WASHINGTON—Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump reached double-digits this month as Mr. Trump’s approval rating declined amid widespread disagreement with his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
Less than four months before the November election, 51% of voters said they would vote for Mr. Biden if the election were held today, with 40% backing Mr. Trump. Mr. Biden’s lead over the president rose to 11 percentage points from 7 percentage points last month, as both candidates saw growth in the share of voters who view them very negatively.
But Mr. Trump maintained the backing of a majority of voters on the economy, with 54% approving of his handling of the matter, a record high in the poll. The U.S. economy officially entered a recession in February after the pandemic forced wide swaths of the economy to shut down, triggering millions of job losses. While activity showed signs of rebounding in May, economists expect the outlook could deteriorate as a wave of new cases forces states to pause or reverse reopening plans.
The president’s overall job-approval rating dropped 3 percentage points over the last month. Forty-two percent of voters approved of Mr. Trump’s performance, with 56% disapproving—his lowest job-approval rating since April 2018.
Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who worked on the survey, said Mr. Trump faced the most challenging environment for an incumbent since Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968. Mr. Carter lost and Mr. Johnson decided not to run for reelection.
“President Trump has hit the trifecta in the misery market. The three key indicators—job rating, personal feelings, attitudes on re-election—are all deeply submerged underwater,” Mr. Hart said. “They represent the best measure of the standing and political strength of an incumbent president.”
The coronavirus crisis continued to drag on Mr. Trump’s chances of winning reelection, with 37% of voters approving of his handling of the continuing outbreak and 59% disapproving. The number of voters who approve of Mr. Trump’s response to the pandemic has steadily dropped, falling 6 percentage points since last month and 8 percentage points since March.
More than 136,000 people in the U.S. have died as a result of the virus and more than 3.4 million people have been infected, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. As states grapple with how and when to safely reopen, coronavirus cases are increasing across the country, with experts raising alarms about a resurgence of the illness.
Mr. Trump and his top advisers have often played down the threat, saying that the country is recovering from the pandemic. They have also emphasized the importance of reopening the economy.
By more than a 2-to-1 margin, voters said they are more likely to vote for a candidate who is more focused on stopping the spread of the virus than on reopening businesses. Nearly three-quarters of voters said they always wear a mask while shopping, working or when they’re around people outside their homes, an 11-percentage-point increase from last month. The share of Trump supporters who say they always wear masks climbed 15 points since June, from 39% to 54%.
Overall, nearly three-quarters of voters, 72%, said they believed the country was on the wrong track.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Mr. Hart and fellow Democrat Jeff Horwitt, said Mr. Trump’s path toward winning reelection is narrowing.
“There would have to be a sea change in these numbers to say how you would project that Trump would be winning a national vote,” he said, adding that the president could focus on winning the electoral college even if he loses the popular vote, as he did in 2016.
Though a narrow majority of voters support Mr. Biden for president, fewer—47%—say they want a Democratic-controlled Congress, down from 51% in June. Forty-three percent of voters say they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress.
Voters are paying close attention to politics, with 77% saying they are highly interested in the election. Voter interest, which typically jumps in September, has never been this high this far from an election.
Messrs. Trump and Biden are both facing low enthusiasm from voters, many of whom viewed them negatively and expressed discomfort with their candidacies. Forty-eight percent of voters viewed Mr. Trump very negatively, with another 6% viewing him somewhat negatively. Just over half of voters, 52%, said they were very uncomfortable with Mr. Trump.
It was the president’s highest very-negative number since January 2018, when the government shut down amid a dispute between Mr. Trump and Congress over immigration and the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Meanwhile, one-third of voters have a very negative view of Mr. Biden, the highest such level the former vice president ever recorded in the poll. Another 13% have a somewhat negative view of him. Thirty-eight percent said they were very uncomfortable with Mr. Biden’s candidacy.
Voters signaled they are more enthusiastic about Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden, though neither candidate received high marks on that front. Just 14% of voters said they were enthusiastic about Mr. Biden compared with 23% who said the same about the president.
But Mr. Biden is holding on to the support of more members of his party than Mr. Trump is of his. Ninety-two percent of Democrats back the former vice president, while 84% of Republicans say they will vote for the president. Independents narrowly sided with Mr. Biden, 39% to 35%.
Voters appear to be still making up their minds about Mr. Trump’s decision last week to commute the sentence of Roger Stone, his longtime friend and political adviser who was convicted of making false statements, witness tampering and trying to impede a congressional investigation into Russian election interference. Nearly half of voters, 47%, said they hadn’t heard enough about the matter to give an opinion, while 16% supported the president’s decision and 36% opposed it.
The Journal/NBC News poll surveyed 900 registered voters from July 9 through July 12. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.27 percentage points.
So 37% of US voters are also lunatics? That feels high to me.