[lesh]

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IMPS

[billw55]

Gruesome! With good defense I guess I pass. Anything could be horribly wrong though.

[rogerclee]

pass

[gnasher]

Looks a lot better.

On this one I would double. Compared with the other hand:
- With a small singleton spade it's much more likely that we have a game-bonus to protect.
- It's more likely that partner will sit it instead of bidding my short minor.
- My short minor isn't that short anyway.

[wyman]

Aside:
Passers -- how much more do you need before you'd double? Just curious.

I pass, too, but I feel like any of HK, HQ, DK, DA, or SA would be enough that I'd give serious consideration to dbl. Am I way off?

[nonexpert trying to calibrate ]

[akhare]

Pass and hope to collect 4 tricks.

[PhilKing]

Fed up with passing - this time I double.

[nige1]

lesh, on 2013-May-20, 13:26, said:

IMPS

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IMO Double = 10, Pass = 9, 5♣ = 6, 4N = 1. You'd probably prefer ♥K to ♣K.

[JLOGIC]

Would never pass in a million years

[JLOGIC]

wyman, on 2013-May-20, 14:04, said:

Aside:
Passers -- how much more do you need before you'd double? Just curious.

I pass, too, but I feel like any of HK, HQ, DK, DA, or SA would be enough that I'd give serious consideration to dbl. Am I way off?

[nonexpert trying to calibrate ]

You are far too conservative here if those cards would just give you serious consideration (well maybe not the HQ but an extra ace or K is a snappity snap X).

[JLOGIC]

Do people expect partner to typically bid or pass with 5332? With most people I play with (ie not JOE GRUE) I would expect a pass with 5332 a large majority of the time, certainly with a trump trick.

[gnasher]

JLOGIC, on 2013-May-20, 21:42, said:

Do people expect partner to typically bid or pass with 5332? With most people I play with (ie not JOE GRUE) I would expect a pass with 5332 a large majority of the time, certainly with a trump trick.

I think a 5332 should normally pass. I'd need something like xx xxx KQJ10x xxx to bid, and I'm not even sure about that.

[rogerclee]

I did a quick sim and just looked at hands where I thought opening 4M was at least reasonable without DD analysis or anything. Preliminary results say 5C shouldn't be discounted so easily, it's not doing too bad so far. Double seems to have tremendous upside and downside (on one hand partner has a clear 5D bid and diamonds are 6-0 with KQ9xxx behind), will need to look at more hands, but currently it looks better than pass.

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2013-May-20, 21:42, said:

Do people expect partner to typically bid or pass with 5332? With most people I play with (ie not JOE GRUE) I would expect a pass with 5332 a large majority of the time, certainly with a trump trick.

I would pass with 5m332, but consider bidding with 5♥332 as partner will always have hearts, but the minors are less clear.

[cherdano]

There is no difference between hearts and the minors on this auction (unless you REALLY care about an extra 50 points), so you should treat them the same.

EDIT: That's not quite true - with 1462 we could X and bid 5D, which we can't do with 1264. But still, I don't think that is a frequent enough difference to justify changing your response with 5332.

[JLOGIC]

rogerclee, on 2013-May-21, 01:05, said:

I did a quick sim and just looked at hands where I thought opening 4M was at least reasonable without DD analysis or anything. Preliminary results say 5C shouldn't be discounted so easily, it's not doing too bad so far. Double seems to have tremendous upside and downside (on one hand partner has a clear 5D bid and diamonds are 6-0 with KQ9xxx behind), will need to look at more hands, but currently it looks better than pass.

Thanks, and yeah it would take a lot of hands to get any idea but if one of pass or X came out as clearly better over like 40 hands that might mean something. If it was pretty close that might mean that it's probably pretty close. Are there any hands where partner bid and RHO had a decision on whether to bid 5S or not?

[JLOGIC]

gnasher, on 2013-May-21, 00:54, said:

I think a 5332 should normally pass. I'd need something like xx xxx KQJ10x xxx to bid, and I'm not even sure about that.

I am with you on this fwiw. My point was basically that a 5D bid is not likely and if it does occur partner will have 6+ diamonds (if he has 5/4 he will bid 4N) so it might be ok. I think that partner passing the double is a big upside position for us and is pretty likely when we have this hand but clee thinks I'm overestimating that hence the sim.

[rogerclee]

JLOGIC, on 2013-May-21, 01:27, said:

Thanks, and yeah it would take a lot of hands to get any idea but if one of pass or X came out as clearly better over like 40 hands that might mean something. If it was pretty close that might mean that it's probably pretty close. Are there any hands where partner bid and RHO had a decision on whether to bid 5S or not?

Yeah, I tried to be neutral and just look at them and be honest. I've looked at about 30 hands so far, sorry I didn't calculate actual IMP gains/losses. My friend Eugene Hung did some analysis into the problem and I will look at his hands later.

Things I learned:

1) It's wrong to pass, not that close.
2) 4SX is not a great auction for your side, for a not-so unexpected but unintuitive reason. Partner is usually just balanced, and given how weak our diamonds are, and how his diamonds are not good enough to bid, they have a double spade+diamond fit, or dummy's diamond values are all working.
3) Partner bids 5D surprisingly infrequently, way less than I thought, he usually either passes or has a 4N bid available. Seeing partner bid 4N is a huge winner for your side, usually they sell out to 5C/5H but nobody can really double, or they take the push. When partner bids diamonds it's pretty bad but not necessarily so, I saw 2 hands where it's pretty normal for them to take the push, saving you from the 5-2 fit when the 4S bidder is the one with diamond length.
4) 5C, which I thought was a really bad bid, is a serious contender, but it's going to take more analysis to decide if it's better than X, which I guess I can look at in more detail tomorrow. I spent most of my time analyzing pass vs X, when it's now obvious I should have been looking at X vs 5C.

Anyway, overall a learning experience for me.

[JLOGIC]

rogerclee, on 2013-May-21, 01:38, said:

2) 4SX is not a great auction for your side, for a not-so unexpected but unintuitive reason. Partner is usually just balanced, and given how weak our diamonds are, and how his diamonds are not good enough to bid, they have a double spade+diamond fit, or dummy's diamond values are all working.

This makes sense, even having Qx of diamonds would be much better. I still think Xing with this shape is usually right but be weary of xx diamonds I guess. I assume partner is also leading a diamond a fair amount.

Anyways I'm not gonna be the first guy bidding 5C and getting made fun of so glad you ruled out pass

[gnasher]

cherdano, on 2013-May-21, 01:23, said:

There is no difference between hearts and the minors on this auction (unless you REALLY care about an extra 50 points), so you should treat them the same.

The more hearts partner has, the more likely it is that we have a game-bonus to protect. Does that mean that holding four hearts should make him more inclined to act on a marginal hand, or does it make no difference?