[Wackojack]

---

1NT shows 15-17
It is a club MP evening and you are new to this club. You are playing at the TD's table. The jump to 6♣ was made by the partner of the TD who you believe to be an experienced player. As west what is your next bid?

[mgoetze]

I'll double. If he has a heart singleton to go along with his spade void, well, congrats to him, but I feel that's a less than 50% case.

[Jinksy]

Initially wrote 'pass, wtp?' Now I think double. If they make, we're getting a terrible score anyway, and it's possible P would have bid a distributional game if they'd bid a level or two lower.

[PhilKing]

This is a recurring theme - there is basically no upside to doubling. The two main cases are:

a) They have been dealt a twelve trick hand.

b) They don't have their bid, and are not saved by a useful dummy.

In case a) doubling will ensure a near bottom, but I just do not see why passing will get us a bad board. We have absolutely no reason to doubt that the player who jumped to 6♣ is looking at a twelve trick hand (he has, after all, bid a slam over a third in hand strong no trump), and if lots of muppets are doubling on the basis of some completely irrelevant major-suit cards, we will get a good score. In case b) we get a good score even if we do not double.

The real problem is whether to bid 6♠ - double is just crackers.

[the hog]

As this is mps, the pass is obvious. Who knows what the hands are. If slam is on,other tables may face the same problem. The argument in the post above is silly of course. The slam is hardly likely to go more than 2 off. Even 500 is not compensation for 620.

[Jinksy]

What about case c) - they have their bid and it's a decent preempt, eg x x AKQJTxxxx KQ? Then if lots of non-muppets are non-doubling, we get a good score. That seems more likely than N having - x AKQJxxxxx AKQ to me.

I agree with the general principle that passing on such auctions is usually right, but we're allowed to use probabilistic reasoning. The a-priori odds against N having a hand that can make in this case are so tiny that I don't think the evidence of his bid is obviously enough to make it likely.

[whereagles]

Since pard didn't bid anything over it, 6♣ was probably bid to make!!!

Pass/dbl.. just toss a coin. You're fixed anyway lol.

[eagles123]

Seems like an obvious pass

[rmnka447]

Well, it doesn't seem like we're headed towards a par result.

I'm staying fixed. Pass!!

[PhilKing]

 Jinksy, on 2014-December-20, 08:35, said:

What about case c) - they have their bid and it's a decent preempt, eg x x AKQJTxxxx KQ? Then if lots of non-muppets are non-doubling, we get a good score. That seems more likely than N having - x AKQJxxxxx AKQ to me.

I agree with the general principle that passing on such auctions is usually right, but we're allowed to use probabilistic reasoning. The a-priori odds against N having a hand that can make in this case are so tiny that I don't think the evidence of his bid is obviously enough to make it likely.

Unless the guy is insane, he would bid 5♣(I would double 1NT, but that's just me) - it's not as if we are likely to outbid him - we opened 1NT third in hand.

So I attach rather more significance to the fact he bid 6♣. And he can't just pyche - there is too much chance we double him with, say, three aces, or that we just can't make a game. And he doesn't even know us - from his pov, we could just be a point-count muppet, so I just don't think he is putting his head on the block.

[Cthulhu D]

5422 is a suit shape and I suspect it makes sense to open 1S, but if it doesn't make sense for dbl to be penalties here, surely there is some vig in dbling anyway because we have such a fine spade suit?

[Jinksy]

 PhilKing, on 2014-December-20, 09:20, said:

Unless the guy is insane, he would bid 5♣(I would double 1NT, but that's just me) - it's not as if we are likely to outbid him - we opened 1NT third in hand.

So I attach rather more significance to the fact he bid 6♣. And he can't just pyche - there is too much chance we double him with, say, three aces, or that we just can't make a game. And he doesn't even know us - from his pov, we could just be a point-count muppet, so I just don't think he is putting his head on the block.

I agree with most of this, but I still don't think it changes the probabilities enough to (obviously) outweigh the colossal unlikeliness of the explanation of 'N is making in hand'. Suppose one had a bid that promised a 13-card spade suit. If any player of any skill bid that, you'd hopefully assume that they'd glitched, and react accordingly. While the probability of N having a making hand here is obviously far higher, I don't think it's enough so that I rate it as high enough a priori not to still think 'north glitched' is a better explanation.

(ETA - all this is heavily skewed by the fact that it's appeared here, unfortunately, which I'd guess makes it a lot more likely that someone doubled and it didn't work out so well)

[MrAce]

deleted

[Winstonm]

He sounds 0148 or 0139, and I have no reason to think he cannot make his contract. I pass.

[the hog]

 Cthulhu D, on 2014-December-20, 09:52, said:

5422 is a suit shape and I suspect it makes sense to open 1S, but if it doesn't make sense for dbl to be penalties here, surely there is some vig in dbling anyway because we have such a fine spade suit

Oh I see. You are doubling 6C as a takeout and showing spades and partner is supposed to work that out. Your posts areg etting even more amusing. 😂

[mikeh]

The odds seem high to me that LHO has 12 tricks. If he held fewer he'd bid 5♣ since it would be extremely unusual for responder to be able to bid a suit at the 5 level. So bidding 6 is silly unless one has expectations of making it. And if he doesn't have his bid then we're doing ok. We aren't favourite to make anything. Partner is a passed hand and we have a lot of losers. Phil is correct in his description of double.

[Cthulhu D]

 the hog, on 2014-December-20, 17:57, said:

Oh I see. You are doubling 6C as a takeout and showing spades and partner is supposed to work that out. Your posts are getting even more amusing. ��

If double isn't penalties, what is it? Is it just DNE? Does it depend on if partner is a fan of offshape NT openings, and what your preemptive openings are?

[nekthen]

Thanks to the scoring 6♣ -3 is better than 5♣ dbl -2. So if we have game in ♠ maybe this is a clever move especially if 5♠ is also making. However, we opened 1N not 1♠ so this scenario becomes even less likely..

I am with the passers. I look forward to seeing it make and hearing all the mutterings of "but I had 15 points p" or "but I had 2 aces p"

Opp might be expecting to lose a club so can't afford to pass. If his clubs are solid, he would do better to pass unless he can see 12 tricks.

Note double of 1N would be a mistake as we shall surely run to somewhere and it may not be penalty anyway.

In summary,opp either has his bid or has made a very clever advance sacrifice that scores well because we won't double.. However, partner did not double. Would your p double with a certain club trick?

Either way I pass

[the hog]

 nekthen, on 2014-December-21, 03:04, said:

Thanks to the scoring 6♣ -3 is better than 5♣ dbl -2. So if we have game in ♠ maybe this is a clever move especially if 5♠ is also making. However, we opened 1N not 1♠ so this scenario becomes even less likely..

I am with the passers. I look forward to seeing it make and hearing all the mutterings of "but I had 15 points p" or "but I had 2 aces p"

Opp might be expecting to lose a club so can't afford to pass. If his clubs are solid, he would do better to pass unless he can see 12 tricks.

Note double would be a mistake as we shall surely run to somewhere and it may not be penalty anyway.

In summary,opp either has his bid or has made a very clever advance sacrifice that scores well because we won't double.. However, partner did not double. Would your p double with a certain club trick?

Either way I pass

Since when is +800 a worse score than 620? Maths 101.

[nekthen]

 the hog, on 2014-December-21, 04:15, said:

Since when is +800 a worse score than 620? Maths 101.

6♣ -3 is 300 read, understand, and then you can comment