BBO Discussion Forums: Seems obvious but is it - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2

Seems obvious but is it

#1 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,250
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted 2021-September-09, 02:03

This hand proved extremely expensive in a meaningless bot session

I spent ages thinking about my bid and ended up passing, not doubling or bidding 5D

Can any smart people explain where I went wrong

I think I was dazzled by the lack of randomness of the hand (even more so when you look at the scores)

It looks so obvious and in a sense was but ....





0

#2 User is offline   pilowsky 

  • pilowsky
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,433
  • Joined: 2019-October-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia
  • Interests:Writing, Learning, History, Politics

Posted 2021-September-09, 02:16

If it's a meaningless bot session I might bid the unusual 4NT and probably end up in a 4/3 Club fit.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
0

#3 User is online   AL78 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 942
  • Joined: 2019-October-13

Posted 2021-September-09, 03:00

I'd probably bid 5. It is not in the realms of fantasy that partner could be covering two of your four losers given they likely hold no spade wastage, and passing feels like a way to gift wrap the board to the opponents with a bouquet of flowers. There is risk in bidding, but passing is risky as well.
1

#4 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,250
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted 2021-September-09, 03:52

View PostAL78, on 2021-September-09, 03:00, said:

I'd probably bid 5. It is not in the realms of fantasy that partner could be covering two of your four losers given they likely hold no spade wastage, and passing feels like a way to gift wrap the board to the opponents with a bouquet of flowers. There is risk in bidding, but passing is risky as well.


Who knows how my brain was(or was not) functioning at the time. Its a curious hand since you can get 4S doubled down one but its hard to defeat 5 or 6 diamonds seemingly.

Somehow I rationalised a pass. Didn't want to risk a double and wasn't entirely confident of 5D
0

#5 User is offline   LBengtsson 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 475
  • Joined: 2017-August-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-September-09, 03:54

I prefer 5 to 4NT as solid top four honour suit and 6-4m shape. 4 bid sound either weak or the law as responder has not gone thru 2NT Ogust...
0

#6 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,250
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted 2021-September-09, 04:00

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-September-09, 02:16, said:

If it's a meaningless bot session I might bid the unusual 4NT and probably end up in a 4/3 Club fit.


Clubs or diamonds are an excellent outcome. In fact clubs probably better which nobody found
I had forgotten about the unusual 4NT :)
0

#7 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,250
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted 2021-September-09, 04:02

I would be grateful on any advice how to evaluate that though, including how to rule out options from partner's pass

I have run one of my equally meaningless sims and pass or double seem excellent bids
0

#8 User is offline   sfi 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,140
  • Joined: 2009-May-18
  • Location:Oz

Posted 2021-September-09, 04:49

I've got a good hand with good shape and good diamonds, so it looks right to bid them. Even if partner has good support for clubs, say four clubs and one diamond, it still may be right to play in diamonds. Another thought is that good things might happen if I bid and they're not likely to if I pass, so I'll bid. 5D it is.
0

#9 User is offline   mw64ahw 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 297
  • Joined: 2021-February-13
  • Gender:Not Telling
  • Interests:Bidding & play optimisation via simulation.

Posted 2021-September-09, 06:07

With 9.5 playing tricks following two pre-empts I would hope partner has something to offer. Unusual 4NT or 5, would both work for me with the self-sustaining suit providing certainty.
0

#10 User is online   hrothgar 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 15,166
  • Joined: 2003-February-13
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Natick, MA
  • Interests:Travel
    Cooking
    Brewing
    Hiking

Posted 2021-September-09, 06:48

I don't know how to interpret the phrase "lack of randomness"

I don't think that there is a clear cut answer here

Given the differences in suit quality, I think that I prefer 5 to 4NT

(If nothing else, it's going to be a lot more difficult for them to double you if the 4!S bidder has values)
Alderaan delenda est
0

#11 User is online   AL78 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 942
  • Joined: 2019-October-13

Posted 2021-September-09, 07:37

View Postthepossum, on 2021-September-09, 04:02, said:

I would be grateful on any advice how to evaluate that though, including how to rule out options from partner's pass


2 is weak, and 4 is almost certainly pre-emptively bidding to the level of the fit given your strength.

They are likely to have a 10 card fit and partner is unlikely to hold any wasted values in spades. This means wherever partner's values are (if any), they will be in hearts or clubs (you hold all the diamond honors), in other words complementing your honor cards. It is a 30 point pack situation.

Give opener 7-8 HCP, combined with your 18 count gives 25-26 HCP between you and opener. That leaves around 14-15 HCP between the other two hands. Give partner 6-8 of those in hearts and clubs. How many ways can you give partner a couple of club/heart honor cards and not have play for 5, bearing in mind you just need him to cover two of your four losers? The answer to this question will tell you that bidding 5 is a decent shot.

In in the unusual case of partner being completely broke, you might not be defeating 4 on a handful of possible layouts.

I don't like the idea of bidding 4NT. The disparity between the minors is too large, and if partner has more clubs than diamonds, you may still want to play in diamonds. There is one danger if partner has long clubs to the queen and short diamonds, if you are in 5 missing the club ace, the defence will go club to the ace, club ruff, cash spade winner, down one, when 5 makes, but that would be unlucky.
0

#12 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 16,401
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2021-September-09, 07:43

This is why opponents preempt. Take your best guess and move on,

I bid 5D. With 3-3 minors partner will bid 5C so let’s avoid that fiasco.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
1

#13 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,039
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2021-September-09, 09:44

The possum 'This hand proved extremely expensive in a meaningless bot session. I spent ages thinking about my bid and ended up passing, not doubling or bidding 5DCan any smart people explain where I went wrong. I think I was dazzled by the lack of randomness of the hand (even more so when you look at the scores) It looks so obvious and in a sense was but ....'
I rank ....
1, Double = T/O. 4 tricks might be easier than 11. Partner can show a good suit or 2 suits (4N)..
2. 5 = NAT.
3. Pass = NAT. Timid with 3.5 quick tricks and a good suit.
4. 4N = UNT. But you are likely to reach a 4-3 fit..

0

#14 User is offline   Gilithin 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 277
  • Joined: 2014-November-13
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-September-09, 13:47

Do people really play UNT here? I thought standard is for 4NT to be 2 places and for 4NT followed by 5 over 5 to be natural with slam interest. I don't think standard is actually best (it's better for example if the direct 5 is stronger than going via 4NT) but if you play 4NT as unusual, what are doing with +minor 2-suiters? The cheapest bid surely has to be available for more than one single hand type here.
1

#15 User is offline   smerriman 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,310
  • Joined: 2014-March-15
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-September-09, 14:20

View PostGilithin, on 2021-September-09, 13:47, said:

Do people really play UNT here? I thought standard is for 4NT to be 2 places

This is really a moot point, as whatever terminology you use to describe 4NT, you're still asking partner to pick a minor.
0

#16 User is online   DavidKok 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 696
  • Joined: 2020-March-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Netherlands

Posted 2021-September-09, 15:36

View PostGilithin, on 2021-September-09, 13:47, said:

Do people really play UNT here? I thought standard is for 4NT to be 2 places and for 4NT followed by 5 over 5 to be natural with slam interest. I don't think standard is actually best (it's better for example if the direct 5 is stronger than going via 4NT) but if you play 4NT as unusual, what are doing with +minor 2-suiters? The cheapest bid surely has to be available for more than one single hand type here.
Some people would double with + and pull 5, but I agree your description is most common.
0

#17 User is offline   Gilithin 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 277
  • Joined: 2014-November-13
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2021-September-09, 15:52

View Postsmerriman, on 2021-September-09, 14:20, said:

This is really a moot point

You might find that opponents and TDs do not necessarily agree with you on that.
0

#18 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,250
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted 2021-September-09, 17:04

Here are the hands. As I said the obvious diamond bid didn't often go wrong and the attempt at bringing down 4S went wrong due to me missing an obvious lead (I think). Partner led to my diamonds. I cashed the Ace of hearts and for some reason led something back other than a Club :(

So it was expensive, but fortunately in a meaningless hand




0

#19 User is offline   thepossum 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,250
  • Joined: 2018-July-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia

Posted 2021-September-09, 17:14

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-September-09, 06:48, said:

I don't know how to interpret the phrase "lack of randomness"



Sometimes it feels that many of the hands are carefully crafted/engineered :)
0

#20 User is offline   pilowsky 

  • pilowsky
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,433
  • Joined: 2019-October-04
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Australia
  • Interests:Writing, Learning, History, Politics

Posted 2021-September-09, 18:49

View Postthepossum, on 2021-September-09, 17:14, said:

Sometimes it feels that many of the hands are carefully crafted/engineered :)


Only the ones where I fail to make the contract and others succeed - which is more than half the time.
So - not random in the sense that others are more skilful than me.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
0

Share this topic:


  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2


Fast Reply

  

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users