% of several NPP. Shutting them down will be a major financial disaster, creating billion-euro size holes in their budget. Not shutting them down will be a major electoral disaster. Morton's fork at its best.

[blackshoe]

Morton's fork, indeed. Well, I wish them luck.

[Gerben42]

Additional information about what I am working on in Germany at the moment:

The ministery for environment, nature conservation and reactor safety has created, in addition to the European stress test for NPP, several criteria to decide which reactors can stay online and which cannot. These questions are related to safety issues that are mostly related to Fukushima like impact from the outside (earthquake, flooding, airplane crash as accident or as terrorist attack, and outside explosion). In addition, fuel pool accidents and long-term power outage are reviewed. It is certain that the bar will be put so high that some of the existing plants that were shut down will not be reactivated. My job is to work on the analyses and to create emergency planning for such scenarios. The decision which plants live and which don't is of course between the government and the utilities.

[Gerben42]

Apparently, the soil contamination has been measured in the vicinity of the plant. The conclusions are:

* Plutonium contamination is low enough to not be dangerous.
* The 20km zone will be habitable again next year. This includes using the land for growing crops and things like that.

Then there is the question about the contaminated water. The source of the highly contaminated water is the pressure suppression pool of block 2, which has a leak (see post #16). The water was piling up in the reactor building, and from there into the turbine building and now into the draining, thus leading towards the ocean. This water has very high dose levels so it will be hard to handle and it is not recommended to let it into the ocean.

The main challenge for the engineers at the moment however is too much water in the containment. Water is pumped into the containment and released as vapor into the environment at containment depressurization. This would be a dynamic equilibrium if not the buildings would act as a heat sink, causing some water to condense inside the containment. This leads to higher and higher water levels. The solution would be to set up a circulation so that no more containment depressurization is needed.

Another good idea that is followed is spraying the buildings with resin. This causes them to be sticky so aerosols will get away less and this lowers the release. Also it insulates the particles already deposited on surfaces.

[Fluffy]

This is a weird idea, can you explain why gerben?

why ain't the reactors built underground and in case of problems just buried under?

[Gerben42]

I am sure it is a cost factor Gonzalo. But what can be done and is done in many German reactors, is that some emergency power supply is in bunkers so that flooding won't get to them.

There are plans for underground mini nuclear reactors that don't need any personnel. Sounds like a good plan to me.

[blackshoe]

Shipstones. Just sayin'.

[Rain]

Bob Geller, the BBOer who's a seismologist in Japan recently sent me this. I thought you may be interested.

http://www.nature.co...ature10105.html

Edit - argh sorry nevermind. No longer free. Bob was saying eq are not predictable, though there are some signs that can be heeded, iirc.

Japanese version still free.
http://www.natureasi...ment_041411.php

Google translation:
http://translate.goo...en&hl=&ie=UTF-8

[xxhong]

Those experts really ignored the success of the prediction of HaiCheng earthquake.
IMHO, not all types of earthquakes are predictable, but some certain types of earthquakes are really predictable.
http://baike.baidu.com/view/33629.htm

Rain, on 2011-April-28, 14:39, said:

Bob Geller, the BBOer who's a seismologist in Japan recently sent me this. I thought you may be interested.

http://www.nature.co...ature10105.html

Edit - argh sorry nevermind. No longer free. Bob was saying eq are not predictable, though there are some signs that can be heeded, iirc.

Japanese version still free.
http://www.natureasi...ment_041411.php

Google translation:
http://translate.goo...en&hl=&ie=UTF-8

[y66]

From today's Spiegel Online

Quote

Angela Merkel's government has decided to phase out nuclear power by 2022, in a reversal of its previous policy. German commentators are split over the wisdom of the decision, with one newspaper comparing the move to the fall of the Berlin Wall and another saying it will harm future generations.

[mike777]

y66, on 2011-May-30, 19:46, said:

From today's Spiegel Online

This would be a really big deal if they do it.

11 years.

[Fluffy]

I guess Gerben ain't celebrating today, Merkel is getting crazy.

[blackshoe]

Seems to me the German government's current position is likely to do more harm than good to Germany, in the short run, at least.