Posted 2014-September-11, 09:41
There are several lines of play available and I think it almost impossible (for people other than Rosenberg, Rodwell, etc) to calculate the odds at the table.
I do infer that LHO probably lacks the trump Q on the lead: this isn't a strong inference.
That doesn't answer much. For example, I could duck in dummy, expecting to lose and hoping for a trump back, and then plan on setting up diamonds....but it must be very unlikely that both reds are 3-3, and I think I need that to make.
So here's what I think I would do at the table.
Win the heart high. Cross in spades and lead a low spade towards the Q. I expect the King to rise on my left. If it drops stiff, I will rethink at that point, so in what follows I assume it appeared on the second round.
Now it depends on what LHO does. Btw, I think I am down on almost all lies and defences if RHO wins the spade K.
I cannot spell out here all of the branching lines that arise at this point.
However, I am planning, in broad terms, to win AK hearts, 2 top diamonds, 2 diamond ruffs with the 10 and the 9, a club A, a club ruff with the J, the spade A...all this gets me to 9 winners. If spades are 3-3 or LHO is 2-2 majors, then the spade Q is my 10th trick.
How I would time everything, and indeed whether I'd stick with this line, depends on what happens through trick 3, when I have led the spade towards the Q.
Friendly opps, those who think it a crime not to give honest count, will have made the hand easy. Better opps: well, I'll have to have my antennae working well or have a good lie of the cards.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari