[shyams]

OK, some more random thoughts (mostly to get the frustrations out of my system)

1. The next few weeks will re-emphasise one of the flaws of the EU --- their slow, ponderous nature of responding to events.
As a case in point,

• The Governor for the Bank of England has already clearly declared that BoE will backstop the banks and ensure liquidity.
  We still await a similar response from the ECB. And when Mr Draghi does speak, he will reiterate that he cannot change much without fiscal discipline by the Eurozone countries (i.e. he will dilute the impact of his own assertions of support)
  
• The British stock markets have taken a smaller hit on day 1 compared to the French, German and other European bourses. So much for their governments allaying the fears of a jittery stock market.
  
• Regardless of what the BoE said (no Plan B), they will roll out a comprehensive plan to safeguard the economy and protect businesses and GDP growth. They may not find it easy, and may not succeed initially. However, they will be off to a good start. Let's see what the European Commission and the ECB decide on an equivalent for the Eurozone.

2. The first reaction of the British politicians has been to talk about restoring calm and talking of unity. Even thought the Scottish First Minister rightly made a demand for a new referendum, she was careful in how she talked and ensured that collectively we come out of this in a proper manner. In contrast, Donald Tusk was quoted as "making an example of Britain" and their willingness to make this a punishing ritual for the UK. They are surely not looking at the big picture here.

3. Many UK politicians have gone on record to tell all EU citizens in the UK that nothing will change. If I were to guess (and I have no idea whether I'll be right), EU nationals not in minimum wage jobs (i.e. most EU nationals) in the UK will find their lives and livelihood unaffected. You may have to fill a few documents and spend a couple of hours, but your life and your residence status will probably not change. If anything, I would expect at least one EU country (Portugal perhaps?) to make life hard for British residents wishing to continue residing there.

In summary, this time of stress will expose the lack of preparedness within the EU establishment. And that (in itself) is a risk which the financial markets will take note of for a long time.

[WellSpyder]

shyams, on 2016-June-24, 08:39, said:

The next few weeks will re-emphasise one of the flaws of the EU --- their slow, ponderous nature of responding to events.

I found myself thinking about this a couple of days ago. Mr Cameron's response in a similar position with the Scottish referendum of a result apparently too close to call shortly before the vote was to promise the Scottish people more independence within the UK if they voted to stay in. But of course there was no chance the EU could do something similar for the UK, given the policy-making process - even if they wanted to. (With hindsight, perhaps it is a pity they did not do this when Mr Cameron was trying to renegotiate the UK's relationship with Europe before calling the referendum.)

Arguably, a good outcome now given the apparent strength of feeling in a number of other countries against the EU as it is, would be for the remaining EU countries to negotiate a revised form of association - maybe we could call it a "European Community" rather than a "European Union"?? - and see whether the UK would like to be part of that club. But I don't see any chance of that happening.

[Vampyr]

mike777, on 2016-June-24, 07:01, said:

As I mentioned in my posts, those who posted or wanted to remain seem to discuss the issue in terms of money and with a lack of passion or sense of duty or loyalty to Brussels.

You have mentioned this "duty to Brussels" several times. You seem to have it backwards -- it was they who had a duty to us.

[mike777]

Vampyr, on 2016-June-24, 14:58, said:

You have mentioned this "duty to Brussels" several times. You seem to have it backwards -- it was they who had a duty to us.

OK Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. I understand that many, posters included, feel that saying you owe a duty to your country or in this case the European Union is irrelevant or archaic.

This is a quote many decades old:

"... ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country....."

-----------------


As far as the duty the EU has to you as a citizen, you are the best judge whether the EU has meet that obligation.

[Vampyr]

mike777, on 2016-June-24, 15:03, said:

OK Fair enough, thanks for clarifying. I understand that many, posters included, feel that saying you owe a duty to your country or in this case the European Union is irrelevant or archaic.

This is a quote many decades old:

"... ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country....."

-----------------


As far as the duty the EU has to you as a citizen, you are the best judge whether the EU has meet that obligation.

Ummm.... the EU is not a country. And Juncker is no Jack Kennedy.

[mike777]

Vampyr, on 2016-June-24, 15:16, said:

Ummm.... the EU is not a country. And Juncker is no Jack Kennedy.

OK fair enough, hence it seemed at the very least easier to walk away from however you do define and measure the EU. You clearly feel that the duty only runs in one direction. That was my point.

[y66]

Guest post by Tony Blair:

Quote

The political center has lost its power to persuade and its essential means of connection to the people it seeks to represent. Instead, we are seeing a convergence of the far left and far right. The right attacks immigrants while the left rails at bankers, but the spirit of insurgency, the venting of anger at those in power and the addiction to simple, demagogic answers to complex problems are the same for both extremes. Underlying it all is a shared hostility to globalization.

Britain and Europe now face a protracted period of economic and political uncertainty, as the British government tries to negotiate a future outside the single market where half of Britain’s goods and services are traded. These new arrangements — to be clear about the scale of the challenge — must be negotiated with all the other 27 countries, their individual parliaments and the European Parliament. Some governments may be cooperative; others won’t want to make leaving easy for Britain, in order to discourage similar movements.

Britain is a strong country, with a resilient people and energy and creativity in abundance. I don’t doubt Britons’ capacity to come through, whatever the cost. But the stress on the United Kingdom is already apparent.

Voters in Scotland chose by a large margin to remain in Europe, with the result that there are renewed calls for another referendum on Scottish independence. Northern Ireland has benefited from virtually open borders with the Republic of Ireland. That freedom is at risk because the North’s border with the South now becomes the European Union’s border, a potential threat to the Northern Ireland peace process.

If the people — usually a repository of common sense and practicality — do something that appears neither sensible nor practical, then it forces a period of long and hard reflection. My own politics is waking to this new political landscape. The same dangerous impulses are visible, too, in American politics, but the challenges of globalization cannot be met by isolationism or shutting borders.

The center must regain its political traction, rediscover its capacity to analyze the problems we all face and find solutions that rise above the populist anger. If we do not succeed in beating back the far left and far right before they take the nations of Europe on this reckless experiment, it will end the way such rash action always does in history: at best, in disillusion; at worst, in rancorous division. The center must hold.

[helene_t]

A nice survey of attitudes among remain and leave voters: http://lordashcroftp...-voted-and-why/

Maybe not many surprising issues. Leave voters have "Decisions about UK being taken in the UK" as their most frequently cited reason for voting leave, while remain voters are mostly motivated by economic issues. Somewhat depressingly, rights and NHS are largely seen as arguments for leaving rather than staying, and environmental issues are not an issue at all.

Remain voters tend to be more positive towards all kind of social forces, including feminism, environmentalism, social liberalism and the internet. This makes some sense given the difference in age profile.

[Winstonm]

I believe these four gentlement voted for leave.

[Aberlour10]

Winstonm, on 2016-June-25, 15:48, said:

I believe these four gentlement voted for leave.

Basil Fawlty for sure, so sure as Al Bundy would vote for Trump

[hrothgar]

I have seen a number of claims that the referendum is not, in fact, binding.

Rather, an act of parliament is required to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and that hasn't happened yet.
(I've also seen suggestions that this might be a good time for a general election)

[cherdano]

hrothgar, on 2016-June-25, 17:41, said:

I have seen a number of claims that the referendum is not, in fact, binding.

Correct.

Quote

Rather, an act of parliament is required to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and that hasn't happened yet.

There has also been a suggestion that the Scottish parliament would have to approve...

[Lovera]

hrothgar, on 2016-June-25, 17:41, said:

I have seen a number of claims that the referendum is not, in fact, binding.

Rather, an act of parliament is required to invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and that hasn't happened yet.
(I've also seen suggestions that this might be a good time for a general election)

I was waiting it to enter:i think that it could be the "more simply way" (in this cases there are always complexities that have to be considered). A consideration has moved my thinking (as in Scottish referendum): when parts - revealed by polls/previsions - are near on sondages wins "the status quo" or it is more probable that anything change. The "risk" is that the resulting can be althered or that wins the part opposite. This is the why it needs a qualified majority and referendum had to confirm it. Why D. Cameroun has allowed this if had changed his point of view ?

[shyams]

shyams, on 2016-June-23, 21:20, said:

shyams, on 2016-June-23, 18:26, said:

If this goes bad, I blame the Labour Leadership!

This is it. Labour leaders are pointing fingers are each other for the debacle. They are lining up on TV to blame everyone, including their own colleagues.
What a bunch of idiots!

Fingers crossed, today's coup in the Labour team will remove Jeremy Corbyn.

If he had openly said he believes in Brexit, I'd at least respect him for being honest. IMO, he instead resorted to underhand techniques to depress the share of Labour voters choosing "Remain". And for that one act alone, he deserves to be relegated to the footnotes of history.

And BTW, despite being a Londoner and belonging to the "parasite class" (as per fromageGB), I have voted for Labour in most elections. So yes, I have a right to demand Corbyn's firing.

[fromageGB]

Some parasites are beneficial to the organism.
And no, I don't believe merely voting for a party counts. You need to belong. I am not a member, but I do feel he is about the only person in the Westminster block that reflects the member's feelings, although I do agree that he should have stood by his beliefs.

[Cyberyeti]

Labour suffers from what I call Republican syndrome. To win the approval of party members, you have to be so extreme that you alienate the swing voters you need to woo to be electable.

I have little problem with Corbyn's position, he personally doesn't believe in EU membership, but accepts that it's beneficial to many of the people he represents so feels bound to vote for it. His lack of enthusiasm for the campaign is entirely understandable.

[cherdano]

shyams, on 2016-June-24, 08:39, said:

3. Many UK politicians have gone on record to tell all EU citizens in the UK that nothing will change. If I were to guess (and I have no idea whether I'll be right), EU nationals not in minimum wage jobs (i.e. most EU nationals) in the UK will find their lives and livelihood unaffected. You may have to fill a few documents and spend a couple of hours, but your life and your residence status will probably not change.

I bet you have never applied for a VISA or permanent residency in a country that you want to live in/stay in.

It is always a bit of a nerve-wracking process. It is a process in which you have no due process rights, not even a standing to complain if a decision goes against you. There is a lot of paperwork to get right, and in theory your application can get denied just for getting one of the formalities wrong. Well, in the case of the UK, also in practice - the home office is notorious for doing that. And it's not just your own mistakes that could cost you - you also depend on your employer, whose interests don't completely align with yours.

I say all of that from experience of my own (in the US) and friends (in the US or in the UK). Now take into account that most of us (post-docs or permanent employees at highly respected universities, caucasian, a lot of friends to ask who have gone through the process, etc.) are probably among the most priviledged VISA applicants around.

[helene_t]

cherdano, on 2016-June-26, 07:32, said:

I bet you have never applied for a VISA or permanent residency in a country that you want to live in/stay in.

It is always a bit of a nerve-wracking process.

For example:
http://www.independe...k-a6835766.html

If something like that could happen to me after Brexit then I don't think I want to stay in the country.

[1eyedjack]

I feel that if there is one EU politician who is absolutely ecstatic about this result, his name is Jean-Claude Juncker. Going by his public rhetoric he can barely contain his glee at the prospect of getting shot of the country that has with its "veto this" and "veto that" mentality been an irritating thorn in his plans for a single political superstate.Presumably someone else will have to take up that baton now.

[fromageGB]

helene_t, on 2016-June-26, 08:04, said:

For example: ...
If something like that could happen to me after Brexit then I don't think I want to stay in the country.

This seems to have happened before the Brexit situation arose, so not really relevant. After Brexit has happened, we may or may not decide we want more perpetual spongers (if that is the word for history academics).