[diana_eva]

This is board 7 of 8 in a short team match on BBO and you are 11 IMPs behind. R/R IMPs. Would you stretch or not?

You're playing 2/1 with a random but decent partner. You have not discussed what this sequence shows, give it your best shot:

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[hrothgar]

diana_eva, on 2014-May-30, 14:42, said:

This is board 7 of 8 in a short team match on BBO and you are 11 IMPs behind. R/R IMPs. Would you stretch or not?

You're playing 2/1 with a random but decent partner. You have not discussed what this sequence shows, give it your best shot:

---

All my points are in partner's suits.
I have JTx opposite what I think is a stiff.
I need a swing

I'm bidding ♥

[PhilKing]

Not that it is necessarily relevant, but why did I bid 1NT? 2♦ seems clear.

Anyway, a delayed 2♥ by partner should show extra values, so for 3♥ I expect partner to have about 18 points 4351 - five should have decent play. Even if he has a bit less, game will have a shot.

[Bbradley62]

hrothgar, on 2014-May-30, 14:56, said:

I need a swing

It might be more poker than bridge, but if I were ahead by 11 I'd probably bid 4♥ to prevent a swing. Therefore, maybe I should pass to allow one?

[diana_eva]

Bbradley62, on 2014-May-30, 15:22, said:

It might be more poker than bridge, but if I were ahead by 11 I'd probably bid 4♥ to prevent a swing. Therefore, maybe I should pass to allow one?

Interesting. I thought about that too at the table. Would the other table bid to game? How obvious is it, or will they bid it because they know we would bid it, etc. Dangerous stuff, i got caught in a loop trying to figure out what the others will do

[inquiry]

Vul at imps, I am bidding game. Partner is 4=3=5=1 or 4=3=6=0 with good stuff. I am glad to have the good heart intermediates ♥T87. Not vul or at matchpoint it is a harder problem.

[gszes]

It is more of a mathematical decision than super sound bridge. I
expect p to have around 16 and 4351 but what kind of 16 makes a huge
difference to our hand since we have decent intermediates if p has
aces and space3s 4h might have some decent play but the opps could
easily have enough to set us off the top if p has quacks.

We cannot expect a pass here to gain us a bunch of imps while a 4h
bid (though sketchy) has the potential to get us the needed imps
on this one hand. Opting to pass here (even if it is right) is
essentially saying this decision is not close enough to consider
bidding game so I will gamble next board will present the needed
opportunity. Seems like very optimistic logic. go for it

4h and if it is wrong you always can claim it was SOTM:)))))
I admit I would probably gamble it most of the time myself
unless I had a huge lead.

[the hog]

If I am behind I will bid 4H. If I was winning I would pass.

[rmnka447]

Bid 4 ♥ at IMPs.

IMP scoring says you should bid vulnerable games anytime it's about a 35% or more chance to make.

Partner has shown ♣ shortness, presumably 3 ♥s, and longer ♦ than ♠. You hold honors with intermediates in partner's suits and ♥s. They should mesh well with whatever partner holds in these suits. Partner could be as much as 18+ value, but certainly should have at last 16 to jump in ♥.

Finally, you are behind and this looks like a good hand to try to create a swing on.

[diana_eva]

Thanks everyone. This is another DE-bug of course. At the table I thought we should be in game but looking at my hand (and ignoring partner's shape) I thought it would be a good idea to bid 3NT. Down 2 on a club lead:

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Other table landed in 3NT as well and got a ♥ (!) lead, making +1.

As usual it all ended with a funny postmortem. Pd was unhappy with my choice, and said something like "I'd understand even if you bid 6♥ for a swing, but not 3NT!" "But look at my hand, doesn't it scream NT" I said. "I cannot answer that without risking to offend you" he said

[gwnn]

JTx opposite partner's singleton/void doesn't scream NT, no. I must admit my first reaction was to pass but that's wrong. Partner also had 2H available so 3h basically just asks us whether we had 5 hearts, not how strong we are.

[gszes]

diana_eva, on 2014-May-31, 01:41, said:

Thanks everyone. This is another DE-bug of course. At the table I thought we should be in game but looking at my hand (and ignoring partner's shape) I thought it would be a good idea to bid 3NT. Down 2 on a club lead:

---

Other table landed in 3NT as well and got a ♥ (!) lead, making +1.

As usual it all ended with a funny postmortem. Pd was unhappy with my choice, and said something like "I'd understand even if you bid 6♥ for a swing, but not 3NT!" "But look at my hand, doesn't it scream NT" I said. "I cannot answer that without risking to offend you" he said

a closer inspection of the bidding makes it seem partners hand looks absolutely nothing
like NT yours does indeed scream NT BUT it has a weakness (clubs) precisely where partner
rates to be short. This sort of holding should change the sound your hear as a symphony
from four harpists (I mean heartists).

[cherdano]

There are situations where it's right to make a different bid based on the state of the match, but this isn't one of them.

- I expect game to make over 50% of the time, so not bidding game is likely to cost quite a number of IMPS.
- If you are 11 IMPs behind, and you try to create a swing by passing, you can only gain 6 IMPs, while you are behind 11; I would have more sympathy for passing if we were down 5.
- If you are 11 IMPs ahead, you are giving the opponents a free shot to get within one overtrick of tying, or a small partscore swing of winning - why?

Your best shot when you are behind is to bid 4♥ and hope that the other table doesn't get to game, or gets to the wrong game, or gets to 4♥ and misguesses the play. Your best shot when you are leading is to bid 4♥ and hope to make, or to get a push in 4♥-1.

I am wondering - is everyone here just making such SOTM bids on BBF, or do you guys actually do this for real? If we are so bad at identifying good SOTM bids even when presented as a problem, doesn't that mean we'll be awful at it when it actually comes up, and we should just bid normally and hope for a random swing?

[kuhchung]

I've always felt it more normal to try and reach normal contracts and swing in the play, but without barometer I never know what is happening so just try to do my usual substandard stuff

[diana_eva]

cherdano, on 2014-June-01, 14:13, said:

...
I am wondering - is everyone here just making such SOTM bids on BBF, or do you guys actually do this for real? If we are so bad at identifying good SOTM bids even when presented as a problem, doesn't that mean we'll be awful at it when it actually comes up, and we should just bid normally and hope for a random swing?

I feel this is a bit unfair. Just like saying GIB sucks bec we only see stupid stuff posted here. I'll be happy to post a full series of brilliant swings in critical moments of various matches, however I'm not interested in improving what worked well. I'm much more interested in finding out what went wrong where I messed up.

If you meant it as a general comment for the feedback given so far by the other people who replied - well, it's the I/A We're bad and we know it. That's why these deals are posted, to fine-tune our judgement and learn from the more experienced players.

I do try and make unusual bids or stretch or whatever - when that's what it takes to win a match. So yeah, I do it for real, but still learning ofc.

For this particular deal I was confused about the bidding sequence. I thought with a strong 4-3-5-1 partner would jumpshift, hence to me this sequence did not mean 18+ points with 5 diamonds and 4 spades. I thought it was partner stretching already, without a hand good enough for a reverse. Or he is strong, but for some reason couldn't rebid 2NT (?) That's why it wasn't so obvious whether we should be in game and what strain. If he's stretching, should I stretch too? Is he really short in clubs and strong? Then why did he not reverse in the first place?

[gwnn]

Because that eats up a lot of space and forces to game. 5-4 hands are not usually strong enough for something like that, only some hands that look like 2♣ openings except he tried to save some space risking a first-round pass (although you will be bailed out by opps most of the time). 6-4 or 6-5 is more like it, but then he will usually not have a 3-card support for you. I like his sequence a lot, giving you a way out if you are very weak. But look at it another way: what else can he have? A balanced hand with diamonds will bid 2NT (instead of 1♠). A weak 4351 will raise immediately or maybe pass 1NT, an intermediate 4351 will make a delayed raise (1♦-1♥; 1♠-1NT; 2♥). So the only explanation is that he is very strong with 3 hearts but not quite strong enough to force to game. In a way we have an embarrassment of riches here since probably 1 delayed bid would also suffice (raising 1♥ on 3 with slightly stronger hands and putting strong 4351 also in the delayed 2♥), but we do have 2♥ and 3♥ available, so why not differentiate.

[diana_eva]

Yeah not saying he misbid, but still I did not find it clear at all. I probably should have thought more about it and understand he can only have this and he tried to save space to show heart support too.

[cherdano]

diana_eva, on 2014-June-02, 00:31, said:

I feel this is a bit unfair. Just like saying GIB sucks bec we only see stupid stuff posted here. I'll be happy to post a full series of brilliant swings in critical moments of various matches, however I'm not interested in improving what worked well. I'm much more interested in finding out what went wrong where I messed up.

If you meant it as a general comment for the feedback given so far by the other people who replied - well, it's the I/A We're bad and we know it. That's why these deals are posted, to fine-tune our judgement and learn from the more experienced players.

Oh I've done worse - my comment was directed at the replies in this thread making a case for bid x or bid y based on SOTM; at least some of them came from rather experienced players, yet were (in my view) completely wrong.

Quote

For this particular deal I was confused about the bidding sequence. I thought with a strong 4-3-5-1 partner would jumpshift, hence to me this sequence did not mean 18+ points with 5 diamonds and 4 spades. I thought it was partner stretching already, without a hand good enough for a reverse. Or he is strong, but for some reason couldn't rebid 2NT (?) That's why it wasn't so obvious whether we should be in game and what strain. If he's stretching, should I stretch too? Is he really short in clubs and strong? Then why did he not reverse in the first place?

Jumping to 2♠ would be a game force, I wouldn't typically do this with 18 hcp and no certainty of having a fit. On the actual sequence, I would expect partner to have 4=3=5=1 with good 17 or 18 hcp.

[mike777]

diana_eva, on 2014-May-30, 14:42, said:

This is board 7 of 8 in a short team match on BBO and you are 11 IMPs behind. R/R IMPs. Would you stretch or not?

You're playing 2/1 with a random but decent partner. You have not discussed what this sequence shows, give it your best shot:

---

To back up a second I think 2h here would invite game, not minimum drop dead( responder is roughly 6-11)


3h forces to 3nt or other game.


4=3=5=1

[whereagles]

Without looking at the hands, I would definitely bid on. All HCP are working, so this is really a no-brainer to me.

As for match conditions, I don't think this is close enough to take anti-percentage actions. Winning or losing, doesn't matter. 4H is good bridge in my book.