[Winstonm]

Ever notice the correlation of LoL or some variation of it with the inability to produce a reasoned and reasonable response?

[shyams]

hrothgar, on 2024-April-26, 17:22, said:

> (a) Why does the US$ need to remain the world's reserve currency? Is it your nation's god given right?

So, you concede my basic point then...

You asked for examples of how Russia was acting against US National interests.
I replied. Now you're trying to switch the topic

LOL to your silliness (and belief that you normally debate respectfully)

1. The US economy is around 14x to 17x the size of the Russian one. The idea that Russia can do things in the financial markets that will actually cause the US$ to no longer be reserve currency is laughable.
2. There may be a few other countries that are more capable and appear more interested in doing this to the US$. Including one that is a glaringly obvious one. Yet you could only think of Russia because your media taught you that Russia is the biggest enemy.

Finally, as with your previous post, you presume something inside my argument / post that is neither stated nor logically follows. You do that because you cannot think in a logical manner, more a petulant schoolboy manner. Not just today, often!! What an abysmal failure of logic on show by you --- pathetic.

hrothgar, on 2024-April-26, 17:22, said:

> Is thrashing every person who expresses a contrarian view a requirement?

Absolutely not. There's plenty of people that I can respectfully disagree with
You, you're SPECIAL

In the short bus sort of way...

You are the only one who starts using abusive or sweary language every time your feelings get hurt (OR as the Americans call it "triggered"). You do it not only to me, but to numerous others who post here. "Respectfully disagree" may all those arguments where you do not feel the need to swear.

Quote

1. "it's enough that the Russian regime is full of genocidal monsters who indiscriminately murder their neighbors".

2. since you ask, conspiring to get Trump elected during the 2016 election...That was existential...

3. The concerted influence campaigns to promote insane wedge issues on various social networks...That's sure bad. (Promoting anti vaxxer's for example ...)

1. (a) This is your personal belief and assessment. It is not an argument that stands by itself, and (b) The USA is friends with numerous genocidal monster regimes. The Houthi war (e.g.) created a terrible famine etc. So puhhhhlease, don't get on your high horse to pontificate on morality.

2. LOL. That's sufficient. But let me add 2 points
(a) Did you perchance read about Ukraine doing election interference into the US elections? Or is that exempt because they favoured the "good guys"?
(b) Did you ever hear about your noble administration do election interference into numerous nations in the past decades, incl. in current one (we are talking about maybe 25+ nations)
FYI, neither Russia's interference nor that of any other nation has ever been proven to have made even a slight impact on US election outcomes. Please research a little before you spit out your indoctrination talking points.

3. "Anti vaxxer" was a Russian promoted influence campaign? OH NO! I am aghast (at the stupidity of such an assertion).

[hrothgar]

shyams, on 2024-April-26, 20:35, said:

LOL to your silliness (and belief that you normally debate respectfully)

I'm not following you down your inane little rabbit hole

You posted a bunch of ignorant claims
I pointed this out. Now you're trying to change the subject.

This is part of why I hold you in such deep contempt.

But, once again, for the record, I'm not interested in debate odr discussion with you.

When there is an easy opportunity to point out that your claims are full of *****, I'll take it.
And I'll throw in some insults as well.,

Because you don't deserve anything better, and probably deserve far far worse.

[shyams]

Poor comprehension?

Or perhaps inability to focus on my points due to hurt feelings?

Like: (a) US economy is so much bigger than Russia's etc. but you couldn't comprehend it; like (b) labelling a nation exactly the way your media tells you to because you can only recall their superficial headlines.

Feeble, inane, mediocre. Your strategy seems to be the equivalent of shouting in order to win. When it fails, you shout a bit louder, and resort to basal language.

If I were to guess, I'd say "hurt feelings" is what comes across most in your feeble ramblings.

[kenberg]

johnu, on 2024-April-26, 15:56, said:

The problem is that right fringe media has been pounding away at the false narrative that the economy was better under Trump than under Biden. There were even some that were actually asking the question, "are you better off now than 4 years ago under Trump". Really? they want to go there? Mortuaries were overflowing with Covid victims, unemployment was headed towards Great Depression levels, hundreds of thousands of businesses were about to go out of business, and millions more were barely hanging on, lines at food banks were a mile long, the global economy would nearly shut down, countries closed their borders.

Every country in the world was profoundly affected by Covid, but the US has done better than just about every single industrialized country in making a recovery.

And even today, right fringe media finds every way they can to make headline features that put a negative spin on good employment numbers, and other economic indicators. So what can the Dems do? Do their best to highlight that the Biden economy is actually doing great, that inflation is way down, wages are up, the markets are doing well. And highlight the good things that happened and are happening under Biden, like the infrastructure act that is actually helping to rebuild America's infrastructure.

Largely I agree, although Pilowski is probably right that your characterization of our success with covid is a bit of a stretch. But I still want to push still a bit on my point.

Yes, there is a lot of false information out there. But this does not mean that the Dem leadershio should just say "Oh my, what can we do? People are believing these lies so we will just have to accept defeat and blame it on the stupidity of the electorate." Nobody ever claimed presidential politics is easy or fair.


Mr. Perez, as cited in the article, voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020. The job of the Democratic leadership is to convince him, and others, to vote for Biden agani. How??? Well, I don't know. But I am not top guy in the Democratic political machine, so nobody can expect me to bring this about. In my professional life, I was a mathematician. I wasn't top guy there either. But Andrew Wiles, there is a top guy, proved Fermat's Last Theorem. The Dem leadership could not do that, and Andrew Wiles probably could not get Perez to vote for Biden. Experts do what they are good at. They start this process by not wrting something off as impossible.

Some people will vote for Trump no matter what, just as some will drink the Kool-Aid. But some are open to reason. If the leadership of the Democratic Party really has no idea how they migh get Perez and others like him to vote for Biden then they should give their jobs to someone who can.


There is no way someone like Trump should win, or even have any chance of winning, this election.

[awm]

kenberg, on 2024-April-28, 12:45, said:

Largely I agree, although Pilowski is probably right that your characterization of our success with covid is a bit of a stretch. But I still want to push still a bit on my point.

Yes, there is a lot of false information out there. But this does not mean that the Dem leadershio should just say "Oh my, what can we do? People are believing these lies so we will just have to accept defeat and blame it on the stupidity of the electorate." Nobody ever claimed presidential politics is easy or fair.


Mr. Perez, as cited in the article, voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020. The job of the Democratic leadership is to convince him, and others, to vote for Biden agani. How??? Well, I don't know. But I am not top guy in the Democratic political machine, so nobody can expect me to bring this about. In my professional life, I was a mathematician. I wasn't top guy there either. But Andrew Wiles, there is a top guy, proved Fermat's Last Theorem. The Dem leadership could not do that, and Andrew Wiles probably could not get Perez to vote for Biden. Experts do what they are good at. They start this process by not wrting something off as impossible.

Some people will vote for Trump no matter what, just as some will drink the Kool-Aid. But some are open to reason. If the leadership of the Democratic Party really has no idea how they migh get Perez and others like him to vote for Biden then they should give their jobs to someone who can.


There is no way someone like Trump should win, or even have any chance of winning, this election.

A big part of the problem here is that inflation really upsets people. There are a lot of people who aren't very political, but who still carefully track how much they spend at the grocery store, the gas station, the hairdresser, etc. And when these prices go up significantly they will blame the president (despite the fact that the choices made by the president have relatively little impact on inflation). This particular bout of inflation was primarily caused by the end of lockdown and sudden changes in patterns of demand, along with related supply-chain issues, and it has hit many developed countries. All the leaders of these countries are now quite unpopular (whether right-wing or left-wing).

Arguably the US suppressed this inflation better than many countries, but most voters (especially the largely non-political swing voters) don't perform country-vs-country comparisons like this. It's also true that wages (especially at the bottom end of the income spectrum) have increased faster than inflation, but most voters credit this to their own hard work or the generosity of their bosses or something, not to policies of the administration. Basically nothing Biden can do will make this inflation problem go away, because prices are not going back down (nor would deflation necessarily be good for a variety of reasons). The Democrats just have to hope that Trump's other issues (the legal problems, the incoherence and signs of dementia, the claims that he wants to be a dictator) will be enough to counteract the inflation problem. The Biden campaign will spend a lot of money making sure voters are aware of these issues! But it will be more effective to spend this money closer to the election (voters do not seem to have a particularly long memory for things like this) than to spend it now, and that's why Trump appears to be equal or leading in many current polls.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2024-April-28, 12:45, said:

Largely I agree, although Pilowski is probably right that your characterization of our success with covid is a bit of a stretch. But I still want to push still a bit on my point.

Yes, there is a lot of false information out there. But this does not mean that the Dem leadershio should just say "Oh my, what can we do? People are believing these lies so we will just have to accept defeat and blame it on the stupidity of the electorate." Nobody ever claimed presidential politics is easy or fair.


Mr. Perez, as cited in the article, voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020. The job of the Democratic leadership is to convince him, and others, to vote for Biden agani. How??? Well, I don't know. But I am not top guy in the Democratic political machine, so nobody can expect me to bring this about. In my professional life, I was a mathematician. I wasn't top guy there either. But Andrew Wiles, there is a top guy, proved Fermat's Last Theorem. The Dem leadership could not do that, and Andrew Wiles probably could not get Perez to vote for Biden. Experts do what they are good at. They start this process by not wrting something off as impossible.

Some people will vote for Trump no matter what, just as some will drink the Kool-Aid. But some are open to reason. If the leadership of the Democratic Party really has no idea how they migh get Perez and others like him to vote for Biden then they should give their jobs to someone who can.


There is no way someone like Trump should win, or even have any chance of winning, this election.

I agree and that makes me wonder about the validity of polls showing Trump leading. Either the polls are screwed up or we are.

[hrothgar]

Its really early in the season to be worried about polls

You might want to check out the Hopium chronicles
Pretty good coverage of stuff

[johnu]

shyams, on 2024-April-26, 20:35, said:

2. LOL. That's sufficient. But let me add 2 points
(a) Did you perchance read about Ukraine doing election interference into the US elections? Or is that exempt because they favoured the "good guys"?

OK, that's the MAGAt QOP official line. In fact, not alternative fact, Trump was impeached for blackmailing Ukraine by withholding vital military equipment until Ukraine made up false negative information about Biden. Another fact, VP Biden was just supporting official US (and EU) policy and was not acting rogue.

[johnu]

shyams, on 2024-April-26, 20:35, said:

3. "Anti vaxxer" was a Russian promoted influence campaign? OH NO! I am aghast (at the stupidity of such an assertion).

It's true that MAGAt QOP and anti-Vaxxer were virtually synonymous in the US. It's also true that Russian troll farms were working overtime throughout social media to spread anti-vaxxer propaganda (among other propaganda) to stir up support for Trump.

[johnu]

shyams, on 2024-April-26, 20:35, said:

FYI, neither Russia's interference nor that of any other nation has ever been proven to have made even a slight impact on US election outcomes. Please research a little before you spit out your indoctrination talking points.

Exactly how does somebody "prove" or quantify that Russian election interference influenced US election? 3 states were decided by less than 1% of the total vote in 2016, and another by 1.2% of the total vote. Certainly the leaks had an effect. After a bitter primary, Clinton beat Bernie Sanders. The emails that Russia hacked showed that the DNC favored Clinton, which suppressed support from Sanders supporters. And there was other unflattering emails that were hacked. Yes, there were other external factors, the biggest was Comey, against FBI policy, announcing that Clinton was being investigated over, ironically, emails. Again, no way to determine the exact effect, but Clinton had a big polling lead before all this happened.

[johnu]

kenberg, on 2024-April-28, 12:45, said:

Yes, there is a lot of false information out there. But this does not mean that the Dem leadershio should just say "Oh my, what can we do? People are believing these lies so we will just have to accept defeat and blame it on the stupidity of the electorate." Nobody ever claimed presidential politics is easy or fair.

AFAIK, Biden's election team is trying to emphasize that the economy is actually doing well right now, e.g Bidenomics, not sure whether that approach was best even though it represents the facts, and promoting all their infrastructure projects that are actually meant to rebuild America. For 3 years, they've let Fox Propaganda control the (false) narrative of doom and gloom. For proof, where else in the world would anybody seriously question if we were better off as a nation 4 years ago than today?

The same thing could be done with crime. Murders sharply peaked in the Covid year of 2020 which nobody really paid that much attention to because of the pandemic, but numbers are strongly trending down since the peak of Covid. Fox Propaganda has spent years concentrating on big blue city crime, when in fact, crime and murders in red states are even worse. Right fringe media has controlled the narrative, and distorted the facts too long. One of the problems for Democrats is that left and moderate news media doesn't work for the Democratic party, unlike Fox Propaganda and the like that actively coordinate with the QOP. And by coordinate, I mean act as the official propaganda arm of Trump and the QOP.

Also, the border problem. Trump and the QOP have been fake outraged about immigration, legal or not, since Biden has been president. What happened when there was a bipartisan bill to address the situation? Right, Trump said the solution could wait at least a year, so he told his stooges to sink the bill. So much for the border being an emergency. Maybe a new immigration bill could be brought up at the same time as Trump monthly infrastructure bill that actually never came up in his 4 years in office, or his new health care plan to replace the ACA, which also never came up in a bill for his 4 years in office.

[kenberg]

johnu, on 2024-April-28, 19:38, said:

AFAIK, Biden's election team is trying to emphasize that the economy is actually doing well right now, e.g Bidenomics, not sure whether that approach was best even though it represents the facts, and promoting all their infrastructure projects that are actually meant to rebuild America. For 3 years, they've let Fox Propaganda control the (false) narrative of doom and gloom. For proof, where else in the world would anybody seriously question if we were better off as a nation 4 years ago than today?

The same thing could be done with crime. Murders sharply peaked in the Covid year of 2020 which nobody really paid that much attention to because of the pandemic, but numbers are strongly trending down since the peak of Covid. Fox Propaganda has spent years concentrating on big blue city crime, when in fact, crime and murders in red states are even worse. Right fringe media has controlled the narrative, and distorted the facts too long. One of the problems for Democrats is that left and moderate news media doesn't work for the Democratic party, unlike Fox Propaganda and the like that actively coordinate with the QOP. And by coordinate, I mean act as the official propaganda arm of Trump and the QOP.

Also, the border problem. Trump and the QOP have been fake outraged about immigration, legal or not, since Biden has been president. What happened when there was a bipartisan bill to address the situation? Right, Trump said the solution could wait at least a year, so he told his stooges to sink the bill. So much for the border being an emergency. Maybe a new immigration bill could be brought up at the same time as Trump monthly infrastructure bill that actually never came up in his 4 years in office, or his new health care plan to replace the ACA, which also never came up in a bill for his 4 years in office.

But still Mr. Perez voted for Biden in 2020 and now expects to vote for Trump in 2024.

You say "For 3 years, they've let Fox Propaganda control the (false) narrative of doom and gloom." If we go with that, it seems that you might be agreeing with me that the Dem leadership is incompetent.

How do people draw their own conclusions? Here is an example frm my youth, not ecnomic, not political, but an example.
In my Senior year in high school we all took the Kuder Preference Test. This was supposed to help us choose a career. The conclusion, from the test, was that my best choices were to be an aviator or a farmer. Mathematics was not at all recommended, it was clear from the test results that this was not right for me. Ok. I needed glasses for everyday life and at least back then that ruled out becoming a pilot, and nothing else in aviation appealed to me. I had spent some time one summer working on my cousin's farm and I was certain that I did not want to do that. How about math? At the end of my Junior year when we were to turn in our textbooks I reported my math textbook was lost. I wanted to keep it so I could read on my own the chapters that we had not covered. I also attended free classesin math on Saturday mornings at the nearby niversity campus and often went therre in the evenings to here public lectures by physicists on various topics. It is hardly surprising that I ignored the advice from the Kuder test.

Back now to Mr. Perez. He hears that the government will be forgiving student debt, as much as they possibly can. This will take a lot of money. He does not have student loan debt. He drives a car, as do I, and the local price of gas is about $3.80 a gallon. He notes that. He buys groceries, same as I do,. The local grocery has a point system where you get something "free" if you get enough points. Sometimes there is a deal that if you spend more than $200 you get extra points. It has been a long time since we spent less that $200 on a grocery trip. Same for Perez, I suppose. So he draws his conclusions.

I realize that the inflation rate is down. And I realize the Federal Reserve keeps being surprised at how stubborn inflation seems to be. And housing prices are up. My situation is pretty good, but Perez does not feel his situation is pretty good.I really hope that AWM is right and that the Dems will be succesful in explaining to Mr. Perez, as we reach November, why he should choose Biden. So far, I think they have been about as effective in explaining their case as the Kuder test was in helping me choose a career.

[Winstonm]

hrothgar, on 2024-April-28, 16:06, said:

Its really early in the season to be worried about polls

You might want to check out the Hopium chronicles
Pretty good coverage of stuff

Thanks.

[hrothgar]

kenberg, on 2024-April-29, 07:51, said:

But still Mr. Perez voted for Biden in 2020 and now expects to vote for Trump in 2024. [/size]

I don't care about isolated individuals who show up in soft "human interest" type pieces.

I could give a long explanation about inflation in the US.
I could point out that the inflationary cycle is largely driven by supply shocks and the lagged impact of supply shock.

You know what drove US inflation over the past few months? Automobile insurance.
You know why auto insurance prices have exploded? Auto prices went up a couple years back and now the insurance needs to cover the cost of a much more expensive vehicle.

I could point out the the inflation that the US is experiencing is significantly less than that in the rest of the world.

But none of this would actually matter, because Mr Perez doesn't care about facts
Mr Perez cares about the vibes

With luck, abortion regulations will convince Mr Perez
Or perhaps he will die

However, I suspect that there are more fruitful people to target

[johnu]

kenberg, on 2024-April-29, 07:51, said:

You say "For 3 years, they've let Fox Propaganda control the (false) narrative of doom and gloom." If we go with that, it seems that you might be agreeing with me that the Dem leadership is incompetent.

Maybe not incompetent, but maybe just numbed by the constant barrage of negative spin from Fox Propaganda and other right fringe media. And they definitely underestimated the effect of all the Fox and QOP gaslighting. I think they thought that nobody could believe a lot of the stuff coming out and didn't actively try to stamp it out, naively thinking they could get their own message out. Biden and Democratic leadership seem to finally have figured out that wasn't a winning strategy since the primary season started.

You are also ignoring the fact that the Democrats don't own any major TV networks or other media, while Fox, OAN, Newsmax, etc act in coordination with Trump and the QOP. Even things like Twitter, now X, has turned hard right after Elon Musk purchased it as Elon himself has turned far right. And you have probably seen how the National Inquirer was used as Trump's private attack media in the NY court case. Yes, there are left leaning media, but they also mostly close to the middle, and will show negative news for Biden and the Democrats. Unlike right wing media, centrist media will cover the news and not put ridiculous spin and excuses on bad news for Democrats.

Why is that important? Because the constant negative drone from right fringe media has convinced people that America is sinking and ready to implode. An awful lot of people when asked will say how terrible the economy is, but when asked follow up questions reveal that things are actually going well for them, or at least okay. Certainly there are people on the margins who are very affected by higher prices. The question for them is what is Trump going to do to help them. Basically, Trump has no answer, and no plans. Maybe Trump will send them a free ticket to one of his rallies... And yes, inflation was bad for a year, and gas prices peaked for a while, but right fringe media has convinced a lot of them that it was solely due to the Democrats and Biden, when in fact, there are a lot of global reasons unrelated to the US president. And 50-60% of the post covid high inflation was due to corporate profits, those same corporations who got huge tax giveaways from Trump and who are hoping to reelect Trump so they can get even more tax giveaways. If only the Democrats had a dominant media company to push that message 24/7/365.

[kenberg]

I'll be (sorta) brief.

hrothgar:Mr Perez is an isolated individual just as I am an isolated individul I am guessing that there are quite a number of people, isolated or not, out there who voted for Biden in 2020 and are thinking of voting for Trump in 2024.

johnu: Ok, mayne numb rather than incompetent, although numbness is probably a form of incompetence.

Maybe the Democratic Party strategists will convince enough voters to vote for Biden. I would like them to think about how to do that rather than think about why losing the election would not be their fault. "Not our fault that we were numb."

[hrothgar]

> Maybe the Democratic Party strategists will convince enough voters to vote for Biden. I
> would like them to think about how to do that rather than think about why losing the
> election would not be their fault.

What great advice Ken!
Democratic strategists should try to win the election!
Let's rush this down to K street right now.

For what its worth

1. I very much believe that Democratic strategists are trying to win the election
2. I trust them to make a decision where or not its worth investing time / effort at trying to convince Perez to change his vote as opposed to any number of other things

And second hand reporting on lazy human interest journalism isn't likely to change my mind.

[kenberg]

hrothgar, on 2024-April-30, 06:16, said:

> Maybe the Democratic Party strategists will convince enough voters to vote for Biden. I
> would like them to think about how to do that rather than think about why losing the
> election would not be their fault.

What great advice Ken!
Democratic strategists should try to win the election!
Let's rush this down to K street right now.

For what its worth

1. I very much believe that Democratic strategists are trying to win the election
2. I trust them to make a decision where or not its worth investing time / effort at trying to convince Perez to change his vote as opposed to any number of other things

And second hand reporting on lazy human interest journalism isn't likely to change my mind.

"2. I trust them to make a decision where or not its worth investing time / effort at trying to convince Perez to change his vote as opposed to any number of other things" is an excellent summary of our different way f seeing things. I can hope they know what they are doing, but ... Well, let's hope. And that is a decent summary of my thinking.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2024-April-29, 19:55, said:

I'll be (sorta) brief.

hrothgar: Mr Perez is an isolated individual just as I am an isolated individul I am guessing that there are quite a number of people, isolated or not, out there who voted for Biden in 2020 and are thinking of voting for Trump in 2024.

johnu: Ok, mayne numb rather than incompetent, although numbness is probably a form of incompetence.

Maybe the Democratic Party strategists will convince enough voters to vote for Biden. I would like them to think about how to do that rather than think about why losing the election would not be their fault. "Not our fault that we were numb."

Ken,

No offense intended but I hear you say bad, bad, bad about the Dems but I've yet to see you say what good would look like.