[kenberg]

Winstonm, on 2024-April-30, 09:41, said:

Ken,

No offense intended but I hear you say bad, bad, bad about the Dems but I've yet to see you say what good would look like.

Yes and no. I have raised issues in the past, but yes, this time I was concentratiing more on my frustration with the strategists.

How to get more votes? I believe that there are a lot of people out there who are not that different from my parents and the people in the neighborhood I grew up in. A great many people like that. I think there are votes to be had, but the Democratic Party has to make a case. When I refer to Mr. Perez, I am also thinking of my father. He came to the US in 1910, brought by his older brother who was 16. They went through Ellis Island and off to Wisconsin to meet their father who had left them in Europe about five years earlier. But their father died when my father was 12. His older brother looked after him until he finished eighth grade, then my father went to work.

Political interests? Well, like Mr. Pereez, he belonged to a union and unions strongly advise who to vote for. My parents subscrined to both the morning paper (St. Paul Pioneer Press) and the afternoon paper (the Dispatch) but my father mostly read the comics and worked the crossword. My mother liked reading the horoscope. Important items? Well, when I was 12 my father siad I could go phesant hunting with him and his friend Len, and I shouold be sure to bring my BB gub with me. I knew I could not bring down a pheasant with my BB gun, it seemed silly, so I "forgot" to bring it. Len was carrying a new 12 guage shotgun and figured out how I forgot my BB gun so the next day he brough over an old 16 guage he had in the basement and gave it to me. After that I carried a shotgun when we went hunting. How to get the vote from my father and Len? Not ny forgiving student loans. Not by talking about abortion. I doubt either one had any gender identity issues.


Is the Democratic Party interested in the difficulties of straight white males who earn a decent but not great living working with their hands? If the answer is yes, then they need to do a better job of making that clear.

That's the answer to "what good would look like". I am pretty sure I have said something like this many times before. I hope it is clear that I am not saying that they should proritize the difficulties of straight white working class males, just don't ignore them or treat them like the enemy. There are a lot of votes out there to be had. I really think that a lot of the Trump voters would say "Yeah, Trump is a jerk, yep, he is, but at least he doesn't ignore me." If Democratic stragegists are unaware of this problem they really are numb, as John says. Or they can write off folks like my parents, they appear to be doing so.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2024-April-30, 11:26, said:

Yes and no. I have raised issues in the past, but yes, this time I was concentratiing more on my frustration with the strategists.

How to get more votes? I believe that there are a lot of people out there who are not that different from my parents and the people in the neighborhood I grew up in. A great many people like that. I think there are votes to be had, but the Democratic Party has to make a case. When I refer to Mr. Perez, I am also thinking of my father. He came to the US in 1910, brought by his older brother who was 16. They went through Ellis Island and off to Wisconsin to meet their father who had left them in Europe about five years earlier. But their father died when my father was 12. His older brother looked after him until he finished eighth grade, then my father went to work.

Political interests? Well, like Mr. Pereez, he belonged to a union and unions strongly advise who to vote for. My parents subscrined to both the morning paper (St. Paul Pioneer Press) and the afternoon paper (the Dispatch) but my father mostly read the comics and worked the crossword. My mother liked reading the horoscope. Important items? Well, when I was 12 my father siad I could go phesant hunting with him and his friend Len, and I shouold be sure to bring my BB gub with me. I knew I could not bring down a pheasant with my BB gun, it seemed silly, so I "forgot" to bring it. Len was carrying a new 12 guage shotgun and figured out how I forgot my BB gun so the next day he brough over an old 16 guage he had in the basement and gave it to me. After that I carried a shotgun when we went hunting. How to get the vote from my father and Len? Not ny forgiving student loans. Not by talking about abortion. I doubt either one had any gender identity issues.


Is the Democratic Party interested in the difficulties of straight white males who earn a decent but not great living working with their hands? If the answer is yes, then they need to do a better job of making that clear.

That's the answer to "what good would look like". I am pretty sure I have said something like this many times before. I hope it is clear that I am not saying that they should proritize the difficulties of straight white working class males, just don't ignore them or treat them like the enemy. There are a lot of votes out there to be had. I really think that a lot of the Trump voters would say "Yeah, Trump is a jerk, yep, he is, but at least he doesn't ignore me." If Democratic stragegists are unaware of this problem they really are numb, as John says. Or they can write off folks like my parents, they appear to be doing so.

Thanks. That's clear. I do think you have hit on something-that there is a huge swath of people who believe Trump speaks their language. Here, though, is the problem: how does the Democratic party wade through the racism, mysogeny, bigotry, and religiosity of many of those people without sacrificing their integrity with the Democratic base, and by base I don't mean the ultra liberal but the centrist base who simply believes in fairness for all, not just white Christian men?

[pilowsky]

In 2019, Pew Research asked what are the biggest problems facing America and reported that:
1. Health Care 66%
2. Drug addiction 64%
3. Affordability of college education 55%
4. Federal budget deficit 53%

In 2024, Statista asked what is the most important problem facing America and reports that:
1. Immigration 28%
2. Government 19%
3. Economy 14%
4. Inflation 11%

The percentages aren't as important as the rankings.
It's hard to interpret these polls at the best of times, but it looks like fear and loathing is cutting through more than personal anxiety about wealth.
The second poll suggests the respondents are feeling an existential threat to "their homeland" and the gubbment ain't doin nuttin.

Visceral fear is hard to overcome with convincing argument.

[kenberg]

pilowsky, on 2024-April-30, 18:08, said:

In 2019, Pew Research asked what are the biggest problems facing America and reported that:
1. Health Care 66%
2. Drug addiction 64%
3. Affordability of college education 55%
4. Federal budget deficit 53%

In 2024, Statista asked what is the most important problem facing America and reports that:
1. Immigration 28%
2. Government 19%
3. Economy 14%
4. Inflation 11%

The percentages aren't as important as the rankings.
It's hard to interpret these polls at the best of times, but it looks like fear and loathing is cutting through more than personal anxiety about wealth.
The second poll suggests the respondents are feeling an existential threat to "their homeland" and the gubbment ain't doin nuttin.

Visceral fear is hard to overcome with convincing argument. If I have done this correctly, I

Maybe someone can help me out here. The first lonk below is the one you provided to Statista.

The second link below is also to Statista, and it appears to be the results of a 2018 survey.

In both of these, it seems that immigration is at the top of the list of problems facing the US.


Unless I have done smething wrong (always a possiobility when I do these things), it appears that whether immigration or health care is at the top of the list depends not so much on which year it is and more on who is doing the polling.


https://www.statista...20the%20nation.




https://www.statista...in-us-politics/


I am thinking I must have done something wrong. It's true that Pew and Statista ask the question differently, actually they ask a different question, so that could be it. Still, it seems dramatic.

[pilowsky]

Try again.
Statista 2024 release - https://www.statista...20the%20nation.
Pew 2019 release - https://www.pewresea...ng-the-country/

Both links are correct.

[kenberg]

Juat for amusement: Suppose that everyione in the USA thought that immigration was the third most important problem facing the nation. Then immigration would not show up at all on the statist list because they only track the number of people how list a given problem as most important. But immigration would get a 100% rating on the Pew report because they are looking at what percentage of the population includes an issue as one of the importantant problems facing the nation.

I realize both the links that you provided are correct. I just found a third link that shows that in 2018 Statista had immigration at the top of their list just as it was at the top of their list in 2024. Health care was at the top of the Pew list in 2019 (pretty close to 2018) .

The (2019) Pew list gives a 68% score for healthcare but immigration isn't even in the frst four. The 2018 Statista list has immigration on top. How come? Well, if 21 % think immigration is most important and the other 79% don't think immigration is important at all and so they do not mention it then Pew and Statista both score immigration at 21% but that score leads to different ranking because of the different approach.

[pilowsky]

The problem with all of the social research surveys is in trying to work out how they actually relate to voting intentions on election day.
Maybe that was what Asimov's Hari Seldon was trying to solve.

For some people a single issue (eg abortion) is the only thing that affects their vote.
Politicians don't care about these people. They're rusted on to the hull of the ship of fools.

I'm guessing that the vast majority of voters don't care at all about the things that we care about - which makes it really hard for people like us (old male boomers) to work out what is important to 'most people'.
Far less how to change their minds.

[awm]

Some of these categories could be interpreted in multiple ways. For example, "government" could be Republicans thinking that taxes are too high or there's too much government interference with business. But it could also be Democrats thinking that we need some judicial reforms or that the chaos in the House of Representatives is embarrassing the country. Similarly, I could see "immigration" being a problem because there's no path to citizenship for undocumented people who've been in the country for decades, or because businesses are having trouble finding employees and legal immigration is too difficult. Or it could be the racist thing.

At least "inflation" isn't something many people are clamoring for more of.

[kenberg]

I agree with much of what AWM and Pilowski say above, but I still see it a bit differently.

Let's look at immigration. It is at the top of concerns for both the 2024 and the 2018 statista poll. Yes, as AWM says, the concern might be that there is too much of it, or the concern could be that immigrants have a difficult path ahead of them Probably much more the former than the latter. Let me offer a variant phrasing of this concern.

Far more people wish to immigrate to the US than we are, or rather most of us are, prepared to accept. Isn't that the fundamental problem? Yes, there are moral arguments for admitting a great many immigrants and there is some international agreement on the subject (I am vague about the exact details) but the fact is we are not going to accept anywhere near the number of people who would like to come here. Also, the current result of the is a disaster. People walk or somehow travel from Guatemala or southern Mexico and somehow cross into the US, they are, many of them, caught and are in legal limbo for a prolonged period and then, often, sent back over the border.

Maybe the bi-partisan immigration bill that Trump scuttled would have helped, maybe helped quite a bit, but this problem has been around for a long time without a solution. It's time to solve it. And I think the first step is to acknowledge, very clearly, that there are far more people who wish to come here than we are prepared to accept. Just about every voter in the country would understand that statement and agree with it. Then we move on to just what to do.


I have an analogous plea for acknowledgement of basics when it comes to the student loan problem. Hey, it is called a loan program. A lending program is set up, or we hope is set up, so that mostly the loans will be paid back. Sure, there will be defaults. Car loans, house loans, student loans, there will be defaults. but as I understand the figures, it is thought that maybe a trillion or so of the student loan debt will never be repaid. The basic point is obvious: Whoever the folks were who set up the student loan program, they were either idiots or charlatans, probably both. Step one is to acknowledge this fact. Step two is to substantially change how to lend money in the future.

There are many many variants on this simplicity issue. It is said that people get bullied because of gender identity or sexual preference issues and this bullying is wrong. Of course it is wrong. But bullying is wrong, regardless of the reason it occurs. Start there. Bullying is wrong. I of course have a story, of course one I have told before. When I was 16 someone explained how lucky I was, that Bobby ---- was going to intercept me after school and beat the crap out of me. Bobby was 18, bigger than me, tougher than me. But, this is the lucky part, Bobby's friends pointed out that he was already on probation for auto theft and beating me up might cause him more trouble that it was worth. So he didn't. Why was he going to beat me upI I don't know, I barely knew him but I would not have been the first, he did such things. Beating people up is wrong, that's it, we really do not have to discuss why the person was beaten up.

Back to my parents. They voted. They took the St. Paul morning and evening paper and maybe read some of the news articles. Maybe they listened to the evening news, still 15 minutes and then 15 more of sports news if I remember accurately. Don't expect them to engage in a substantial discussion of issues facing the world. Again I will repeat myself: IN 1952 the Korean war was still going on, Eisenhower said "I will go to Korea '', this was taken to mean "I will solve this'", and my parents, like many others who would normally vote D, liked Ike. "I will go to Korea" Good. Details not needed.

If we want the votes of people who resemble my parents, start with the basics. KISS, as they say.

[kenberg]

PS. I expect to be busy the next few days so you will just have to survive without my brilliant comments.