[thepossum]

I have some very serious concerns about the way data is used or abused by people who place excessive priority on restricting all risk over the broader aspects of people's lives. There was and still is (for want of better word) a background of risk for so many things under what most people in the world would prefer a form of freedom. It is not legitimate to use a legitimiate lockdown (to control case numbers in a public health emergency) and the case numbers of Covid (or everyting else for that matter) under extreme lockdown as a basis for losing sight of and arguing against people's freedomas the preferred and essential state of affairs. Please do not distort data or graphs or anything in order to back up an extreme (but necessary) repressive set of measures. That way leads to a dangerous world. You could remove amost all risk of many things through ridiculously repressive measures. But I think it is a very questionnable position to take. Many people are also taking excessively simplisitc univariate crude numbers and models to argue any manner of dodgy positions. I do understand where some who make those arguments come from professionally and I respect that at a professional and ethical level. But come on people. We have to look at the full picture of every outcome variable from any measures. And also I would hope have some common philosophical position that controlling other's lives is an extreme measure to be avoided as much as possible. If we dont have that shared position to start with then we have problems. Maybe start superposing some graphs of other indicators, overlaid on the same with the same timings

I have been very concerned (as outlines in other discussions) about the tendency for people to abuse authority and misrerpesent data/research for countless agendas, for some areas of the media to apparently under some kind of questionnable control.

The subtitle for this thread is about being doomed to repeat history if we forget it. There are many other stakes we are ignoring and are doomed to repeat if we allow those tendencies to take over and restrict alternative views or at least be prepared to accept challenge. I have seen all manner of tactics used and inuslts thrown to try and tar all people to question any measures with the same brush. That in itself deserves analysis annd question. When research is misused and misrepresented, when professional people themselevs do it, when people abuse/misuse their authority, when people claim expertise they dont have, when political interests get in the way of tru discussion and debate. I have seen many disgraceful abuses of research findings by people of many levels of knowledge/claimed expertise (none to expert believe it or not), some with huge influence well beyond the level of ability to report things clearly and fairly. We all need to be eternally vigilant. I am sorry

PS I know I shouldnt really say this. But prior to Covid some cities/states in Australia decided to essentially close down their entertainment industries for health reasons when others chose to keep them open and explore other measures. And as an ex-UK resident if they had a constitution similar to the USA the second (of many) amendment would involve the right to sit in a pub with a nice glass of ale

[shyams]

pilowsky, on 2020-July-24, 17:48, said:

Either you have not been following current affairs, or you are under the influence of alcohol and your cognitive abilities are mildly impaired.

Either you have not had the intellectual maturity to debate properly, or you are a troll who likes to interject ad hominem attacks just for kicks.

That (probably informative) post of yours would not have suffered if the first line was skipped or replaced by a neutral observation.

[johnu]

pilowsky, on 2020-July-24, 17:48, said:

Either you have not been following current affairs, or you are under the influence of alcohol and your cognitive abilities are mildly impaired.
The graph clearly shows that:

• As soon as restrictions are lifted, caseload increases.
• The incubation period is 2 weeks.
• Alcohol causes a dose-related disinhibition of all function.
• It's a bad idea.
• More people will die,
• What is hard to decide?

Have you questioned your own cognitive abilities?

In your own bullet point, you say the incubation period is 2 weeks. Assuming the graph is accurate, it shows that cases went down for 2 days after the pubs opened, and then went back up to pre-pub opening levels and then goes up slightly.

You should not expect to see case numbers go up due to pub openings for about 2 weeks afterwards. So something else may have been going on to reverse the steady decline in case numbers. Maybe more tests being done or some other activities opening up about 2 weeks earlier that caused an increase in infections.

That being said, I agree that opening up pubs is a bad idea if you want to keep new infections low. Japan's health messaging on the coronavirus pandemic has been the 3 C's, avoid Closed spaces, Crowded places, Close contact settings. Pubs and most restaurants check all 3 C's. And if you are drinking or eating, you aren't wearing your mask. An inordinate number of cases in Japan originated in nightclubs and other large gatherings.

[Cyberyeti]

johnu, on 2020-July-25, 02:22, said:

Have you questioned your own cognitive abilities?

In your own bullet point, you say the incubation period is 2 weeks. Assuming the graph is accurate, it shows that cases went down for 2 days after the pubs opened, and then went back up to pre-pub opening levels and then goes up slightly.

You should not expect to see case numbers go up due to pub openings for about 2 weeks afterwards. So something else may have been going on to reverse the steady decline in case numbers. Maybe more tests being done or some other activities opening up about 2 weeks earlier that caused an increase in infections.

That being said, I agree that opening up pubs is a bad idea if you want to keep new infections low. Japan's health messaging on the coronavirus pandemic has been the 3 C's, avoid Closed spaces, Crowded places, Close contact settings. Pubs and most restaurants check all 3 C's. And if you are drinking or eating, you aren't wearing your mask. An inordinate number of cases in Japan originated in nightclubs and other large gatherings.

Nightclubs appear to be a major issue, Catalonia is considering closing theirs again. That said the kind of people who would catch it in a nightclub would be some of the least at risk of serious illness providing they're sensible about not passing it on and don't live with older relatives.

We don't have enough data on the pub opening yet, but the pubs round here I believe are doing it pretty responsibly, although I've not even been to one to drink outside.

[FelicityR]

johnu, on 2020-July-25, 02:22, said:

That being said, I agree that opening up pubs is a bad idea if you want to keep new infections low. Japan's health messaging on the coronavirus pandemic has been the 3 C's, avoid Closed spaces, Crowded places, Close contact settings. Pubs and most restaurants check all 3 C's. And if you are drinking or eating, you aren't wearing your mask. An inordinate number of cases in Japan originated in nightclubs and other large gatherings.

Here in the UK there are strict rules for pubs and restaurants - nightclubs are still closed as I write - and most have been following procedure. (Safety screens, app ordering, being seated at one table for the duration, no socialising within the pub, hand sanitation stations, disinfecting tables after every customer, etc.) The problem is that whilst the owners and managers of these establishments are making a sterling effort to apply safety guidelines and keep their businesses running with greatly-reduced capacities, some of the people visiting them are straying from social distancing guidelines, etc.

It is summer in the UK and many people can socialise - drink and eat - al fresco, and indoor establishments can have their windows open and have good ventilation. However, their is a train of thought that any second coronavirus wave will happen in the UK during the winter months when everyone will have to go inside and windows will be closed. Time will tell.

[pilowsky]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-25, 03:18, said:

Nightclubs appear to be a major issue, Catalonia is considering closing theirs again. That said the kind of people who would catch it in a nightclub would be some of the least at risk of serious illness providing they're sensible about not passing it on and don't live with older relatives.

We don't have enough data on the pub opening yet, but the pubs round here I believe are doing it pretty responsibly, although I've not even been to one to drink outside.

It's true, The 'cognitive' thing was a cheap shot. Inspired by the shenanigans swirling around our Dear Leader. I hope everyone has enjoyed Sarah Cooper's latest effort. I never realised how important those extra points were at the end.

Every drink of alcohol lowers your mental acuity. It also lowers your ability to maintain social distancing.
One carrier may then spread it to others who will then transmit it to many who will then take it some to elderly relatives - do we really need to go over this all over again and again and again and again. encore et encore et encore et encore.arís agus arís agus arís agus arís eile.igen och igen och igen och igen.一遍又一遍
genug ist genug

[Cyberyeti]

pilowsky, on 2020-July-25, 03:43, said:

Every drink of alcohol lowers your mental acuity. It also lowers your ability to maintain social distancing.
One carrier may then spread it to others who will then transmit it to many who will then take it some to elderly relatives - do we really need to go over this all over again and again and again and again. encore et encore et encore et encore.arís agus arís agus arís agus arís eile.igen och igen och igen och igen.一遍又一遍
genug ist genug

This is true, but it's the people where you can't lower their mental acuity because there basically isn't any to start with that are the problem.

If you live with older family members - don't go to a pub unless you're going to stay outdoors.
If you live on your own or with a partner and you go inside a pub then don't go and see your older relatives for a while.

[y66]

Sarah Gilbert, the researcher leading the race to a Covid-19 vaccine by Clive Cookson at FT:

Quote

When Sarah Gilbert heard about a mysterious new respiratory infection spreading in China in early January, she immediately wondered whether this was the long-dreaded Disease X — a previously unknown pathogen that would cause a catastrophic pandemic.

The vaccinology professor at Oxford university’s Jenner Institute had been preparing for just such a momentous event. Her lab had developed technology to create vaccines against virulent viruses. As soon as Chinese scientists published genetic details of the new coronavirus — providing a target for vaccine development — she moved ahead at full speed.

This week, Oxford published encouraging results from the first phase of testing of its ChAdOx1 vaccine, showing it generated antibodies and immune cells to recognise and kill the Sars-Cov-2 virus responsible for Covid-19.

“It is truly astonishing that, within 100 days of learning the genetic sequence of the virus, Sarah and her team were able to begin a clinical trial of the vaccine,” says John Bell, Oxford’s senior medical professor. “She is a terrific scientist. She knew exactly what was needed and was absolutely effective at getting it done.”

With 22 other potential vaccines also in clinical trials and more than 100 at earlier stages of research, the 300-strong Oxford team has competition. “The Oxford vaccine is the leader but that doesn’t mean it will win in the end,” admits Sir John, adding that the world will need several Covid-19 vaccines.

So far, in terms of demand, Oxford is well ahead. Since the university made pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca its commercial and manufacturing partner, the vaccine has won advance orders for more than 2bn doses from around the world — subject to safety and efficacy tests with tens of thousands of participants in coming months.

Prof Gilbert, 58, has become the public face of the project — although, like many scientists, she is a reluctant celebrity. She speaks confidently about the project at occasional press teleconferences but interviews are rationed and largely avoid personal matters. “My family want to keep their private lives to themselves,” she says firmly.

She is, however, willing to disclose a bit about herself. “I was born in Kettering [Northamptonshire] and grew up there, only leaving for university,” she says. “My mother was a primary school teacher and my father was office manager for Loake Bros shoes.”

After a biology degree at the University of East Anglia, she completed a PhD in biochemistry at Hull university, followed by jobs in the biotech industry at the Brewing Industry Research Foundation, Leicester Biocentre and Delta Biotechnology. In 1994, Prof Gilbert joined Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Medicine where she has worked ever since.

She gave birth prematurely to triplets in 1998. In an article for the university about work-life balance she wrote: “Nursery fees would have cost more than my entire income as a postdoctoral scientist, so my partner has had to sacrifice his own career in order to look after our children.”

The triplets are now following in their mother’s footsteps, with all three studying biochemistry at university. They were also early volunteers for the clinical trial of Oxford’s Covid-19 vaccine.

When Prof Gilbert began her Oxford career, she focused on malaria, before moving on to flu vaccines. After becoming professor of vaccinology in 2010, she started work on the approach that led to ChAdOx1. This uses a genetically engineered chimpanzee adenovirus — which causes mild cold-like symptoms in apes but does not normally infect people — to carry elements of a harmful virus into human cells, where they stimulate the recipient’s immune system.

At the time that Covid-19 appeared, Prof Gilbert was applying the technology to some of the nastiest viruses known to medicine, including Nipah, Lassa and Rift Valley fever. But, significantly, her lab had already produced a vaccine against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome — a lethal disease caused by another coronavirus. This provided a model for the Covid-19 vaccine.

Prof Gilbert is reluctant to predict whether and when ChAdOx1 will move beyond clinical trials to vaccinate large numbers against Covid-19. There are three elements of uncertainty, she says.

First, it is not clear how long the trials will take to produce results. It will depend on how much virus is circulating in the places where the testing is taking place, which include Brazil, South Africa and the US. Then, AstraZeneca and its manufacturing partners must organise production on a huge scale. Finally, the regulators must decide whether the vaccine works well enough to be approved: the US Food and Drug Administration has set a 50 per cent efficacy threshold for Covid-19 vaccines.

If all goes well, the Oxford team says ChAdOx1 might be available by the end of the year to vaccinate the highest priority recipients, with supplies expanding rapidly during 2021.

As others take charge of the manufacturing and regulation, Prof Gilbert continues to lead the research in Oxford, making sure the trials run smoothly and the team’s work is communicated promptly in scientific papers.

At the same time, she is thinking of how to make vaccine research more efficient than was possible in January. “We are still thinking about Disease X,” Prof Gilbert says. “If we’d had everything in place this time, we could have been at least a month faster, which would have made a big difference.”

[pilowsky]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-25, 04:50, said:

This is true, but it's the people where you can't lower their mental acuity because there basically isn't any to start with that are the problem.

If you live with older family members - don't go to a pub unless you're going to stay outdoors.
If you live on your own or with a partner and you go inside a pub then don't go and see your older relatives for a while.

Permit me to introduce you to the concept of the "social contract". Imagine for a moment that you and your partner - who live on your own - and are asymptomatic carriers of a deadly disease that is highly contagious. Are you with me so far? Go to the pub...
At the pub, you meet some people... Are you following me now?
These people then go to their homes after touching the doorknob that you touched before the cleaner could clean it.
Oh dear, you have accidentally *****ed up the entire community.
Never mind. You had an enjoyable ale. Was it a cold Fosters?

[hrothgar]

pilowsky, on 2020-July-25, 06:43, said:

You had an enjoyable ale. Was it a cold Fosters?

If it was enjoyable, it sure as hell wasn't Fosters.

15 or so years back, I actually wandered down to Sydney to help with the Vugraph for the Juniors championship.
For the most part, it was a great trip. Meet some wonderful people.
Had some memorable meals.

But, damn, mass market Australian beer is dreadful (And your understanding of Tex Mex even worse)
But had some truly inspired Chinese food.

As I recall, Coopers was actually drinkable

[pilowsky]

I used to live around the corner from the Coopers brewery. "cloudy but fine".

It is close to the vineyard where Penfold grew the grapes for Grange Hermitage. https://en.wikipedia...Penfolds_Grange. Possibly something even Mikeh and I would agree with me when I say is fine wine.

The aroma of the brewery wafted across our house on the right day in the foothills of Adelaide.

I even went to medical school with one of the Cooper children.

Of course, the English stuff everything up by serving it warm.

[Cyberyeti]

pilowsky, on 2020-July-25, 06:43, said:

Permit me to introduce you to the concept of the "social contract". Imagine for a moment that you and your partner - who live on your own - and are asymptomatic carriers of a deadly disease that is highly contagious. Are you with me so far? Go to the pub...
At the pub, you meet some people... Are you following me now?
These people then go to their homes after touching the doorknob that you touched before the cleaner could clean it.
Oh dear, you have accidentally *****ed up the entire community.
Never mind. You had an enjoyable ale. Was it a cold Fosters?

No I'm not with you, asymptomayic carriers and highly contagious are not totally compatible in this case. All the stuff I've seen suggests you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms. You don't "meet people" without being socially distanced. The doors have been left open for you to go in so you don't touch the doorknob, and you sanitise your hands before touching the one to the toilet.

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-25, 10:10, said:

No I'm not with you, asymptomayic carriers and highly contagious are not totally compatible in this case. All the stuff I've seen suggests you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms.

Are you willfully trying to be ignorant on this topic or are you just plain stupid?


https://wwwnc.cdc.go...20-1595_article

[Winstonm]

hrothgar, on 2020-July-25, 13:51, said:

Are you willfully trying to be ignorant on this topic or are you just plain stupid?


https://wwwnc.cdc.go...20-1595_article

For 25 points: Garlic is to the undead as facts are to the ____ dead.

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on 2020-July-25, 13:51, said:

Are you willfully trying to be ignorant on this topic or are you just plain stupid?


https://wwwnc.cdc.go...20-1595_article

No I believe what is said every damn day on the media here. Yes you can transmit it while asymptomatic, I didn't say you couldn't, but you're at least an order of magnitude less likely to do so than if you have symptoms, particularly if you don't do anything stupid like shout near people.

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-25, 14:58, said:

No I believe what is said every damn day on the media here. Yes you can transmit it while asymptomatic, I didn't say you couldn't, but you're at least an order of magnitude less likely to do so than if you have symptoms, particularly if you don't do anything stupid like shout near people.

Thank you for clarifying.

"Stupid" it is...

[pilowsky]

Have you ever noticed that there is no correlation at all between competence in one area and competence in another?

Someone who is fantastic in one field may not be the best bridge player.

Interestingly, there is also no relationship between competence and confidence. Although as a rule, men do seem to have more confidence than women - Sarah Cooper said that quite recently.

She was referring to Donald J Trump on the topic of cognition and COVID19

In Trump, I think, we have a man who is nearly 100% confidence and 0% competence.

Isn't that something?

[Cyberyeti]

hrothgar, on 2020-July-25, 15:10, said:

Thank you for clarifying.

"Stupid" it is...

Do I really have to block you for beaing a rude ass, our government has also said this as has EVERY expert I've heard comment on this. You are MANY times more likely to transmit the virus while symptomatic.

"Four individual studies from Brunei, Guangzhou China, Taiwan China and the Republic of Korea found that between 0% and 2.2% of people with asymptomatic infection infected anyone else, compared to 0.8%-15.4% of people with symptoms" source https://www.who.int/...ion-precautions

And bear in mind people who are symptomatic will stay away from others so the chance of them infecting somebody if they did what the presymptomatic or asymptomatic cases did is higher than those figures suggest.

[hrothgar]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-25, 15:21, said:

our government has also said this as has EVERY expert I've heard comment on this.

Then perhaps you need to crawl out of whatever little bubble you live in...

At least on this side of the pond, doctors have been talking about asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread for months.

And, yes, it's quite likely that people who are symptomatic are more contagious, but that's not the issue.
The issue is whether people who are asymptomatic/pre-sympotomatic pose a significant risk.

[pilowsky]

Unfortunately Mr Cyberyeti, symptomatic people do not stay away.

Some of them believe that God will protect them and others.

Some of them believe that not being allowed to go out infringes their 'right' to free speech and free assembly.

I know that for a grown-up this is difficult to grasp. I could hardly believe it until, as a Doctor, I visited some of their homes. But it is true. Some people just don't care about you, me, or even Richard.