[johnu]

 mikeh, on 2018-October-26, 15:35, said:

Did your simulation score the leads only by trick expectancy?

Just best lead, so resulting in the most number of tricks. On most hands, the majority of possible leads will be the "best" lead and if 7NT is making, every card is the "best" lead. From the hands I visually inspected, most of the hands where a diamond lead was a loser was when declarer had AKJ or AJ or KJ and dummy had the other high honor and there was no other way for declarer to make a 3rd diamond trick.

[mcphee]

I would never led a S from this holding, which I consider the least attractive choice. Strikes me passive is the route to go and a H fits as most logical, next is a D.

[Tramticket]

 kmtnyc, on 2018-October-27, 14:34, said:

So where do we find the answer?

I'm not sure about "the" answer, but "an" answer - the one at the table is:

---

Not what you were expecting? I guess that they were always going to slam, once North chose to evaluate his hand as a 20 count (not silly). But the rest of the room probably opened 1♦ and all other pairs ended up in 3NT (except one 5♥ contract!). It seems that South did not have the tools to investigate a minor suit slam after a 2NT opening and so, with half a toolbox, they finished in 6NT - which looks like a reasonable slam … unless I can lead a spade.


My thinking was that the auction tended to suggest that North might be short in a major, so leading a major was favourite. I don't like leading from JXXX and a passive lead is often right against 6NT (I wasn't expecting a six-card suit in dummy), so I chose to lead a heart, like most respondents here.

[msjennifer]

Sir,Congrats to the few who chose the correct spade lead.

[eagles123]

when I first saw the problem I thought a spade lead was insane, the fact that it happens to be the right lead on this hand doesn't change my opinion!!

[mikeh]

 msjennifer, on 2018-October-28, 10:13, said:

Sir,Congrats to the few who chose the correct spade lead.

I assume English is your second language. The fact that a spade lead worked on the actual hand does not make it the ‘correct’ lead. Bridge is a game of percentages. Sometimes terrible plays or bids work. That does not make them correct.

[cherdano]

Obviously dummy could be 4432 with 12 hcp. But she could also 2326 with a semisolid club suit and 10 hcp - if partner has 5 hearts, playing there gives an extra trick as a ruff, whereas playing in clubs is less likely to produce an extra trick.

The diamond lead is catering to the long club suit in my view.

[pescetom]

 Tramticket, on 2018-October-28, 04:14, said:

Not what you were expecting?

North is weaker and South stronger than expected, but suit lengths are spot on and West is quite close.
I had doodled West as:
KTxx
J98x
Tx
Txx

 cherdano, on 2018-October-29, 05:30, said:

Obviously dummy could be 4432 with 12 hcp. But she could also 2326 with a semisolid club suit and 10 hcp

Dummy is unlikely to be 2326 given the actual bidding.

[cherdano]

 pescetom, on 2018-October-29, 07:15, said:

Dummy is unlikely to be 2326 given the actual bidding.

Thanks for letting me know. However, would you mind explaining this fact a little bit?

[lamford]

 gordontd, on 2018-October-27, 05:33, said:

I imagine 3D would have shown a four-card major.

Indeed. "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

[lamford]

 msjennifer, on 2018-October-28, 10:13, said:

Sir, Congrats fortune smiles on the few who chose the correct lucky spade lead.

FYP

[pescetom]

 cherdano, on 2018-October-29, 07:24, said:

Thanks for letting me know. However, would you mind explaining this fact a little bit?

No fact, just my reasoning unless I missed something.
Dummy bid Stayman and I doubt he would do that holding 2326 just on the off chance of a 3-5 hearts fit, unless he had a way to show his clubs in the probable case of misfit - which he didn't.

[Dinarius]

Obviously, the important thing is not to give anything away.

The bidding suggests 32/34 points, so Partner has something.

Secondly, the bidding suggests (I presume) no 4 card major in South hand and North hand being slightly favourite to hold Hearts for his Stayman bid.

Thus, my strategy to try and give away nothing and let declarer do all work himself is to lead a Spade.

D.

[phntmshark]

Shocked at the people who did NOT choose to lead a spade, I'd have thought this was clearcut. Think about the holdings you'd need partner to hold for each lead to be correct, and assume he has no more than 1 top honor in any suit (safe assumption). What are you hoping to find in hearts for that lead to be correct? If he has the K you've located it for defender, and you have no honors to promote with the capture of the K. A spade honor, however, promotes your own spade holding into something dangerous.

[johnu]

 phntmshark, on 2018-November-03, 14:52, said:

Shocked at the people who did NOT choose to lead a spade, I'd have thought this was clearcut. Think about the holdings you'd need partner to hold for each lead to be correct, and assume he has no more than 1 top honor in any suit (safe assumption). What are you hoping to find in hearts for that lead to be correct? If he has the K you've located it for defender, and you have no honors to promote with the capture of the K. A spade honor, however, promotes your own spade holding into something dangerous.

Excellent analysis based on seeing all 4 hands and knowing a spade lead is the only lead to beat the contract.

[phntmshark]

 johnu, on 2018-November-03, 15:02, said:

Excellent analysis based on seeing all 4 hands and knowing a spade lead is the only lead to beat the contract.

Want to look back to page 1 where I gave almost this exact same reasoning before all 4 hands were known? Sheesh.