Lead: ♥8 (English style 2nd/4th, so could be J98, 98x, 98xx, 8x or 8.)
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Looks easy
#1
Posted 2014-May-10, 16:40
Lead: ♥8 (English style 2nd/4th, so could be J98, 98x, 98xx, 8x or 8.)
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#2
Posted 2014-May-10, 17:51
T1:♥A
T2:♦A
T3:♦ruff high
T4:♥K
T5:♦ ruff high. If diamonds are established claim 13 tricks,
If not:
T7: ♣A
T8:♦ ruff
T9: ♥Q and hope that either
a) somebody ruffs or
b) ♥J comes down, in which case you continue with the ♥10
If neither a) or b)
T10: ♠ ruff and hope trumps to be 3-2
This wins almost always if diamond can be established with 2 ruffs (a bit better than 50%). Even if hearts are 5-1 you loose only if somebody has a singleton in both hearts and clubs.
It rarely wins if diamonds are worse than 4-2.
If diamonds are 4-2 and the king is in the long hand you need trumps 3-2 or some luck in the heart department. (hearts 3-3 or ♥J dropping or that an opponent mistakenly ruffs the ♥Q)
If hearts are 5-1 (but trumps 3-2) you need that the heart ruff is taken by the hand with three trumps, which is quite likely, since West with 6♠-1♥-4♦-2♣ might have bid at some stage,
Playing on cross ruff lines is clearly worse since you need hearts 3-3. In this case the above line almost always wins too (except diamonds 5-1).
Taking an immediate diamond finesse is an interesting alternative, but if it loses and a spade comes back, you are in worse shape.
Rainer Herrmann
T2:♦A
T3:♦ruff high
T4:♥K
T5:♦ ruff high. If diamonds are established claim 13 tricks,
If not:
T7: ♣A
T8:♦ ruff
T9: ♥Q and hope that either
a) somebody ruffs or
b) ♥J comes down, in which case you continue with the ♥10
If neither a) or b)
T10: ♠ ruff and hope trumps to be 3-2
This wins almost always if diamond can be established with 2 ruffs (a bit better than 50%). Even if hearts are 5-1 you loose only if somebody has a singleton in both hearts and clubs.
It rarely wins if diamonds are worse than 4-2.
If diamonds are 4-2 and the king is in the long hand you need trumps 3-2 or some luck in the heart department. (hearts 3-3 or ♥J dropping or that an opponent mistakenly ruffs the ♥Q)
If hearts are 5-1 (but trumps 3-2) you need that the heart ruff is taken by the hand with three trumps, which is quite likely, since West with 6♠-1♥-4♦-2♣ might have bid at some stage,
Playing on cross ruff lines is clearly worse since you need hearts 3-3. In this case the above line almost always wins too (except diamonds 5-1).
Taking an immediate diamond finesse is an interesting alternative, but if it loses and a spade comes back, you are in worse shape.
Rainer Herrmann
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