BBO Discussion Forums: Straightforward or Esoteric? - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Straightforward or Esoteric? How would you play this one?

#1 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 16,522
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2021-October-20, 10:13

You get lucky with a club lead. You win the ace, discarding the diamond queen, and lead a heart on which east plays the 6. Now what? Do you play straightforward or try to cater to more distribution because of your hand?

Club 5 lead


Spoiler

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
0

#2 User is offline   LBengtsson 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 506
  • Joined: 2017-August-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-October-20, 12:45

I would have played it the same as you. no entries to dummy after first trick. trump suit poor missing intermediate cards. you had lucky lead and made best of situation.
0

#3 User is offline   sfi 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,167
  • Joined: 2009-May-18
  • Location:Oz

Posted 2021-October-20, 15:21

There's a pretty good principle that you should try and set up your side suit first on hands like these. Obviously it's not true in all cases, but it should be your first inclination. Here there is no reason not to go with that, and I would have taken your line. Sometimes clean living pays off.
0

#4 User is offline   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,328
  • Joined: 2008-September-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-October-20, 16:57

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-October-20, 10:13, said:

Do you play straightforward or try to cater to more distribution because of your hand?


I probably lack imagination, but I can't think of any other line of play that is as good as the one you suggested.
0

#5 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 16,522
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2021-October-20, 18:08

View Postjohnu, on 2021-October-20, 16:57, said:

I probably lack imagination, but I can't think of any other line of play that is as good as the one you suggested.

We’ll, you could play for Ax of spades onside or you could play for Kx of hearts offside. In both cases you would want to play on spades at trick two.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
0

#6 User is offline   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,328
  • Joined: 2008-September-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-October-21, 02:44

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-October-20, 18:08, said:

We'll, you could play for Ax of spades onside or you could play for Kx of hearts offside. In both cases you would want to play on spades at trick two.


A combination of a below average play and one very below average play doesn't sound like it would be successful.

Assuming 3-2 splits in the majors for simplicity, a back of envelope calculation is:
______________________________________________________________________________

Ax onside - 50% doubleton onside and 40% chance ace is in doubleton = 20%

or

Kx of hearts in either hand - (100 - 20)% x 40% king is in doubleton = 32%

Total 20% + 32% = 52%

_______________________________________________________________________________

Still assuming both majors are 3-2,

Taking immediate heart finesse

50% finesse is successful. Then A and a heart ruff. Can't usually lose more than heart overruff and 2 trumps. If one defender has 2 hearts and 4 trumps, this limits defenders to an overruff and 2 trumps.

50% finesse loses. You only go down if a defender has 2 trumps and 2 hearts (without minor suit ruffs). Very roughly, this is about ~25%. So 50% x (100 - 25)% ~= 35%

Total = 50% + 35% = 85%.
0

#7 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 16,522
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2021-October-21, 17:23

View Postjohnu, on 2021-October-21, 02:44, said:

A combination of a below average play and one very below average play doesn't sound like it would be successful.

Assuming 3-2 splits in the majors for simplicity, a back of envelope calculation is:
______________________________________________________________________________

Ax onside - 50% doubleton onside and 40% chance ace is in doubleton = 20%

or

Kx of hearts in either hand - (100 - 20)% x 40% king is in doubleton = 32%

Total 20% + 32% = 52%

Thanks for the math-mories!
_______________________________________________________________________________

Still assuming both majors are 3-2,

Taking immediate heart finesse

50% finesse is successful. Then A and a heart ruff. Can't usually lose more than heart overruff and 2 trumps. If one defender has 2 hearts and 4 trumps, this limits defenders to an overruff and 2 trumps.

50% finesse loses. You only go down if a defender has 2 trumps and 2 hearts (without minor suit ruffs). Very roughly, this is about ~25%. So 50% x (100 - 25)% ~= 35%

Total = 50% + 35% = 85%.

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
0

Share this topic:


Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users