Run of bad hands all night. Bad hands
#1
Posted 2023-January-20, 21:49
In one night, and its not so great, all night if one side continually gets the best cards. Also have seen hands with 8 or 9 of one suit more than might likely happen in real play. It seems whomever wrote the program, somehow might get it more competitive on both sides of the table. I don't mind losing, just opening count more than once a night would be nice.
#2
Posted 2023-January-20, 22:30
If you're not experiencing it in 'real bridge', then you're clearly not dealing the hands properly. (This was a very well known phenomena when bridge deals used to be hand-dealt, which resulted in a lot of bias - when switching, people thought the automatic dealing was at fault, when it was the opposite).
#3
Posted 2023-January-21, 03:00
#4
Posted 2023-January-21, 03:47
johnu, on 2023-January-21, 03:00, said:
Clockwise or counterclockwise?
#5
Posted 2023-January-21, 09:20
#7
Posted 2023-January-21, 15:27
#8
Posted 2023-January-21, 15:44
dottied, on 2023-January-21, 15:27, said:
You know your hand records are publicly available online right?
https://www.bridgebase.com/myhands/
So if, for example, someone checked your last month of records, and found that you had played 301 boards, and:
- averaged 9.87 points per hand - very close to the expected 10
- declared 85 times (28.2% - considerably more than a quarter, despite two passouts)
Or if they looked at the month before that, where you played 789 hands:
- averaging 9.97 points
- declaring on 192 occasions (24.3%)
or the month before that, where you played another 531 boards, with an above-average 10.07 points, and declared 23.55% of the time..
Well, if anyone actually spent time doing that, your statements would look a bit silly
#9
Posted 2023-January-21, 15:58
#10
Posted 2023-January-21, 15:59
Perhaps you think you're getting a lot of 10 and 11 point hands, and never get to open the bidding? The theoretical probability you get at least 12 HCP is 34.82%. Over those three months, you've had at least 12 HCP on 375 of those 1074 deals, 34.9%. So it's not that.
Perhaps you don't get strong hands - say, >= 18 HCP? The theoretical probability is 4.09%. You've had >= 18 points on 46/1074 deals = 4.28%.
Nope, I'm clearly missing something.
#11
Posted 2023-January-21, 16:12
dottied, on 2023-January-21, 15:58, said:
I can take people making unlikely and unsubstantiated claims, but when confuted by fact I do expect them to apologize rather than insist.
Probably just old fashioned.
#12
Posted 2023-January-24, 20:01
APAD: Always Pass as Dealer.
And yes, of course I know it's confirmation bias. Leave me my little conceits.
#13
Posted 2023-January-28, 10:36
pescetom, on 2023-January-21, 16:12, said:
Probably just old fashioned.
We've been in a post-fact, post-science era for much of the past decade. Apologies are so 20th century.
#14
Posted 2023-January-28, 13:40
Forums has recently been promoted and new contributors are joining the site. This was obviously a question from a person who is not familiar with how hands are generated on BBO. Sarcasm is not needed,
Kindness goes a long way, I bet the OP won't be back.
(still learning)
#15
Posted 2023-January-28, 14:09
jillybean, on 2023-January-28, 13:40, said:
Forums has recently been promoted and new contributors are joining the site. This was obviously a question from a person who is not familiar with how hands are generated on BBO. Sarcasm is not needed,
Kindness goes a long way, I bet the OP won't be back.
I re-read the thread and think you are right to some extent.
The guy who caught and deserved real criticism was not the OP and did not seem interested in what had been said, even though it confuted him.
OP did not make any comment and probably deserved better treatment, at least a welcome to the forum.
Partly our fault, but BBO run the thing and could have chipped in too.
#16
Posted 2023-January-30, 05:15
Clustering is a feature of randomness and if someone tries to create a random sequence themself and it is compared to a genuine random sequence, it is possible to tell which is which because the human generated random sequence will have far less clustering.
I have tried in the past analysing my average HCP and frequency of declaring/defending and over a large number of sessions, my average HCP is very close to 10 but there are clusters of below average HCP sessions, which at the time makes it look like a bias in the dealing. It is only my defending frequency that is well in excess of what would be expected and I am still working on why that is the case.
#17
Posted 2023-February-08, 17:37
In the good old days I would occasionally have to resort to another pack of cards
#19
Posted 2023-February-13, 01:54
croquetfan, on 2023-February-13, 00:27, said:
Now we know who to blame.