[Fluffy]

---

[TWO4BRIDGE]

6♠

[MrAce]

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2014-May-09, 16:44, said:

6♠

You don't fear a ♥ ruff I suppose. Otoh there is no 6 NT among so many options given, some of which sounds less desirable than 6 NT, so we can probably rule it out.

[mikeh]

6♠ to avoid giving away information. 7 may be cold, but I can't ask for the spade J without which I wouldn't bid grand even if I knew he had K AK in the minors.

If LHO doubles on a heart void, I can judge to bid 6N if I choose...the good thing is that he can't double on the club AK, since double demands a heart lead, so I might make even off 2 cashers. That is why, for instance, I won't cuebid diamonds here.

[gnasher]

I think bidding slam is completely over the top. Partner might have as little as AQJxxx x xxx Kxx, where even 4♠ might go down. I'd bid 5♥, and if partner signed off in 5♠ I'd be quite nervous about being too high.

[gszes]

5s is normally reserved for slam tries with concerns about
heart control so that bid seems out of the question. There
is enough "stuff" here to try for slam but as "gnasher notes"
arbitrarily jumping to slam just seems too much even if there
is a tactical advantage (mikeh).

5d

Is either a cue bid showing support and lack of a club control or
a deep desire to find a new partner. This "middle ground" action
keeps penalty doubles to a minimum and still makes reaching
a grand possible if p continues with 5h since the fear of an
opening round ruff is gone.

[whereagles]

pass. stay fixed

[cherdano]

gnasher, on 2014-May-09, 18:24, said:

I think bidding slam is completely over the top. Partner might have as little as AQJxxx x xxx Kxx, where even 4♠ might go down. I'd bid 5♥, and if partner signed off in 5♠ I'd be quite nervous about being too high.

And you didn't even mention that partner might just have 5 spades. (What else would BBF vote for with AQxxx x xx KJTxx? Even if you make the clubs AKJxx, slam is just borderline at best.)

I would pass. Partner's most likely shape in the majors is probably 6=1, he doesn't need many hcp with that shape to bid 4♠. The law of the minimum (partner is much more likely to have a minimum than to have extras) says that 5♠ isn't safe. Other shapes don't make bidding safer either - with 6=0 he needs even less to bid, with 5=1 we have an obvious problem, with 6=2 we have another obvious problem, etc.

[Phil]

cherdano, on 2014-May-10, 10:04, said:

(What else would BBF vote for with AQxxx x xx KJTxx? Even if you make the clubs AKJxx, slam is just borderline at best.)

We might be down in 4 with this hand. Or 5 could be OK.

What would BBF bid with AQJxxxx void Kxx Axx?

If MikeH is bidding on over 4♠ it must be right.

[cherdano]

Phil, on 2014-May-10, 10:44, said:

We might be down in 4 with this hand. Or 5 could be OK.

What would BBF bid with AQJxxxx void Kxx Axx?

If MikeH is bidding on over 4♠ it must be right.

Quiz problem: There are 6 relevant cards: ♠AQJ, ♦K, ♣AK. How often will partner hold 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 of them?

If we can agree on a rough minimum for the 4♠ bid, we could run a simulation. (I.e., start with some clear hard criteria, then go through them by hand to see which would match the auction so far. Then we can IMP pass versus 6♠.) I am more than happy to bet that pass will turn out to be a winner over 6♠.

[P_Marlowe]

5S

Asking for min / max.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Fluffy]

cherdano, on 2014-May-10, 12:36, said:

Quiz problem: There are 6 relevant cards: ♠AQJ, ♦K, ♣AK. How often will partner hold 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 of them?

If we can agree on a rough minimum for the 4♠ bid, we could run a simulation. (I.e., start with some clear hard criteria, then go through them by hand to see which would match the auction so far. Then we can IMP pass versus 6♠.) I am more than happy to bet that pass will turn out to be a winner over 6♠.

6♠, 5♦, 1♥ 1♣, ♣K will often be useless.

[MrAce]

See what a preempt can make to us. We have top players of the forum all taking different actions (pass-invite-blast slam)

Some concerned about the minimum holdings pd may hold when others expect more when the bid is made red vs white. Both expectations compromise something, the one that bids 4♠ at these colors with as minimum as Andy and Arend suggests compromise being doubled and disabling pd from forward going comfortably. Other one otoh, disables pd from bidding likely games over preempt with the fear that pd may go forward.

While both has their own problems, I am on the same page with those who can bid 4♠ as little as, if not less, Andy and Arend suggests. I know it may be risky red vs white, but it is also risky to let them play 4♥ for +50 +100 +150 when you have +620. Success rate of games vs slams after heavy preempt is better imho. Also it allows you to come on top and let opponents make a guess, which makes the space that was wasted for us be used against them now. It is always a challenge for the side which opens 4♥ white and easily let go 4♠ when their opponents bid it vulnerable.

I would probably pass or at most talk myself into invitation. I passed previous round relying on pd, that he can take action most of the time when our side has something. And he did. I know one thing for sure though, overcalling 4♠ over 4♥ is not necessarily same with bidding 4♠ on the pass out seat.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Fluffy, on 2014-May-10, 14:35, said:

6♠, 5♦, 1♥ 1♣, ♣K will often be useless.

What was partner's hand ( North )?

[Phil]

cherdano, on 2014-May-10, 12:36, said:

Quiz problem: There are 6 relevant cards: ♠AQJ, ♦K, ♣AK. How often will partner hold 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 of them?

If we can agree on a rough minimum for the 4♠ bid, we could run a simulation. (I.e., start with some clear hard criteria, then go through them by hand to see which would match the auction so far. Then we can IMP pass versus 6♠.) I am more than happy to bet that pass will turn out to be a winner over 6♠.

Who said anything about 6♠?

[cherdano]

Phil, on 2014-May-10, 21:22, said:

Who said anything about 6♠?

TWO4BRIDGE, on 2014-May-09, 16:44, said:

6♠

mikeh, on 2014-May-09, 17:42, said:

6♠ to avoid giving away information.

Simulating 5♥ is difficult as we would have to agree when partner would bid on.

[whereagles]

MrAce, on 2014-May-10, 14:47, said:

Some concerned about the minimum holdings pd may hold when others expect more when the bid is made red vs white. (...)

You can think of it the other way around as well: what do we have that may be unexpected to partner?

Our balanced 15-17 is about tops (w/ more = dbl), but is that average expectation? Probably not. 10-14 (or 3 tricks or so) should be about par. We got a bit more than that, probably enough for 11 tricks, but not for more unless pard has extras.

As you said, you can talk yourself to inviting. Blasting seems a bit optimistic.. but...

[Fluffy]

Partner had

♠QJ8xxx
♥-
♦J10x
♣Kxxx

10 tricks where the most possible in spades.

[MrAce]

Fluffy, on 2014-May-11, 13:17, said:

Partner had

♠QJ8xxx
♥-
♦J10x
♣Kxxx

10 tricks where the most possible in spades.

I know we should have asked before but what type of scoring?
What did you bid and what did other table(s) do?

I mean if 10 tricks were available, I would think even if you add ♣A to the other hand slam would be still off.

[Fluffy]

I bid 5NT to play 6♦ avoiding 5-2 fit. 6♦ went -500 when I missplayed it, but ♦K was onside. Unless LHO is inspired and leads ♠A from ♠A10xx, 6♦ would make adding ♣A to dummy.

It was IMP scoring.

Other table didn't get a 4 level preempt with 7 cards and got +620 or +600 don't remember