[yunling]

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West leads ♥2 (count).

The problem may not have a 100% scientific answer, but how to maximize our chance?

[wank]

yunling, on 2018-June-22, 23:19, said:

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West leads ♥2 (count).

The problem may not have a 100% scientific answer, but how to maximize our chance?

i'd just go for the simple option unless rho has a singleton spade: win the heart, draw trumps, exit a heart. if rho wins and leads a diamond win the ace of diamonds. play 3 round of clubs. makes when lho has qc, when rho has it doubleton/singleton and when rho has kd, singleton diamond or jt doubleton.

if rho turns up with short spades, i suppose that changes the odds. it might be better to go after diamonds then.

[yunling]

The line depends on how opponents defend.

Probably it is best to play that the opponent who switches to a club is not holding the Queen, so after drawing trumps(2-2 break) play a heart which east wins.

If he returns a club then play west for ♣Q, three round of clubs;

If he returns a diamond, take the finesse; When west wins the trick, he might not be able to continue a diamond safely since ♦8 become a big card; If a club is played smoothly, play east for ♣Q, so win ♣A, ♦A and 2 rounds of clubs.

If, however, west is able to continue ♦ without setting up ♦8, then win ♦A, run trumps and play for a throw-in sqeeze.

Anything might happen at the table and I think this is the best way to try my luck.

In fact East held

xx
KQJxxx
xx
Qxx

At the table I simply played three round of clubs and went down.

[gszes]

yunling, on 2018-June-28, 07:46, said:

The line depends on how opponents defend.

Probably it is best to play that the opponent who switches to a club is not holding the Queen, so after drawing trumps(2-2 break) play a heart which east wins.

If he returns a club then play west for ♣Q, three round of clubs;

If he returns a diamond, take the finesse; When west wins the trick, he might not be able to continue a diamond safely since ♦8 become a big card; If a club is played smoothly, play east for ♣Q, so win ♣A, ♦A and 2 rounds of clubs.

If, however, west is able to continue ♦ without setting up ♦8, then win ♦A, run trumps and play for a throw-in sqeeze.

Anything might happen at the table and I think this is the best way to try my luck.

In fact East held
xx
KQJxxx
xx
Qxx

At the table I simply played three round of clubs and went down.

The thought process you describe (if rho switches to a dia when they win the heart) appears to work on this particular hand. A dia shift looks vastly superior to a club shift no matter what east is holding. This makes a decision on how to play the hand based on the dia shift alone seems wrong.

[yunling]

gszes, on 2018-July-09, 12:32, said:

The thought process you describe (if rho switches to a dia when they win the heart) appears to work on this particular hand. A dia shift looks vastly superior to a club shift no matter what east is holding. This makes a decision on how to play the hand based on the dia shift alone seems wrong.

Not really. East held ♦93 and he played the 9.
After west wins the trick with ♦K, returning ♦ will allow ♦8 to win a trick which happened at a number of tables.

[Winstonm]

yunling, on 2018-July-10, 05:12, said:

Not really. East held ♦93 and he played the 9.
After west wins the trick with ♦K, returning ♦ will allow ♦8 to win a trick which happened at a number of tables.

Once spades are found to be 2/2, it seems likely that east is 2632(23). It looks to me like an endplay might be the plan, and that plan depends on what RHO does when in with the second heart. The 9 of diamonds looks like a doubleton, so I would take the losing finesse. To me, this would be the critical point in the hand. When west switches to a club, I would have to guess whether or not to let it run to my jack or whether to win, continue to strip the diamonds from east, and throw him in with the club queen.