[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2020-March-16, 12:44, said:

Yes, that is said. But practically speaking, does it actually mean anything? Investors try to foresee what will happen. Sure, who doesn't? The huge declines of the last couple of weeks came from unexpected realities. That happens. So investors try to accurately predict, the better ones are pretty good at it in normal times, sometimes, such as when a pandemic hits, they do not foresee it and things get crazy. That makes sense. But "discount ahead of realities"? Seems lie that can mean whatever one wishes it to mean at the moment.

I again acknowledge very limited understanding of markets, but the djia is ow a little below 21,000. How should I understand that in terms discounting ahead of realities, in the practical sense of whether I should buy or sell? Perhaps I should be doing one or the other, but beats me as to which.

I just sit back (well, usually) and let it go where it goes. Probably not best, but you can't beat it for easy. We aren't speaking of enormous sums here.

You are so right. At the next technical support level - which may not be reached or may be breached, who knows - that will be a 40% decline from the high point. History shows that the Great Recession had a 50% decline while the 1942 bear market suffered a 60% decline. So, who knows. Each event is unique. Better to hope there are enough of us who survive the virus for the DOW to even matter.

[kenberg]

Winstonm, on 2020-March-16, 14:54, said:

Technically speaking (meaning via charts of past events), the next support level for the DOW is all the way down at around 17,900. There likely will be huge up and down swings but the trend stays down, down, down.

However, with great tragedy comes great opportunity. Those in cash right now have a great chance of making a huge amount down the road.

Yes, or losing a huge amount. I see that the close today is even worse than after the opening plunge. I think I will just sit on it and hope that eventually it all finds its way back. That would be a fine result as far as I am concerned. Actually I would be content enough if the current closing became the new normal for a while.

[thepossum]

Following my confident counter-factual about investing if I had had cash a week ago to buy bargains I would have lost somewhere between 10-15%. However I am encouraged to learn that some funds have been increasing their exposure to markets and taking advantage of lower asset prices

[Winstonm]

The DOW has blown straight through prospective bottom points, so the next stop on this elevator ride down is around 17,800 to 18,000. After that, it gets truly ugly: next support would be 15,900.

[kenberg]

This thread has been dozing, I thought I would say a few things. I have neither bought nor sold anything (Stocks. bonds etc), I have bought food during the last four months.
If a person doesn't know anything, it is very useful for him to know that he doesn't know anything. I am positive I do ot understand the stock market.
No doubt there are people who sold heavily when the Doe was at 27K, stayed out until it dropped below 18K, bought back in and made a bundle.
I am not one of them.

What I really want is for the country to survive this stress. If that happens, I will be fine. Others, some others, will be richer, maybe much richer. Others, some others, will be poorer. But if the country copes with all of this stuff, I will be fine. And if not, if the country goes belly-up, we are all up a creek. Or almost all.

My thinking, from as far back as I can recall, is that having enough money is extremely important and having a lot more than enough is no big deal at all.

So I hope we, collectively, cope.

Not all that enlightening a post, but I am not an oracle.

[pilowsky]

Just as well Ken, look what happened to Cassandra!

[Chas_P]

kenberg, on 2020-May-28, 15:41, said:

Not all that enlightening a post, but I am not an oracle.

Not an oracle maybe, but always enlightening. I may not always agree with you but I do always enjoy your views. Very professorial, well thought-out. Biden should pick you for a running mate. I might vote for him you.

[thepossum]

thepossum, on 2020-March-16, 20:04, said:

Following my confident counter-factual about investing if I had had cash a week ago to buy bargains I would have lost somewhere between 10-15%. However I am encouraged to learn that some funds have been increasing their exposure to markets and taking advantage of lower asset prices

Well I can't claim any expertise or knowledge but if I'd invested when I said I would have been in the black at the moment. And if people had followed my recommendations in the week after my post they would have done much better than me. For the moment

[thepossum]

Deleted since image doesn't show but hope everyone had some faith against the forces of evil and did ok

EDIT(looking at the graph it wasn't that volatile)

S&P 500 +43% since the thread was posted - sadly where I invest wasn't that quite as spectacular (20%) but has regained 1 years loss PS I dont risk bitcoin, the time to invest in that was 5-10 years ago

I know many of us lost a year of our savings - or it took a year to get it back but lets never give in to those who think savings, investments, businesses etc are bad things

And despite all the rubbish talked by certain political tendencies much of that investment is by small savers who believe in working and saving

And its not all based on rubbish. Most of us believe in value -business, initiative, .employment, etc etc

All these backward types constantly trying to destroy everything and live off other people who they constantly insult

There appear to be a couple of major tendencies in this world. Those who invest in others and those who invest in themselves

Its actually disgusting and disgraceful that most of those political tendencies (that I used to associated with - still do in terms of true ideals) have been reduced to only looking after their own patch and attacking those who invest in others. You know those characters - they dont take risks, they dont invest in others but expect everyone else to invest in them. Those characters

But of course, if you do invest in others (and your enterprise that employs others) you need to make sure that there is no exploitation dont you

There are many people around the world crying out for a little income/capital to stay alive/float. Lets hope there arent many greedy selfish people anywhere eh.

But from what I see the worst of the worst in terms of elite attitudes/expectations are still running the show

Important PS. When I talk about investing in themelsves I dont mean that at the individual investment/business investment (education/work/etc). I am talking about those who argue that others should invest in them or their sector

I keep looking for some metric for inequality. One I have been considering recently is vacations and who pays for them

[thepossum]

How is everyone going?

[kenberg]

thepossum, on 2021-August-19, 02:44, said:

How is everyone going?

My financial life is boring. I like it that way. I am not the type to invest in crypto-currency. Or even the type to try to understand just how it works. I worry a bit about the market, I think nothing just keeps going up. But I will not be selling off and burying the money in my garden so there is no point in coming around with a shovel. I can say we try to make good use of our money, but of course that means different things to different people. That's probably about it.

[awm]

I follow the strategy of a famous Hong Kong real estate developer: “Buy low, never sell” so of course I haven’t sold any stocks! While there is nothing particularly clever about my investing strategy, major US indices (Nasdaq, S&P) are up almost 30% year over year so I’m doing quite well. It also helps that my employer’s stock has almost doubled (we get some equity grants).

[kenberg]

A WaPo headline

White House tells U.S. agencies to get ready for first government shutdown of pandemic

And so, today,the Dow gained 500 points.

I don't think that I even want to think in a way that would allow me to understand this.

Added: Ah yes, something to do with the Federal Reserve.

[Chas_P]

Pfizer offers a nice yield (3.55%). Appreciation probably coming.

[y66]

Good discussion here of the Evergrande crisis by Adam Tooze. Longish.

[y66]

kenberg, on 2021-September-23, 15:39, said:

A WaPo headline

White House tells U.S. agencies to get ready for first government shutdown of pandemic

And so, today,the Dow gained 500 points.

I don't think that I even want to think in a way that would allow me to understand this.

Added: Ah yes, something to do with the Federal Reserve.

There's always an explanation. On Monday, uncertainty about what the Fed was going to say today was cited as one factor for Monday's big selloff.

[thepossum]

I was fascinated when I also looked at the likely panic on Wall Street due to GFC3 starting in China

What new "thing" have they constructed that gives massive returns if China collapses

Maybe China is too big to fail and can be bailed out by everyone else

[thepossum]

The media seem to trying to get us to panic and have another market crash.
Despite the scary headlines there isn't much evidence of it yet