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IMPs. Your lead.
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Bird and Anthias don't really cover this one...
#1
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Posted 2014-October-05, 13:55
IMPs. Your lead.
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
#2
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Posted 2014-October-05, 14:02
HJ seems obvious. I could imagine Bird-Anthias preferring a spade if your pips were roughly equal in both suits, but as it is, a heart is much less likely to cost a trick in the suit.
#3
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Posted 2014-October-05, 14:17
sry but i think anyone that gets this right is psychic
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
#4
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Posted 2014-October-05, 14:48
Maybe, but I've not seen a sim done on this type of hand, so I can believe it would favour the lead it actually needed.
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
#5
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Posted 2014-October-05, 15:41
Find partners suit with ♦3 ? No, ok then ♥J.
#6
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Posted 2014-October-05, 16:35
hmmm.. heart seems to edge out spades. Couple scenarios where it wins.
#7
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Posted 2014-October-05, 17:58
Rather crude, but I defined RHO as 15-17 bal, including any 5332, and LHO as 10-15 with no 4 card major. Sure, dummy could have a 4 card major, but let's see.
Selection of 10000 qualifying hands out of 443120 deals:
Lead, %Set, expected no. of tricks:
JH= 9.10%, 2.50
8H= 8.23%, 2.41
2H= 8.20%, 2.41
JS= 7.28%, 2.46
5S= 6.91%, 2.41
4C= 4.80%, 2.29
4D= 4.73%, 2.17
9D= 4.62%, 2.14
QD= 3.78%, 2.02
Selection of 10000 qualifying hands out of 443120 deals:
Lead, %Set, expected no. of tricks:
JH= 9.10%, 2.50
8H= 8.23%, 2.41
2H= 8.20%, 2.41
JS= 7.28%, 2.46
5S= 6.91%, 2.41
4C= 4.80%, 2.29
4D= 4.73%, 2.17
9D= 4.62%, 2.14
QD= 3.78%, 2.02
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. m
s
t
r-m
nd
ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. m
str-mnding) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees."Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"
"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
#8
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Posted 2014-October-05, 18:11
You want a sim, OK, here's a sim.
1000 deals, opener 15-17 balanced or semibalanced, responder 9-13 no 4CM unless 4333. (Yes, this leaves in a few 3163s etc that would have done something else.)
With or without a sim, any non-jack lead here is one part psychic and two parts psychotic. It is not remotely close, whichever measure you use to decide what lead is best:
Card , #deals on which par is still possible after that lead, #deals on which 3NT can be set after that lead, #tricks lost vs. best lead, IMPs lost vs. best lead:
♠J: 670 150 -516 -1566
♠4: 637 138 -581 -1728
♥J: 714 182 -449 -1224
♥8: 633 164 -562 -1499
♥2: 630 164 -568 -1504
♦Q: 406 76 -1053 -2660
♦9: 463 91 -927 -2428
♦4: 489 95 -887 -2352
♣4: 551 110 -702 -2087
With 1000 replications, margin of error (95% confidence interval) is about ±30 on the first column, ±20 on the second, ±50 on the third, ±100 on the fourth. More than enough to resolve the H > S > C > D pattern.
Edit: I see 1eyedjack got a head start on me. I am also happy to see we are reporting the same qualitative results despite small differences in our constraints and in what we chose to count.I report more frequent sets, of course, since my responder was 9-13 rather than 10-15.
1000 deals, opener 15-17 balanced or semibalanced, responder 9-13 no 4CM unless 4333. (Yes, this leaves in a few 3163s etc that would have done something else.)
With or without a sim, any non-jack lead here is one part psychic and two parts psychotic. It is not remotely close, whichever measure you use to decide what lead is best:
Card , #deals on which par is still possible after that lead, #deals on which 3NT can be set after that lead, #tricks lost vs. best lead, IMPs lost vs. best lead:
♠J: 670 150 -516 -1566
♠4: 637 138 -581 -1728
♥J: 714 182 -449 -1224
♥8: 633 164 -562 -1499
♥2: 630 164 -568 -1504
♦Q: 406 76 -1053 -2660
♦9: 463 91 -927 -2428
♦4: 489 95 -887 -2352
♣4: 551 110 -702 -2087
With 1000 replications, margin of error (95% confidence interval) is about ±30 on the first column, ±20 on the second, ±50 on the third, ±100 on the fourth. More than enough to resolve the H > S > C > D pattern.
Edit: I see 1eyedjack got a head start on me. I am also happy to see we are reporting the same qualitative results despite small differences in our constraints and in what we chose to count.I report more frequent sets, of course, since my responder was 9-13 rather than 10-15.
#9
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Posted 2014-October-06, 01:15
Thanks both. Right you are, Eagles.
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
#10
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Posted 2014-October-07, 07:10
Jinksy, on 2014-October-06, 01:15, said:
Thanks both. Right you are, Eagles.
What is he right about? To be psychic in order to get this right? 20 people voted for ♥ J and in the sim heart J came out on top. Or more likely I did not understand what you meant or which eagles you referred to.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"
"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."
#11
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Posted 2014-October-07, 11:06
MrAce, on 2014-October-07, 07:10, said:
What is he right about? To be psychic in order to get this right? 20 people voted for ♥ J and in the sim heart J came out on top. Or more likely I did not understand what you meant or which eagles you referred to.
Eagles123 obviously knows the whole hand. I'm guessing a diamond was required
#12
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Posted 2014-October-07, 11:25
^ This. P had AKJxx of ♦s, declarer had 9 (or maybe 10) top tricks on any other lead.
The reason I thought the sim might conceivably favour a D is in the chapter on leading from very weak hands, the theme seems to be 'lead from a shorter major, the worse your hand is'. If you don't have a short major, that becomes hard advice to follow.
The reason I thought the sim might conceivably favour a D is in the chapter on leading from very weak hands, the theme seems to be 'lead from a shorter major, the worse your hand is'. If you don't have a short major, that becomes hard advice to follow.
The "4♥ is a transfer to 4♠" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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