[thepossum]

Dear all

I hesitate to post this (based on recent response to queries about missed slam hands) but would be interested on bidding thoughts, and this seems a reasonable one . I have decided South's 3NT may not be advisable and 1D followed by a forcing auction may be better. But would not North consider a slam opposite a 3NT bid. North is strong enough for strong NT in terms of points, not shape. Surely gives enough for a quantitative bid or even investigation of club. Again maybe south's 3NT gets in the way. I have read some advice that a jump to 3NT should be avoided if possible. Note 3NT should have the note 13-16??, not 13+ in my diagram (which maybe is the problem undervaluing S)

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regards P

Edit. I know LTC is only for suit fits, but just as an observation N has only 4 losers with a beautiful club suit and distribution, 17+ points. S has 7 losers and has indicated 13-15/6? points. At the top end that is close enough to explore NT or Club slam? Obviously on a strict 33 it would not be bid but ...............

[akwoo]

1) I'm not too disappointed to miss this slam. It's only a bit better than 50%. In a weak-ish field I don't want to bid this slam, because I'm going to get a good score for 3N making 6 anyway. So you'd be risking a gain of 30% (from 70% to 100%) for a loss of 70% (from 70% to 0%). (In a stronger field where taking the maximum tricks in 3N whatever they are is only 50-55%, then the calculations are different.)

2) I think 3N should be no wider than a 3 point range. You can play it as 13-15 or 15-17 or 16-18.

3) If South wants to upgrade that 15 (which is reasonable), then I think the auction should go 1C-1D-1S-2H(*)-2N-3N-4N-6N.

(*) 4th suit forcing to game - in general, going through 4th suit forcing shows a stronger hand, though it could also be just looking for a diamond fit. North has enough to ask anyway.

[thepossum]

Thanks Akwoo

Upon re-reading I had misread the 3NT range so it is 13-15 which does put Norths decision right on the limit. Although I think North's hand is worth an upgrade

regards P

[The_Badger]

I don't see this hand as strictly a 50% or so slam, even though in essence that's what it is. There's also a 50% chance the opponents will make the wrong lead if the hand is played by South. North's hand is far too strong for a 1NT opening, even though you'd like to protect those doubleton kings.

Even though you could be missing two aces here, I see the bidding going 1♣ - 3NT - 4NT (quantitative) - 6NT. It doesn't give much away. This is the type of non-descript auction that defenders hate.

Now find the winning lead, or the losing lead? Not so easy...

[thepossum]

Thx Badger. Yes, when I mentioned the 1NT for North I was just commenting that in terms of strength it was at least 17 opposite a 3NT response. So I would have hoped for a quantitative as you say. In future I may have to force a hand like that differently. Various evaluations upgrade north to 19 points plus my 15 is clearly enough to explore.

I'm curious about the 50% estimate (location of A or number of aces etc) but obviously there are weaknesses. However leading towards south gives chances as you say.


The full hand was

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I think sometimes I would be happy with 50% but it depends on circumstances. What I wonder is, how easy can you estimate a percentage from the auction and approx 32+ points. Unless we explore aces. I'm not sure who has best chance of assessing it accurately. I would definitely have bid quantitative given the chance.

[Cyberyeti]

I would consider the south hand too good for 13-15, a decent 5 card suit, the spade intermediates, the unsupported J is in partner's suit, but even so, the slam is not brilliant and you may well not make it.

I suspect we'd get beyond 3N but probably stop in in 4N or 5N. I think 6♣ is the best slam, in that you can try to bring down the ♦Q with a ruff if trumps aren't 5-1 or 6-0 without prejudicing the spade finesse at all if they're 3-3 and only causing an issue if they're 4-2 if the Q♦ and A♠ are in the same hand.

[Tramticket]

I really dislike the 3NT response. Six diamonds has no play on this hand, but it would only need a small change for this to be a good spot. You have cut out three rounds of bidding and hidden a decent five-card suit, for little purpose in my opinion.

[pescetom]

 Tramticket, on 2019-January-26, 05:46, said:

I really dislike the 3NT response. Six diamonds has no play on this hand, but it would only need a small change for this to be a good spot. You have cut out three rounds of bidding and hidden a decent five-card suit, for little purpose in my opinion.

I see 3NT as downright criminal.
We would probably start:
1♣ - 1♦
1♠ - 2♦ (FG art)
3♣ - 4♣
4♦ - 4♥
4NT (2 KC) - ?
At this point it's moot whether to bid slam or not but we'd probably chance it rather than game in the minor or NT.

[eagles123]

 Tramticket, on 2019-January-26, 05:46, said:

I really dislike the 3NT response. Six diamonds has no play on this hand, but it would only need a small change for this to be a good spot. You have cut out three rounds of bidding and hidden a decent five-card suit, for little purpose in my opinion.

yeah I think that's the big lesson from this hand, regardless of whether you want to be in slam or not, this random leap to 3N for no reason sucks big time. the whole point of bidding at bridge is to have a conversation, sure at time punting is best, but it's rare, these unnessecary leaps to 3N, or worse still blackwood/keycard/whatever having no clue what to do with the response are imo the worst crimes of the typical LOL bidding

[ahydra]

I don't like the 3NT response either, this is not the kind of hand for it (should be more like 33(34) where you have much less interest in a suit contract) and as others have pointed out this hand is worth more than just "15 points".

I play 3NT as about 13-16, but even opposite 13-15, North might (should?) invite with that lovely club suit. So 1C-3NT; 4NT-6D; 6NT is not a totally outrageous auction.

Slam has some play (diamonds or pointy suit squeeze), I don't mind being in it as long as I'm not against experts who would duck the SA

ahydra

[thepossum]

Dear all

Thanks for all the great advice! As I said I had read somewhere that 3NT was not a good bid. Thanks for backing up that advice. I wont do it again

regards P

[helene_t]

North might try 4♣, after which South has a difficult choice with a super-maximum but no club fit. If North instead bids a quantitative 4NT, South has an easy raise to 6. But it's not natural for North not to show their club suit.

A more normal auction would be
1♣-1♦
1♠-2♥
3NT-pass

3NT is not "fast arrival" but shows a maximum. If North is limited to 17 points by their 1♠ rebid, South will not try for slam. OTOH if North could still have 18, South may try 4NT and North bids 6.

So depending on style and approach you can end up in 3NT or 6NT. Both are reasonable contracts.

[P_Marlowe]

 thepossum, on 2019-January-26, 19:21, said:

Dear all

Thanks for all the great advice! As I said I had read somewhere that 3NT was not a good bid. Thanks for backing up that advice. I wont do it again

regards P

3NT is not a bad bid, it showes 13-15 and a bal. shape, a description that describes
the South hand pretty well.
You are max. for the bid, maybe slightly above max., but not by a huge margin, this
happens sometimes.
The bid minimizes information flow, which is sometimes good, and sometimes bad, but in
general peoble try to minize the information flow.

And see Helenes suggestion: The bid basically tells North, that we have a club fit, the
most common shapes for South involve 3+ clubs. In case you ever play with a human, and
have the mental power, you may include 3+ support for openers minor into a 3NT response.
Wont hurt much, and may help sometimes.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[thepossum]

 helene_t, on 2019-January-27, 02:23, said:

North might try 4♣, after which South has a difficult choice with a super-maximum but no club fit. If North instead bids a quantitative 4NT, South has an easy raise to 6. But it's not natural for North not to show their club suit.

A more normal auction would be
1♣-1♦
1♠-2♥
3NT-pass

3NT is not "fast arrival" but shows a maximum. If North is limited to 17 points by their 1♠ rebid, South will not try for slam. OTOH if North could still have 18, South may try 4NT and North bids 6.

So depending on style and approach you can end up in 3NT or 6NT. Both are reasonable contracts.

Thankyou Helene. I think the end result was ok but after analysis I would have liked to give more chance of exploring. My hand is arguably stronger than a 13-15 NT which is what I bid. I was intending it as a simple game bid but was disappointed after seeing dummy

As you and Marlowe said, 3NT is an acceptable bid.

For other people reading, when I said that I red that 3NT was advised to be avoided if possible it was 3NT with a stronger hand than 13-15. So I would do it again with a weaker 13-15 Its just that this hand was a strong 13-15. However if I were North I would have done something after 3NT