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What can go wrong?

#1 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 11:29

I played some house bridge at the weekend and this hand made me think. A good exercise in safety play or not? I will post all the hand later.



the Q was led by west. how would you play the hand? (I was defender - east. declarer is a friend, good player but not expert.)
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#2 User is offline   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 11:54

Spoiler

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#3 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 12:10

Ace and low to the 9 isn’t safe because of the diamond force on dummy. I would take an immediate finesse of the spade jack as this I believe only loses to 10xxx with lho. 5-0 breaks discounted.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter. / "I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky
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#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 14:26

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-July-26, 12:10, said:

Ace and low to the 9 isn’t safe because of the diamond force on dummy. I would take an immediate finesse of the spade jack as this I believe only loses to 10xxx with lho. 5-0 breaks discounted.


is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.
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#5 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 14:44

View PostCyberyeti, on 2021-July-26, 14:26, said:

is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.


Probably not.

I'm no mathematician but my quick calculations are that 1/2 of the time when the Q is singleton it will be with east, and that would be 2 1/2 percent of the time. Good, but I doubt as good.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter. / "I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky
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#6 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 15:04


L Bengtsson 'I played some house bridge at the weekend and this hand made me think. A good exercise in safety play or not? I will post all the hand later. The Q was led by west. How would you play the hand? (I was defender - east. declarer is a friend, good player but not expert.)
=====================
CyberYeti 'Is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.'
+++++++++++++++++++++
Good problem, L Bengtsson :)
I like CyberYeti's line: A. A. A. 5 towards dummy's knave.

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#7 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-July-26, 15:21

David found that line before I did
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#8 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-July-28, 05:02

View PostWinstonm, on 2021-July-26, 12:10, said:

Ace and low to the 9 isn’t safe because of the diamond force on dummy. I would take an immediate finesse of the spade jack as this I believe only loses to 10xxx with lho. 5-0 breaks discounted.


interesting line. I did not consider this
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#9 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-July-28, 05:30

View Postnige1, on 2021-July-26, 15:04, said:


L Bengtsson 'I played some house bridge at the weekend and this hand made me think. A good exercise in safety play or not? I will post all the hand later. The Q was led by west. How would you play the hand? (I was defender - east. declarer is a friend, good player but not expert.)
=====================
CyberYeti 'Is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.'
+++++++++++++++++++++
Good problem, L Bengtsson :)
I like CyberYeti's line: A. A. A. 5 towards dummy's knave.



thats the line, like DavidKok, also I would have played but here is the whole hand



that line would have lost :( east ruffing next trick with 10

my friend (good player but but not expert) playing south took first trick with A quickly and then sat for a couple of minutes before tackling the suit which he did by playing k first, then low to dummy capturing wests queen and ending with 13 tricks.

he asked us after hand was over was that the best way to play suit? and we all said 'no' but laughed that if we done it the expert way we all would have gone down. he then said that 3-2 break in is 68% and that is why he played it his way and made contract with overtrick! I laughed again as I could see how he is thinking. why look for obscure safety play when most of the time the contract will be made by natural play?

and yes, the expert play is not lucky to find split of 5-1 and east with last outstanding trump but if we were playing match points pairs would we have gone for our line or his line? Thinking too much about hand can be bad for bridge health...
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#10 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-July-28, 08:04

View PostLBengtsson, on 2021-July-28, 05:30, said:

thats the line, like DavidKok, also I would have played but here is the whole hand



that line would have lost :( east ruffing next trick with 10

my friend (good player but but not expert) playing south took first trick with A quickly and then sat for a couple of minutes before tackling the suit which he did by playing k first, then low to dummy capturing wests queen and ending with 13 tricks.

he asked us after hand was over was that the best way to play suit? and we all said 'no' but laughed that if we done it the expert way we all would have gone down. he then said that 3-2 break in is 68% and that is why he played it his way and made contract with overtrick! I laughed again as I could see how he is thinking. why look for obscure safety play when most of the time the contract will be made by natural play?

and yes, the expert play is not lucky to find split of 5-1 and east with last outstanding trump but if we were playing match points pairs would we have gone for our line or his line? Thinking too much about hand can be bad for bridge health...


Also an unlucky guess - after the ace of spades, the cross to hand could have been in clubs. 😖
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter. / "I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky
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