[kgr]

IMPs

---

Lead: ♣2; 3th/5th

Bidding and play are not important for me. I have a more theoretical question about the play of the ♦ suit for one looser:
- 50/50 to play LHO for single x (T/9) or single H (K/Q)
=>
- Is there - after the bidding and before the lead - a higher probability that honours are distributed?
A team mate says: "Because opps did not bid it is more likely that points are distributed. Therefore it is more likely here that Diamonds honours are not together."
...Is this true? If you would see both hands after the bidding and before the lead, would the above make it clearly percentage to play the Ace iso finesse the J?
- After the lead it becomes more likely that LHO has singleton D Q or K. I would think that this is a more important indication then the previous one.

---

Lead: ♣2; 3th/5th
=> How would you play the diamonds now?

[MrAce]

Small to the J wins when


KQT
KQ9

6.22+6.22=12.44

Cashing A and if K/Q drops from off side coming to hand and playing back towards J wins when

KT9-Q
QT9-K

6.22+6.22=14.44

Same, so if there is a ruff danger, better to start with A

But on this hand if diamonds are 1-3 3-1, say you cashed A and then came to hand and played another dia towards J, defenders take it and play 3rd dia. Which disables you from ruffing 2 hearts or your 4th club. So you need a little more than just trying to lose only 1 dia. And there are two club 2 in this deck

[PhilKing]

It really depends whether you think RHO is more likely to play the T or the 9 from HT9.

Since declarer's hand is closed and the suit combination is not that well known, I will play the ♦J if East follows with the ten and the ♦A if he follows with the nine.

[navahak]

Depends on your opponents!

If you are playing against Italians you can be quite sure that failure to overcall after 1 diamond denies 5 spades. That kind of information affects probabilities.

OF course similarly the lead of bid ans supported suit. Playing for singleton 9/T can cost the contract with 2-2 trumps and club ruff. Defender would be very likely to lead a club from 5 card suit holding doubleton king of diamonds. (in addition to your mentioned singleton honor) That makes the equal chance not so equal any more because of making chances after alternative lines aren't same.

There is also a very important part of question not asked. How likely it is that one makes the contract if trumps 3-1 with the club lead indicating them splitting badly?
3♣+2♥+1♠+4♦=10. That means to heart ruffs or playing for heart+club squeeze.

There is also chance that KQx onside would split.

But not biding implying split honors is not true here. Bidding over 1 diamond is done with many more hands based on values than over 2 clubs.

[PhilKing]

Chance of clubs 5-1 trumps everything. If you play the jack, you can go off when trumps are 2-2.

So ace is definitely best.

[Aardv]

What's the vulnerability? How aggressive are opponents?

The lead (I'll assume it's the three of clubs) is worth taking a look at. Why would LHO want to lead a suit we've both bid from a 3-card holding? More likely he's got 5 clubs and a possible trump entry and hopes to give his partner a club ruff. In that case I want to play ace of diamonds on the first round. (Or he could have a singleton club, when I'm not going to worry about his having a singleton diamond too.)

I'll play low from dummy and have a look at RHO's club. If he plays the 10 I think LHO's hand is KJxx Jxx K J9xxx. I'll cash the ace of diamonds, dropping the king, and now have to take two heart ruffs in dummy before playing a second diamond. If I'm right about the club lie the ruffs are fairly likely to stand up.

[Aardv]

Which means that LHO could beat me by dropping the king from KJxx Jx K9 J9xxx. I'll buy him a drink.

[nige1]

kgr, on 2014-November-05, 05:34, said:

IMPs. Lead: ♣2; 3th/5th. Bidding and play are not important for me. I have a more theoretical question about the play of the ♦ suit for one loser [SNIP]

---

Win ♣Q to start ♦ from dummy. Holding ♦KQT, ♦KQ9, or ♦KQT9, RHO will sometimes split. If RHO plays low, then follow Mr Ace's eponymous advice.

[whereagles]

Didn't check Timo's figures, but they seem right. Also, I'm not 100% convinced the lead is a singleton. LHO must lead something, and if he has say ♠Kxxx he might prefer a club lead from xxx.


The deal is complicated and I'm not sure which plan has the better odds. Without giving the deal much thought, I'd say one has two choices:

1. Play diamonds for 1 loser and hope for clubs 3-3 or a dbl squeeze.
2. Cash two diamonds and claim if they're 2-2.

Since line 2 is too simple, I'd pick line 1, just for style reasons