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Playing Standard, 15-17 NT & better minor,
I believe the chance of a 1♣ opener having 4+ clubs is about 85%. Right?
What is the figure when responder has four clubs?
So the auction goes:
1♣ - (pass or bid) - ?
Responder has four trumps, no major to show and is thinking of raising to 2♣ or 3♣.
What is the chance of an 8+ card fit?
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Raising 1C with 4 trumps
#1
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Posted 2015-February-19, 05:19
#2
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Posted 2015-February-19, 05:48
Obviously the fact that we have 4 clubs increases the chance that partner dos not hold length, but there is another huge factor at work - RHO's pass over 1♣.
Particularly if we are very weak, then RHO's pass over 1♣ becomes the equivalent of the dog that didn't bark. If partner had long clubs, the chances of RHO not being able to overcall are pretty small, so the profile of hands becomes skewed towards partner holding a balanced hand with relatively short clubs.
Particularly if we are very weak, then RHO's pass over 1♣ becomes the equivalent of the dog that didn't bark. If partner had long clubs, the chances of RHO not being able to overcall are pretty small, so the profile of hands becomes skewed towards partner holding a balanced hand with relatively short clubs.
#3
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Posted 2015-February-19, 06:36
The stats depend on your partnership agreements as to what you open when you are 3-3 or 4-4 in the minors.
#4
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Posted 2015-February-19, 07:22
Not to be dismissed also is the possibility of agreeing that a 1N response shows 4 card Club support. That consults opener on whether or not to retreat, and removes broadly the same amount of bidding space.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. m
s
t
r-m
nd
ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. m
str-mnding) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees."Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
#5
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Posted 2015-February-19, 07:32
1eyedjack, on 2015-February-19, 07:22, said:
Not to be dismissed also is the possibility of agreeing that a 1N response shows 4 card Club support. That consults opener on whether or not to retreat, and removes broadly the same amount of bidding space.
This is, of course, a very common old-fashioned understanding. If responder shows four of any of ♦♥♠, then responding NT must be showing four ♣. If it is your plan to raise ♣ with only four of them, then it should be your partnership understanding that responding NT shows four ♦; otherwise, you'd never bid NT over a 1♣ opening.
#6
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Posted 2015-February-21, 08:47
Raising clubs on four implies there is a lower bid that is put to some artificial use, as Bbradley points out. It could be that 1♦ shows 5, or 1♦ shows a 4 card major while 1M shows 5, but without anything unusual, I would have thought raising clubs shows 5.
#7
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Posted 2015-February-21, 12:32
About 71% for 8+ cards fit in clubs.
But I would only raise with 4 card support after overcall or t/o double. But the raise with 4 feels a routine action in a competitive auction.
But I would only raise with 4 card support after overcall or t/o double. But the raise with 4 feels a routine action in a competitive auction.
Spoiler
#8
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Posted 2015-February-21, 13:14
suokko, on 2015-February-21, 12:32, said:
About 71% for 8+ cards fit in clubs.
But I would only raise with 4 card support after overcall or t/o double. But the raise with 4 feels a routine action in a competitive auction.
But I would only raise with 4 card support after overcall or t/o double. But the raise with 4 feels a routine action in a competitive auction.
Spoiler
I'm not really sure how to read the code, but are you stipulating that Opener would open 1♣ with (32)44 shape (with appropriate HCP)?
#9
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Posted 2015-February-21, 15:10
Bbradley62, on 2015-February-21, 13:14, said:
I'm not really sure how to read the code, but are you stipulating that Opener would open 1♣ with (32)44 shape (with appropriate HCP)?
No. diamonds(north) < 4
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