[thepossum]

I disagree
They are usually very reliable predictors as well as being designed to make money

If they were unreliable wouldn't it lose you money

But obviously in any one off event there are many interesting philosophical and statistical arguments as to what a probability or odds even mean

And I'm not an old school bookie but I'm sure there used to be interesting anomalous situations with odds

I was just commenting by way of support for Nate who's work I have followed for years

I still want to know the probability of another attempt at insurrection

[hrothgar]

thepossum, on 2024-September-18, 05:41, said:

I disagree
They are usually very reliable predictors as well as being designed to make money

If they were unreliable wouldn't it lose you money

But obviously in any one off event there are many interesting philosophical and statistical arguments as to what a probability or odds even mean

And I'm not an old school bookie but I'm sure there used to be interesting anomalous situations with odds

I was just commenting by way of support for Nate who's work I have followed for years

I still want to know the probability of another attempt at insurrection

Once again

These markets are very very thin and there are a number of people actively working to manipulate them.

I'll note in passing that Polymarket is currently owned by Peter Thiel (as is Nate Cohen)
Thiel is hardly a disinterested party in this all...

> If they were unreliable wouldn't it lose you money

1. Was Musk interested in making money when he purchase Twitter?
2. Pump and dump schemes are great ways to make money
3. People are often willing to burn money to signal tribal affiliation

The following chart shows the trading price for Trump's SPAC over time

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DJT

Do you really believe that the share price on any given day signified anything about the fundamentals of the company?

[jillybean]

I am reading Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.
Musk's purchase of Twitter may have been motivated less by profit and more by his belief that Twitter was a "dark collusion between deep state actors conspiring with big tech and legacy media to preserve power". Musk now controls the content moderators.

But, we are getting off topic.