[shyams]

Not sure if this is interesting to others, I found it so. IMPs (vs. robots if it matters). West leads ♦10 (robot leads, so not much to glean from it). You win dummy's Ace.

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Trick 1: ♦10 - ♦A - ♦4 - ♦6

Best line for 10 tricks?

Whenever you decide to start drawing trumps, East will follow with the ♠J and West will play the ♠7.

[smerriman]

All I can see is either drawing the second trump, making if they break or the club king is singleton, or giving up a trump by leading to the ten, making if the club finesse works. The first feels like it should add to more than 50%, though drawing trumps usually doesn't make a forum post..

[shyams]

I took the club finesse at trick 2 (low to South's ♣Q). When it won, I played the spade Ace and (in order to create an entry to dummy for a repeat finesse) a low spade.

Let's say trumps split 2-2 and East won with his now singleton ♠Q. The bot plays back a diamond --- I ruffed and entered dummy with the 3rd trump to finesse in clubs. (3-1 with King onside) and make 11 tricks. If the bot had instead switched to hearts, I still am making the contract.

It's IMPs so the overtrick does not matter but, to me, my chosen line felt better.

I still am not sure if it was...

[mikeh]

Late to the thread. I was holding off because sometimes my posting stops the discussion

Here is how I’d approach it at the table

We have two heart losers. If spades break 2-2 we are cold, but that’s slightly against the odds.

If spades don’t break, we need to bring home the club suit with no loser. Playing for a stiff king is not very attractive.

The club hook is 50%. The only way playing on clubs loses is if LHO has Kxx(x) or a void. Both are far less than 50% combined. Or a stiff king and RHO works it out.

Therefore we maximize our chances by hooking the club at trick two. Which club to lead? We’re not likely to play clubs twice before tackling trump. Plus, running the 10 will pretty much tell LHO that we hold AQJx so it’s easy for him to give a ruff if he holds Kxx and he probably has a heart entry, leading to being set two even with 2-2 trump. It’s therefore best to lead a club to the queen. If that loses, they may not take a ruff even if they have one (in either defending hand ).

So low to the club Queen. If it loses, and they don’t get a ruff, you need trump breaking. But you need trump breaking anyway, with the club King offside, unless it’s stiff which is very unlikely. The extra risk of club ruffs is more than offset by you coming chances in both black suits.

Btw, I think this line is clearly best regardless of the form of scoring. It’s a fallacy to think that one should play for maximum tricks simply because it’s mps. When you’re in a borderline contract, your first priority is to make the contract. There are exceptions….if you’re in the wrong contract you may need to take risks….say you’re in 3N with a low percentage line for 10 tricks and you can see that most pairs will be in a cold 4 M, then you do play all out. That’s not this hand.