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Coronavirus Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it

#1301 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-April-30, 05:52

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-April-29, 18:30, said:

There is also the possibility that the breadth of the curriculum varies between countries.


There's also a change over time.

I was at the end of my school career in 1983 where I did double maths A level (and study beyond that to do the Cambridge entrance exam), I graduated nearly 30 years later in what was effectively applied maths/stats. The second year of my degree was less tough and rigorous than my final year at school (and I was able to verify this as it appears I forgot to return one of the school textbooks, the third year of the degree was a big step up from the second). When you try to answer a question in some 3rd year coursework using the wrong technique and get the solution out, to get a comment from the tutor to the effect that you'd done a truly epic feat of integration well beyond the scope of this degree by doing something that was entirely routine at A level ...

I used to attend a study weekend where you got to chat informally with some of the tutors, and they pretty much all said that they could no longer set questions they set even 10 years before as they'd be much too hard for current students.
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#1302 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2021-April-30, 09:47

View Postthepossum, on 2021-April-28, 20:04, said:

I know its a long time ago but I'm sure many people come across it at high school or even primary school

It's been 4 decades, but unless things have changed significantly I doubt it. I probably learned it in the Probability and Statistics class I took at MIT, but I don't remember it specifically.

I've encountered it a number of times later in life because I happen to read things like Scientific American. I'd be very surprised if people who don't deal with technical or mathematical information on a regular basis know of it by name.

Yes, our brains use the principle it describes on a regular basis, although intuitive probability and statistics is often incorrect. The field of behavioral economics, as discussed in books like "Thinking Fast and Slow" and "Predictably Irrational", explains the systematic errors we almost all make.

And even knowing Bayes Theorem doesn't make it easy to apply in daily life. It takes extreme rigor to overcome the tendency to use normal intuition.

#1303 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2021-April-30, 09:49

View Postkenberg, on 2021-April-29, 06:55, said:

Just about anytime someone says "Everybody knows that" I think the speaker needs to get out more and look around.

Doesn't everyone know that?

#1304 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 03:18

More about that whackjob school in Florida (where else?) that wants to ban teachers who got Covid vaccinations.

Florida GOP Kills Measure To Protect Vaccinated Workers From Retaliation

Quote

Pizzo introduced his measure following news that the Centner Academy elementary school in Miami had issued an edict that vaccinated teachers or staff would be banned from having any contact with students. Vaccinated employees risked losing their jobs, warned school founder Leila Centner. Centner and her husband have made significant contributions to the Republican Party.


Isn't it redundant to say that Centner is a Manchurian President Republican??? What other party affiliation makes any sense?

Quote

According to a student, a Centner Academy science teacher told a class that they shouldn’t hug their vaccinated parents for more than 5 seconds because it was too dangerous, CBS Channel 3 Miami reported. (Check out the video up top.)


Apparently the coronovirus has irreparably damaged the genes of some of the Republican anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers.
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#1305 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 10:44

getting back to a saner worldview:
https://www.pbs.org/...ng-the-hesitant

Dr. Keiser is having some success, better than the national average the report ays. Here is an excerpt:


Quote

And I think, in retrospect, what we're going to say is that the first 50 percent were easy, and I think the next 25 percent are — and that's that group of people that are saying they're not sure — is going to be a lot harder.


His message appears to be that it's all going well with about half the population. With another quarter, he hopes for the best. For the remaining quarter, he is a good deal less hopeful. I hate to say it, but this appears to be about as much as it is realistic to hope for.

For the watch and waits, I have a simple question: How long?
I'm 82. Ten years ago I took no meds. Now I take meds. There is reason to be cautious, some docs never saw a pill that they didn't like. But still, I take my meds. Caution mixed with reality. So watch and wait, ok, but watch, wait, and then, after a bit of watching, and a bit of waiting, take the damn meds. Now is the time to reach that third stage.
Ken
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#1306 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 13:04

View Postkenberg, on 2021-May-01, 10:44, said:

getting back to a saner worldview:
https://www.pbs.org/...ng-the-hesitant

Dr. Kaiser is having some success, better than the national average the report ays. Here is an excerpt:




His message appears to be that it's all going well with about half the population. With another quarter, he hopes for the best. For the remaining quarter, he is a good deal less hopeful. I hate to say it, but this appears to be about as much as it is realistic to hope for.

For the watch and waits, I have a simple question: How long?
I'm 82. Ten years ago I took no meds. Now I take meds. There is reason to be cautious, some docs never saw a pill that they didn't like. But still, I take my meds. Caution mixed with reality. So watch and wait, ok, but watch, wait, and then, after a bit of watching, and a bit of waiting, take the damn meds. Now is the time to reach that third stage.


On a more positive take I read (I think of NPR) that there are estimates that about 60% of the population has either been vaccinated or exposed to the virus so we are much closer to herd immunity than thought - in fact the article stated we were close to a tipping point.
Found it: https://www.npr.org/...rus-experts-say




Quote

"I think we've hit a tipping point," says Dr. Ashish Jha, the dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "We've really turned a corner on this latest wave. And I think that the worst days of the pandemic really are now behind us."

Jha and others base that conclusion on several factors. First of all, a significant proportion of the U.S. population — an estimated 34% — already has some immunity to the virus from having been exposed to the virus.




This post has been edited by Winstonm: 2021-May-01, 13:09

"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter.
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#1307 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 13:30

Cautious optimism, both the optimism and the caution, seem reasonable.
We are seeing people, some, carefully.
Ken
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#1308 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 15:51

There are a lot of people out there who, for one reason or another, are not vaccinated against all sorts of things https://ourworldinda...nation-coverage
Although the USA has reached >90% for most things (97% for polio).
Regarding coronavirus, it seems that the USA is doing really well in many places. Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58% https://ourworldinda...100?time=latest.
Combined, the USA is still just short of 50% (as of today), but the situation globally is dire. Only 7.57% of the world population has received at least one dose as of today. https://ourworldinda...SA~URY~OWID_WRL.

The problem is made worse because the Trump organisation, in collusion with other Western "democracies", decided that it would be a good idea to NOT make the vaccine 'open-source' so that rich companies could get richer.

The Western way. Trickle-down economics doesn't work with infectious diseases.

As JK Galbraith once remarked when asked to comment on a statement that the "level of political killings in El Salvador was at an acceptable level", - he replied:
"My question is: What is an acceptable level of political killings?"

For those of you that haven't heard JKG speak, here's a great sample http://bit.ly/JKGspeak. He talks a lot about the relationship between economics and science.
non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1309 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 16:17

My impression is that IP issues around the various vaccines is very much a red herring. The various companies could release the IP tomorrow and this still wouldn't lead to any additional shots going into people's arms.

The real issue here is that manufacturing the most effective versions of these vaccines requires highly specialized intermediate goods ranging from the lipids nanoparticles that are used to encapsulate the mRNA vaccines to the various plastic bags that the bio-reactors use when churning out the mRNA. Plus, you have enormous issues involving transport and refrigeration.

The J&J, Astrazeneca, and Sputnik vaccines are probably a lot easier to manufacture, but even here there are real issues with scaling production. (and here, once again I don't think that IP is the real gating issue)

The sheer number of people in locations like India and Brazil that need to be treated is mind boggling. Absent a time machine and investing heavily in productive capabilities 12 months back, I'm not sure what can be done to avoid catastrophe.

I'm terrified of the new variants breaking out in a big was in an area like, say Nigeria with even worse public health infrastructure than India.
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#1310 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 16:54

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-May-01, 15:51, said:

Although the USA has reached >90% for most things (97% for polio).
Regarding coronavirus, it seems that the USA is doing really well in many places. Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58% https://ourworldinda...100?time=latest.


Don't be fooled, Florida is still acknowledged as a national joke when it comes to Covid leadership. Yes, the US is doing well compared to the rest of the world. Florida brings up the rear for the US as it ranks 40th in Covid vaccination rates in the USA. I blame this on Florida not having enough ultra rich private retirement communities where a substantial number of the residents contribute heavily to the Florida Repugs.
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#1311 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 17:09

View Postjohnu, on 2021-May-01, 16:54, said:

Don't be fooled, Florida is still acknowledged as a national joke when it comes to Covid leadership. Yes, the US is doing well compared to the rest of the world. Florida brings up the rear for the US as it ranks 40th in Covid vaccination rates in the USA. I blame this on Florida not having enough ultra rich private retirement communities where a substantial number of the residents contribute heavily to the Florida Repugs.


Note: The cart that Pilowsky is citing is showing the number of doses per 100 people.
So, if one person gets a full treatment of Pfizer, they get double counted.

As of yesterday, 36% of the folks in Florida were fully vaccinated
56% percent have had at least one dose
Alderaan delenda est
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#1312 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 17:36

The term "fully vaccinated" just refers to whether or not an individual has been given the number of doses as set out in the schedule.
I think that you will find that one dose confers very substantial protection.
The first dose of any immunogen (the thing that provokes an immune response) effectively immunises about 70-90% of the population. (look at the data on Hepatitis vaccination).

Subsequent doses improve the immunity to 90-99%.

If 56% of the population have had 1 dose then I would expect that about 50% of the population have a lot of protection.


I have produced dozens of antibodies using various methods over the years.
There are many considerations.
Including host, dose, carrier, the immunogen, timing of vaccination and many other more technical factors.
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#1313 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 17:46

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-May-01, 16:17, said:

My impression is that IP issues around the various vaccines is very much a red herring. The various companies could release the IP tomorrow and this still wouldn't lead to any additional shots going into people's arms.

The real issue here is that manufacturing the most effective versions of these vaccines requires highly specialized intermediate goods ranging from the lipids nanoparticles that are used to encapsulate the mRNA vaccines to the various plastic bags that the bio-reactors use when churning out the mRNA. Plus, you have enormous issues involving transport and refrigeration.

The J&J, Astrazeneca, and Sputnik vaccines are probably a lot easier to manufacture, but even here there are real issues with scaling production. (and here, once again I don't think that IP is the real gating issue)

The sheer number of people in locations like India and Brazil that need to be treated is mind boggling. Absent a time machine and investing heavily in productive capabilities 12 months back, I'm not sure what can be done to avoid catastrophe.

I'm terrified of the new variants breaking out in a big was in an area like, say Nigeria with even worse public health infrastructure than India.


This impression does not reflect the realpolitik of vaccine production.
The problem is nothing to do with "releasing the IP tomorrow" - which is itself a red herring.

The problem is that the technology was not open-source from the beginning.
It was always obvious that COVID19 was a global emergency that required global action.
What did the USA and others do? they restricted the supply chain (of knowledge and production) from the start.
Vaccine nationalism is as big a problem as vaccine hesitancy - possibly bigger.



non est deus ex machina; även maskiner behöver lite kärlek, J'ai toujours misé sur l'étrange gentillesse des robots.
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#1314 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 17:58

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-May-01, 17:36, said:

The term "fully vaccinated" just refers to whether or not an individual has been given the number of doses as set out in the schedule.
I think that you will find that one dose confers very substantial protection.


No one is contesting that.

The point that I was making is that the chart that you displayed is not particularly useful in understand what percentage of the population has been vaccinated.
Alderaan delenda est
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#1315 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 18:18

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-May-01, 17:46, said:

This impression does not reflect the realpolitik of vaccine production.
The problem is nothing to do with "releasing the IP tomorrow" - which is itself a red herring.

The problem is that the technology was not open-source from the beginning.
It was always obvious that COVID19 was a global emergency that required global action.
What did the USA and others do? they restricted the supply chain (of knowledge and production) from the start.
Vaccine nationalism is as big a problem as vaccine hesitancy - possibly bigger.


Yeap...

Things were / are far from perfect.
Hopefully folks will learn the right lessons.

Please note: I strenuously disagree with (almost all) of the policies that the Trump administration put in place. And this certainly holds true for stuff around liability indemnification for vaccines. At the same time, this was all fairly predictable. I don't think that the "issue" is that the US or the Brits or whomever are hoarding vaccines or raw materials or whatever; rather the issue was the failure to invest in necessary infrastructure long long ago...
Alderaan delenda est
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#1316 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 18:24

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-May-01, 17:58, said:

No one is contesting that.

The point that I was making is that the chart that you displayed is not particularly useful in understand what percentage of the population has been vaccinated.


And the point that I am making is that there is a difference between an individual being immune, an individual being immune enough not to get really sick and an individual being given two doses of a substance 3 weeks apart.

To understand the data, you need to have considerable knowledge about medicine, vaccines, immunology and more.

Trump was using the same graphic source in his infamous interview with Johnathon Swan.
I was surprised at the time that the President of the United States had to rely on graphs from an open-source internet site instead of the CDC, NSA and CIA.
I probably shouldn't have been.

You are muddying the herrings in the water.
I don't know why.
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#1317 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 18:43

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-May-01, 18:24, said:

You are muddying the herrings in the water.
I don't know why.


I am simply pointing out that the numbers that you cited are easily misinterpreted.

I think that most people would interpret "Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58%" as meaning that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot.
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#1318 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 19:41

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-May-01, 18:43, said:

I am simply pointing out that the numbers that you cited are easily misinterpreted.

I think that most people would interpret "Even Florida - which is an internet meme for COVID incompetence has reached 70.58%" as meaning that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot.


If things weren't "easily misinterpreted" we wouldn't be in the pickle we're in now.
Every time I look up COVID anywhere, about 10% percent of the stuff is a conspiracy theory.
Even in the scientific literature, there are a lot of "false narratives" as the NSA likes to call lies. Thanks for that one Fiona Hill.


If 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot then even if they had all only received one dose (obviously not true - even Trump has had a full course) then the protection afforded to all of the 70+% is (likely) => 80% of the 70% In addition to a lot of other immune people.
As it happens this is an undercount anyway since many of the unvaccinated covidiots who are vaccine refuseniks may have had the disease and be immune - or not be susceptible to getting it anyway.


What we don't know is how many of these undocumented "immunizens" are "Typhoid Mary's" - capable of carrying and transmitting the disease without being aware that they have it.
Estimates of sub-clinical infection (got it but don't know it) are 80-90% of the infected population.

Biology is a tricky business.
So is restraint, but it's getting a pretty heavy workout today.
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#1319 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 19:48

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-May-01, 19:41, said:


If 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot then even if they had all only received one dose (obviously not true - even Trump has had a full course) then the protection afforded to all of the 70+% is (likely) => 80% of the 70% In addition to a lot of other immune people.
As it happens this is an undercount anyway since many of the unvaccinated covidiots who are vaccine refuseniks may have had the disease and be immune - or not be susceptible to getting it anyway.



Once again,

the chart that you provided does not show that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot

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#1320 User is offline   Gilithin 

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Posted 2021-May-01, 19:56

View Posthrothgar, on 2021-May-01, 19:48, said:

Once again,

the chart that you provided does not show that 70.58% of the population has received at least one shot


Could I humbly suggest someone post:

a. % who have had 2 doses;
b. % who have had 1 dose of a single dose vaccine;
c. % who have had only 1 dose of a 2 dose vaccine;
d. % who have not received any dose; and
e. (optional) % who have not received any dose but are confirmed to have had covid in the last 3 months.

It should be simple from there for everyone to understand the maths involved.
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